It's day 2 of the early signing period...

#26
#26
overseasorange2 said:
But I bet a higher PERCENTAGE of 4 stars and 5 stars make it then the 3 stars.
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He didn't say anything about 4 & 5 star recruits. His point was that 26 3 star players made the pro bowl. Spin it anyway you want dude---facts are facts. I'm glad Pruitt wants all his recruits to camp so his staff can evaluate their talent. He's said many times that stars mean nothing to this staff----talent does.
 
#27
#27
I always look at the ratings like this. the ratings matter for freshmen and sophomores, but by the time they are juniors they all have been in a college strength program for 2 years. The 5* that don’t pan out and the 3* that are starters are due to the work they put in, the coaches, scheme fit.
 
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#28
#28
Batman1948 said:
He didn't say anything about 4 & 5 star recruits. His point was that 26 3 star players made the pro bowl. Spin it anyway you want dude---facts are facts. I'm glad Pruitt wants all his recruits to camp so his staff can evaluate their talent. He's said many times that stars mean nothing to this staff----talent does.
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Well if your goal as a Vols fan is to see how many 3* we can put in a pro bowl then those facts might matter. If you’re like me on the other hand and care more about winning SEC and NCAA championships, those facts don’t mean crap. You’re right when you say people can spin it any way they want. That’s exactly what you’re doing by trying to use data from the NFL to make a NCAA argument. Look at the recruiting classes of the last 10 SEC and NCAA championship winners (you know, what we’re actually trying to accomplish) and you’ll discover the only facts that matter.
 
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#30
#30
BigOrangeMojo said:
I bet they do.

Over a four year period (which is the approximate NFL career length), over 5,000 kids will be rated 3*. If you divide 26/5000 , that is 1/2 of 1% of all 3* players that make the Pro Bowl. There are approximately 120 5* over a 4 year period. If only 1 5* makes the Pro Bowl, that's 1%, or twice the percentage.
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I think the better assessment would be to start with the players actually in the nfl and then look at their high school star ratings. From there, look to see how many 3 and below stars and how many 4-5 stars make the pro bowl. 4-5 star players benefit from being in better programs typically with better coaches, better facilities, better players to practice against, etc compared to many of the 1-3 star players. These factors also play into the further development of the higher rated players.

I’m not going to do the work, but it would be interesting to see the star ratings of the NFL draft picks from the last few years.
 
#31
#31
Pride85 said:
You are correct, there is a higher percentage. It is also a fact that they powers that be miss VERY badly as well. See if you recognize any of these players from LAST year's Pro Bowl that were either 2 stars or not even rated coming out of high school.

2 Star
Khalil Mack
Aqib Talib

Not rated
Antonio Brown
Tom Brady
Ben Roethlisberger
Michael Bennett
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Brady was a highly sought after recruit in a very different era of recruiting.
 
#32
#32
Halph66 said:
Not sure about this math. Each NFL team is allowed to have 53 players on its roster (plus a five-player practice squad). The NFL has 32 teams, making a total of 1,696 players.
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The 5,000 number I was referencing was the total number of players who are 3* coming out of HS over a 4 year period (Which is actually about 5,700 kids). Of this 5,700 players who got 3* coming out of HS, over 5,000 of them never make the NFL and of the ones who do, 26 made the Pro Bowl this year.
 
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#33
#33
VolsFan-TX said:
I think the better assessment would be to start with the players actually in the nfl and then look at their high school star ratings. From there, look to see how many 3 and below stars and how many 4-5 stars make the pro bowl. 4-5 star players benefit from being in better programs typically with better coaches, better facilities, better players to practice against, etc compared to many of the 1-3 star players. These factors also play into the further development of the higher rated players.

I’m not going to do the work, but it would be interesting to see the star ratings of the NFL draft picks from the last few years.
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I would assume that most of the players in the NFL are 2* or 3* players just due to sheer numbers. Each year, there are approximately 3,250 players that are 2* or 3* coming out of HS and 30 players that are 5*. Over a 4 year time period, there are approximately 120 5* players coming out of HS and 13,000 2* and 3* players. Factoring in injuries, practice squads, and active rosters, there are about 1,700-1,800 players that play in the NFL each season. Even if every 5* player hit, there are still 1,600 roster spots available for non 5* players.
 
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#34
#34
I think there is a "tipping point" between the number/quality of "stars" on a roster and the S&C/motivational ability/scheme/game-day coaching. In other words, could Belichick with a roster full of 2 and 3*s beat Alabama or UGA - probably not. But at what point does superior coaching cancel out the need for a massive amount of 4 & 5-star players? Consider how lower ranked schools, playing in bowl games, often defeat (or play very competitively til the final whistle) many schools whose historical recruiting classes were far superior.

Fulmer was the antithesis of this in the 90s. Other than UF, so many of the other SEC powers were down. Fulmer literally out-talented everyone he played (for the most part). Spurrier said this often and poked fun at Fulmer and UT b/c of the disparity in talent with sayings like "You can't spell Citrus without U.T."

Could a Belichick beat Saban or Smart with a roster comprised of 50% 3*s; 40% 4*s; and 10% 5*s? Perhaps, but if not, it would sure be close IMHO. No blowouts.

I wish coaches were constantly evaluated on a "star" system to include W/L; recruiting rankings; graduation rate; assistant coaching turnover and off-field problems.
 
#37
#37
Pride85 said:
You are correct, there is a higher percentage. It is also a fact that they powers that be miss VERY badly as well. See if you recognize any of these players from LAST year's Pro Bowl that were either 2 stars or not even rated coming out of high school.

2 Star
Khalil Mack
Aqib Talib

Not rated
Antonio Brown
Tom Brady
Ben Roethlisberger
Michael Bennett
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Our problem, besides not signing enough 4's and 5's, is that we've not identified any of these types of players. Our 2's and 3's, as a whole, have played like 2's and 3's. That I can think of, I guess John Kelly could be one.
 
#38
#38
utvols74 said:
I think there is a "tipping point" between the number/quality of "stars" on a roster and the S&C/motivational ability/scheme/game-day coaching. In other words, could Belichick with a roster full of 2 and 3*s beat Alabama or UGA - probably not. But at what point does superior coaching cancel out the need for a massive amount of 4 & 5-star players? Consider how lower ranked schools, playing in bowl games, often defeat (or play very competitively til the final whistle) many schools whose historical recruiting classes were far superior.

Fulmer was the antithesis of this in the 90s. Other than UF, so many of the other SEC powers were down. Fulmer literally out-talented everyone he played (for the most part). Spurrier said this often and poked fun at Fulmer and UT b/c of the disparity in talent with sayings like "You can't spell Citrus without U.T."

Could a Belichick beat Saban or Smart with a roster comprised of 50% 3*s; 40% 4*s; and 10% 5*s? Perhaps, but if not, it would sure be close IMHO. No blowouts.

I wish coaches were constantly evaluated on a "star" system to include W/L; recruiting rankings; graduation rate; assistant coaching turnover and off-field problems.
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This is where UT's pushed it's chips on the table w/ Pruitt. S/C, not losing players to defections, developing players towards a common vision of team works. Gut tells me Pruitt will do a good job here with all the above. I'd guess OL is at top of his priority list. He's going to look alot smarter if he can get his OL to run block and give JG time to throw. That, in itself will start to build momentum for us. We're not devoid of talent, but our OL/DL play this year will determine how much improvement Pruitt has in Y2. Also, having an OC sooner than later, in the off season, would help.
 
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#39
#39
If there wasn't a near 100% correlation between successful football programs and their recruiting class rankings, I would completely dismiss the notion of star rankings. However there IS, therefore I am sort of forced to pay attention to it. I've been saying it for a while but if we are content with winning between 7-9 games per year and going to a bowl game, then we should be fine with what we are doing in recruiting. However if we want to be serious about competing for SEC/National Championships, we need to start consistently finishing somewhere in the top 5 in recruiting year in and year out.
 
#40
#40
Mccage said:
Or maybe some like the 26 3 stars that made the pro bowl
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Roughly 3225 players sign D1 football scholarships every year, 129 programs X 25 recruits per school. Out of those about 200 are listed as 4 and 5 stars. Every year there are 224 players drafted to the NFL, so yes there will be some 3 star players that either developed late or the scouts just missed on. However 9 times out of 10 that isn't the case, so while I know your reply was meant to be optimistic and attempt to justify signing 3 stars it just doesn't translate well in the SEC. If you can win with 3 stars, why have Mississippi State, Vandy, Arkansas, Tennessee, UK, Mizzou, South Carolina all been absent from Atlanta? Remember when Fulmer was running the SEC? Those were brought to you by top 5 classes.
 
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#42
#42
AndyMizunogolfer said:
I think mine is down to a 1* after the past 10 + years.
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#44
#44
I can't help but think that better performance in the second half against Vanderbilt producing a "W" thus projecting UT to bowl-season excitement and further development wouldn't have flipped a 4* (or 2, 3, etc.). That game has echos into next fall. If the rumor is true about the locker-room, half-time antics, then someone (coachs/players/admin) needs to be taken behind the wood-shed big time.
 
#45
#45
njvols said:
This is where UT's pushed it's chips on the table w/ Pruitt. S/C, not losing players to defections, developing players towards a common vision of team works. Gut tells me Pruitt will do a good job here with all the above. I'd guess OL is at top of his priority list. He's going to look alot smarter if he can get his OL to run block and give JG time to throw. That, in itself will start to build momentum for us. We're not devoid of talent, but our OL/DL play this year will determine how much improvement Pruitt has in Y2. Also, having an OC sooner than later, in the off season, would help.
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Agree. Its impossible to beat Alabama (or Georgia) right now in recruiting rankings because our on field results haven't been good. So, it will take developing players better, less defections, and perhaps finding more 'diamonds in the rough'. I hope Pruitt can do it but the odds are against it. In my opinion, the only coach in the SEC in the past 20 years who has taken a program from the ground floor into the high echelons is Saban (LSU).
 
#46
#46
Brave Volunteer said:
If there wasn't a near 100% correlation between successful football programs and their recruiting class rankings, I would completely dismiss the notion of star rankings. However there IS, therefore I am sort of forced to pay attention to it. I've been saying it for a while but if we are content with winning between 7-9 games per year and going to a bowl game, then we should be fine with what we are doing in recruiting. However if we want to be serious about competing for SEC/National Championships, we need to start consistently finishing somewhere in the top 5 in recruiting year in and year out.
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It is of course logical that the 4 and 5 star guys, typically shaving by the eighth grade and obviously bigger and faster than the majority of HS players will be more successful, but as far as math goes you cannot include ALL three stars in any analysis. You would have to refine the number in the calculation to say three stars that have been offered by say 3 or more power 5 schools. An interesting study would be what percent of three star players recruited during our coaches tenure at each school were drafted or invited to the pro bowl.

I have always held that stars should be used in probability calculations but NEVER used as ceilings for a player. Way too much variability in maturation for each kid, quality of coaching through HS, access to training facilities, level of HS program, the depth chart they had to fight through and therefore inclusion in analysis by the services.

Coaches are not blindly reaching into the vast three star player bucket and plucking a few out..... they often get to see more of the relative film late in the kids HS years and Juco rather than relying on services who have already dropped them into a pool based in large part on soph and junior films and then making limited adjustments... they do a lot of good work, but as so often stated, it is not an exact science when input used for evaluation for each kid varies so much... higher risk, you bet.... but for folks to attack a kid selected by a staff on the first day of ES period is just stupid, Late in the afternoon in Feb is a bit different I think.... No need for real reaches yesterday....
 
#47
#47
The difference between a 3/4 star and 5 star is the 5 star may feel entitled since he has already done the work to earn his stars. The 3/4 star who wants to play in the NFL as much as the 5 star knows there is still work to do and commit to that work. I would think coaching the best from a 5 star is harder than from a 3/4 star. Trust me, I know this because I have a 5 star heart :)
 
#48
#48
VolsFan-TX said:
I think the better assessment would be to start with the players actually in the nfl and then look at their high school star ratings. From there, look to see how many 3 and below stars and how many 4-5 stars make the pro bowl. 4-5 star players benefit from being in better programs typically with better coaches, better facilities, better players to practice against, etc compared to many of the 1-3 star players. These factors also play into the further development of the higher rated players.

I’m not going to do the work, but it would be interesting to see the star ratings of the NFL draft picks from the last few years.
Click to expand...

I saw it listed on ESPN that the last 6 national champion teams were in the top 4 in recruiting (stars). The evaluating groups do a pretty good job of identifying talent. They aren't perfect, but it doesn't seem to be too terribly far off.
 
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#49
#49
VolJarhead said:
I saw it listed on ESPN that the last 6 national champion teams were in the top 4 in recruiting (stars). The evaluating groups do a pretty good job of identifying talent. They aren't perfect, but it doesn't seem to be too terribly far off.
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I suspect that the evaluations have also gotten better over time. Better objective assessments. It wouldn't surprise me if the evaluating services have some sophisticated machine learning algorithms developed in-house where they are running analyses on individual players and estimating their probability of reaching the NFL.
 
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