DiderotsGhost
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For years, I made a living by betting against “the herd.” I’d find investment opportunities that people hated but I knew were fundamentally strong based on deep research. I was one of the best in the US at it, but life as a start-up investment manager was tough in spite of my great performance record, so I switched careers and got into data science. Despite the career switch, I still have the same mindset - “the herd” makes knee-jerk emotive decisions and is frequently wrong.
I only mention this background because now is the time to go against the “herd behavior” in VN. Everyone is unhappy with the Vandy game, including me. It’s the worst we’ve played all season. It’s the type of game that will leave us miserable for 9 more months. Or at least 8 more months … when D4H and a few others pop in to make their 15-0 predictions for next season.
Many want mass firings and to start the 7th string QB! Let's try to analyze things more rationally. It was an awful game, but we should also step back and examine the overall situation. But let’s start with the ugly truths of the Vandy game.
The Ugly
Outcoached. We’ve struggled in many games this season due to some combination of lack of talent at O-line, lack of depth, inexperience, and poor execution. This is the first game where I felt like we were outcoached on both sides of the ball, but particularly on defense.
Quitting This is very unfortunate but we had players that quit on the team these past few weeks. This is an issue and let’s hope Pruitt “cleans house” in the offseason.
Vandy’s O clobbered us. Sure, the offense played poorly as well, but our defense was horrendous. Vandy’s OC outschemed Pruitt. Shurmur was 31 for 35 for 367 yards and 3 TDs. You’re not going to win many games where the opposing team’s QB has 90% accuracy and throws for over 10 ypa.
7 out of 10 possessions. Vandy *SHOULD’VE* scored on 7 / 10 full possessions (their kicker botched a chip-shot FG on one). In comparison, we scored on 2 / 11 possessions. We should’ve scored more, but our D gave us no chance to win this game. I don’t know why people are blaming Helton; no OC in this country was scoring 39 points with this O-line.
Missed tackles. How many missed tackles did we have? I don’t know if there’s a quick way to find that stat, but I’m sure it was a lot.
JG’s worst game. I thought this was JG’s worst game this season, as well. He’s generally been good this year, but he had a few bad decisions in this one and a few bad passes, too. That deep pass to Callaway, in particular, was terribly thrown. Don’t worry, VolNation, I haven’t changed my mind on JG. I still think he’s the future at QB and he’s one of the better QBs in the SEC, but this was his worst game this year. It’s not all on him, though. Felt like for the first time this season, the O-line struggles got “in his head.” He’s good and he has the potential to be elite nevertheless if we can get him more help.
D-line could be worse next season. The scariest thing IMO is that the D-line could be worse next year, as we lose all 3 starters (Phillips, Tuttle, and A. Johnson), as well as Paul Bain. Phillips had a breakout year this season. Tuttle came on strong at the end of the year, too. It really sucks to lose these 4 guys and know that we’ll still be “rebuilding” at one position group at a bare minimum next season.
First Year Coaches
Now that we got “the bad” out of the way, let’s look at the big picture. Coaches are rarely successful in Year 1 in the modern age of recruiting limits (Johnny Majors' turnaround at Pitt involved a signing class of 85!) There are few good examples of it happening and almost all turnaround jobs have taken at a bare minimum till Year 2, and sometimes, till Year 3 or 4. Year 1 is more of an extension of the previous coach than a reflection of the current coach.
Let’s look at some examples.
Nick Saban @ Bama. 7-6, with a loss to Louisiana-Monroe. Saban barely made a bowl game in Year 1.
Don James @ Washington. 6-5. Took till Year 3 to become competitive. Lost to 52-0 to Bama. Barely made a bowl game in Y1. Took about 5-7 years to turn Washington into a national power and eventually won a national championship and had 6 Rose Bowl appearances. James was, btw, Saban's mentor.
Barry Alvarez @ Wisconsin. 1-10. Took over one of the worst Big 10 programs historically. First three years were a disaster. Took till Year 4 to make a bowl game, but he went to the Rose Bowl and finished #5 in the nation that season. Ended up with 3 Rose Bowl wins before all was said and done.
Mike Leach @ Wash State. 3-9. Inherited a program in the dumpster. Took till Year 4 to make a bowl game and get a 9-win campaign. In Year 7, he has a 10-win season and was in the national championship conversation in what is arguably one of the toughest P5 jobs out there.
Dabo Swinney @ Clemson. 9-5. He went 6-7 in Year 2. Didn’t fully “turn the corner” till his fourth full year (5th overall year). Has finished in the top 15 every year since then, with 3 top 5 finishes, and a national title.
Jim Harbaugh @ Stanford. 4-8. Took till Year 3 to make a bowl game. Went to Orange bowl with #4 national finish in Year 4. Took over a Pac-12 doormat and molded it into a Pac-12 power.
The point. There are dozens more examples. The point isn’t that Pruitt is guaranteed to be a success. Rather, it’s that you really can’t tell very much about a coach from Year 1. The first year tells you more about the previous coach than the current coach. We’ll learn more about Pruitt over the next couple of years.
The Good Moving Forward
Our coaches can teach. Player development and recruiting are more important than anything else in college football. More important than X’s and O’s. Our coaching staff knows how to teach. The benefits of good player development can often take a few seasons to realize. It’s rare you see it immediately in Year 1.
JG is a top 5 SEC QB and we have him for 2 more years. He didn’t look it vs Vandy, but JG has been pretty good this year when you consider the O-line he’s played behind. He had two poor games IMO (Florida and Vandy), 1 great game (Auburn), 2 injury games (Bama + Mizzou), and 7 good games. This was only his first full season and many of the QBs that played better than him were Seniors. The things JG is good at are difficult to coach, namely toughness and accuracy. The things he needs to work on are very learnable and coachable (reading defenses, audibles, going through progressions).
Ty Chandler. While his stats don’t fully tell the story, I think Chandler is a top 5 SEC RB. 5.5 ypc in spite of getting little help from the O-line in most games. He also had 183 yards receiving. He’s a major threat and he’ll look even better if we can fix the O-line.
Tim Jordan. Also a very good RB. More dependent, however, upon good blocking to make things happen than Ty Chandler. He’ll also look better behind an improved O-line.
WRs. Assuming Jennings and Callaway return next season, we’ll be loaded at WR. Even if one of them leaves for the NFL, we’ll still have an array of options with Josh Palmer, Jordan Murphy, and Dominick Wood-Anderson (TE).
The O-line will get better. We have one of the top-rated O-line recruits in the nation coming in (Wanya Morris). We have a good shot at another (Darnell Wright). Another blue chip (Jackson Lampley), and 2 more good prospects. If we land Wright, we’ll have the best O-line recruiting class in the country. We might not be elite over night, but this O-line will be better in the coming years than it was this year.
We have a good offensive staff. Didn’t look it in this game, but I’m very happy with the offensive staff’s performance. Helton’s play-calling has helped us win 2 games we probably shouldn’t have won and almost 3 games (stupid South Carolina!). He’s had to outscheme opponents with a terrible O-line, which is not easy to do. David Johnson is one of the best WR coaches in the country. I like that we have Chris Weinke, as well.
Helton is a great QB Coach. He already molded Sam Darnold, a #3 NFL draft pick. If you don’t think recruits care about stuff like that, you’re being naïve. The great recruits want to be coached by coaches with great track records of development. Having Helton is a huge plus; not to mention the fact that we also have a Heisman winning QB on staff.
We don’t lose key players on offense. It’s possible that we could lose 1 or 2 players early, but in all likelihood, we’re returning almost every key player on offense next season.
Our secondary will be more experienced. We played a lot of young players in the secondary, so we’ll get better there as well.
The SEC East gets easier next season.This was actually the toughest the SEC East has been in over a decade. Mizzou, Kentucky, and Vandy all had teams with experience Seniors at key positions. We’re the only team not losing a lot of key players (outside of the D-line).
Overall
Wait till we have better cards. 5-7 sucks and the Vandy loss stings, but Pruitt was dealt a pretty terrible hand. This is arguably the worst O-line in UT history and losing both Trey Smith and Kennedy hurt badly! The O-line issues undermined the entire offense. Eliminate the OL issues and this is a different team. We win the SC game and the Mizzou and Florida games are both winnable. In spite of the ugly scores in both of those games, the games were lopsided primarily because of turnovers.
We saw improvement. It was a disappointing end, but we beat two top 25 teams, which is pretty impressive for a new coach, and certainly an improvement over last season’s 0-8 win-loss record in the conference. At our best, we looked pretty good versus Kentucky and Auburn, but we saw reversions as well, particularly versus Vandy.
Similar to Harbaugh’s 1st year at Stanford. I’m not suggesting the outcome will be the same, but it was pretty similar to Harbaugh’s 1st year at Stanford when he went 4-8, but managed to upset #2 USC on the road. Stanford showed hints of improvement during Harbaugh’s first two years, but still got blown out in many games. Three years later, they win the Orange Bowl and finish #4 in the nation.
Don't be knee-jerk. We're going to learn more about Pruitt next season. For now, best to hold off judgement. Get some more players in there that will give their all every play. We'll evaluate where we are in another 12 months. And again in 24 months. We'll have a better sense at that point.
Time to follow recruiting! At least for the next few months.
GBO!
I only mention this background because now is the time to go against the “herd behavior” in VN. Everyone is unhappy with the Vandy game, including me. It’s the worst we’ve played all season. It’s the type of game that will leave us miserable for 9 more months. Or at least 8 more months … when D4H and a few others pop in to make their 15-0 predictions for next season.
Many want mass firings and to start the 7th string QB! Let's try to analyze things more rationally. It was an awful game, but we should also step back and examine the overall situation. But let’s start with the ugly truths of the Vandy game.
The Ugly
Outcoached. We’ve struggled in many games this season due to some combination of lack of talent at O-line, lack of depth, inexperience, and poor execution. This is the first game where I felt like we were outcoached on both sides of the ball, but particularly on defense.
Quitting This is very unfortunate but we had players that quit on the team these past few weeks. This is an issue and let’s hope Pruitt “cleans house” in the offseason.
Vandy’s O clobbered us. Sure, the offense played poorly as well, but our defense was horrendous. Vandy’s OC outschemed Pruitt. Shurmur was 31 for 35 for 367 yards and 3 TDs. You’re not going to win many games where the opposing team’s QB has 90% accuracy and throws for over 10 ypa.
7 out of 10 possessions. Vandy *SHOULD’VE* scored on 7 / 10 full possessions (their kicker botched a chip-shot FG on one). In comparison, we scored on 2 / 11 possessions. We should’ve scored more, but our D gave us no chance to win this game. I don’t know why people are blaming Helton; no OC in this country was scoring 39 points with this O-line.
Missed tackles. How many missed tackles did we have? I don’t know if there’s a quick way to find that stat, but I’m sure it was a lot.
JG’s worst game. I thought this was JG’s worst game this season, as well. He’s generally been good this year, but he had a few bad decisions in this one and a few bad passes, too. That deep pass to Callaway, in particular, was terribly thrown. Don’t worry, VolNation, I haven’t changed my mind on JG. I still think he’s the future at QB and he’s one of the better QBs in the SEC, but this was his worst game this year. It’s not all on him, though. Felt like for the first time this season, the O-line struggles got “in his head.” He’s good and he has the potential to be elite nevertheless if we can get him more help.
D-line could be worse next season. The scariest thing IMO is that the D-line could be worse next year, as we lose all 3 starters (Phillips, Tuttle, and A. Johnson), as well as Paul Bain. Phillips had a breakout year this season. Tuttle came on strong at the end of the year, too. It really sucks to lose these 4 guys and know that we’ll still be “rebuilding” at one position group at a bare minimum next season.
First Year Coaches
Now that we got “the bad” out of the way, let’s look at the big picture. Coaches are rarely successful in Year 1 in the modern age of recruiting limits (Johnny Majors' turnaround at Pitt involved a signing class of 85!) There are few good examples of it happening and almost all turnaround jobs have taken at a bare minimum till Year 2, and sometimes, till Year 3 or 4. Year 1 is more of an extension of the previous coach than a reflection of the current coach.
Let’s look at some examples.
Nick Saban @ Bama. 7-6, with a loss to Louisiana-Monroe. Saban barely made a bowl game in Year 1.
Don James @ Washington. 6-5. Took till Year 3 to become competitive. Lost to 52-0 to Bama. Barely made a bowl game in Y1. Took about 5-7 years to turn Washington into a national power and eventually won a national championship and had 6 Rose Bowl appearances. James was, btw, Saban's mentor.
Barry Alvarez @ Wisconsin. 1-10. Took over one of the worst Big 10 programs historically. First three years were a disaster. Took till Year 4 to make a bowl game, but he went to the Rose Bowl and finished #5 in the nation that season. Ended up with 3 Rose Bowl wins before all was said and done.
Mike Leach @ Wash State. 3-9. Inherited a program in the dumpster. Took till Year 4 to make a bowl game and get a 9-win campaign. In Year 7, he has a 10-win season and was in the national championship conversation in what is arguably one of the toughest P5 jobs out there.
Dabo Swinney @ Clemson. 9-5. He went 6-7 in Year 2. Didn’t fully “turn the corner” till his fourth full year (5th overall year). Has finished in the top 15 every year since then, with 3 top 5 finishes, and a national title.
Jim Harbaugh @ Stanford. 4-8. Took till Year 3 to make a bowl game. Went to Orange bowl with #4 national finish in Year 4. Took over a Pac-12 doormat and molded it into a Pac-12 power.
The point. There are dozens more examples. The point isn’t that Pruitt is guaranteed to be a success. Rather, it’s that you really can’t tell very much about a coach from Year 1. The first year tells you more about the previous coach than the current coach. We’ll learn more about Pruitt over the next couple of years.
The Good Moving Forward
Our coaches can teach. Player development and recruiting are more important than anything else in college football. More important than X’s and O’s. Our coaching staff knows how to teach. The benefits of good player development can often take a few seasons to realize. It’s rare you see it immediately in Year 1.
JG is a top 5 SEC QB and we have him for 2 more years. He didn’t look it vs Vandy, but JG has been pretty good this year when you consider the O-line he’s played behind. He had two poor games IMO (Florida and Vandy), 1 great game (Auburn), 2 injury games (Bama + Mizzou), and 7 good games. This was only his first full season and many of the QBs that played better than him were Seniors. The things JG is good at are difficult to coach, namely toughness and accuracy. The things he needs to work on are very learnable and coachable (reading defenses, audibles, going through progressions).
Ty Chandler. While his stats don’t fully tell the story, I think Chandler is a top 5 SEC RB. 5.5 ypc in spite of getting little help from the O-line in most games. He also had 183 yards receiving. He’s a major threat and he’ll look even better if we can fix the O-line.
Tim Jordan. Also a very good RB. More dependent, however, upon good blocking to make things happen than Ty Chandler. He’ll also look better behind an improved O-line.
WRs. Assuming Jennings and Callaway return next season, we’ll be loaded at WR. Even if one of them leaves for the NFL, we’ll still have an array of options with Josh Palmer, Jordan Murphy, and Dominick Wood-Anderson (TE).
The O-line will get better. We have one of the top-rated O-line recruits in the nation coming in (Wanya Morris). We have a good shot at another (Darnell Wright). Another blue chip (Jackson Lampley), and 2 more good prospects. If we land Wright, we’ll have the best O-line recruiting class in the country. We might not be elite over night, but this O-line will be better in the coming years than it was this year.
We have a good offensive staff. Didn’t look it in this game, but I’m very happy with the offensive staff’s performance. Helton’s play-calling has helped us win 2 games we probably shouldn’t have won and almost 3 games (stupid South Carolina!). He’s had to outscheme opponents with a terrible O-line, which is not easy to do. David Johnson is one of the best WR coaches in the country. I like that we have Chris Weinke, as well.
Helton is a great QB Coach. He already molded Sam Darnold, a #3 NFL draft pick. If you don’t think recruits care about stuff like that, you’re being naïve. The great recruits want to be coached by coaches with great track records of development. Having Helton is a huge plus; not to mention the fact that we also have a Heisman winning QB on staff.
We don’t lose key players on offense. It’s possible that we could lose 1 or 2 players early, but in all likelihood, we’re returning almost every key player on offense next season.
Our secondary will be more experienced. We played a lot of young players in the secondary, so we’ll get better there as well.
The SEC East gets easier next season.This was actually the toughest the SEC East has been in over a decade. Mizzou, Kentucky, and Vandy all had teams with experience Seniors at key positions. We’re the only team not losing a lot of key players (outside of the D-line).
Overall
Wait till we have better cards. 5-7 sucks and the Vandy loss stings, but Pruitt was dealt a pretty terrible hand. This is arguably the worst O-line in UT history and losing both Trey Smith and Kennedy hurt badly! The O-line issues undermined the entire offense. Eliminate the OL issues and this is a different team. We win the SC game and the Mizzou and Florida games are both winnable. In spite of the ugly scores in both of those games, the games were lopsided primarily because of turnovers.
We saw improvement. It was a disappointing end, but we beat two top 25 teams, which is pretty impressive for a new coach, and certainly an improvement over last season’s 0-8 win-loss record in the conference. At our best, we looked pretty good versus Kentucky and Auburn, but we saw reversions as well, particularly versus Vandy.
Similar to Harbaugh’s 1st year at Stanford. I’m not suggesting the outcome will be the same, but it was pretty similar to Harbaugh’s 1st year at Stanford when he went 4-8, but managed to upset #2 USC on the road. Stanford showed hints of improvement during Harbaugh’s first two years, but still got blown out in many games. Three years later, they win the Orange Bowl and finish #4 in the nation.
Don't be knee-jerk. We're going to learn more about Pruitt next season. For now, best to hold off judgement. Get some more players in there that will give their all every play. We'll evaluate where we are in another 12 months. And again in 24 months. We'll have a better sense at that point.
Time to follow recruiting! At least for the next few months.
GBO!
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