Drew Lock vs. Real Teams

#27
#27
KBVol said:
Hopefully we find out next year. Meanwhile, behind arguably the worst OL in college football, he’s been very efficient and productive this year.
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Agreed. Hopefully the O-line won't be a weakness next year. I have a lot of admiration for JG. The dude drops back knowing he's most likely taking a helmet to rib cage every other pass, takes the hit and completes the pass anyway. Respect
 
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#28
#28
Jnunn said:
So I noticed a trend last year regarding Drew Lock. This is what I pointed out in a thread back in the summer:

"Just to drill down this point a little more I looked at his numbers minus Missouri State, Idaho and UConn. So only including Mizzou's 10 "real" opponents last year, Lock threw for 2,599 yards, 26 TD's and 11 Int's on 167 comps, 315 attempts with a completion percentage of 53%... Not exactly awe-inspiring numbers. That includes four games of under 50% completion percentage and only two 300+ yard games. "

I wanted to do the same thing for this year. If you look at Lock's overall stats, they are impressive. 2647 yards, 21 td, 8 int, and a 62.5% completion percentage. All good numbers. But let's drill down and look at his stats versus Power 5 competition, so omitting the UT Martin, Wyoming and Memphis games. The numbers look like this:

144 Completions, 245 attempts, 1610 yards, 9 TD, 8 Int (!), 58.7% Completion.

Yikes. Those are even worse than his numbers against real competition in 2017. He has bounced back the last two weeks with 3 TD's against Florida and 2 TD's against Vanderbilt (but also 2 INT's), but overall this narrative that he is an amazing, stat-stuffing SEC QB is hyperinflated by Mizzou's annual pathetic non-conference scheduling. Those three non-Power 5 games, by the way, amount to 1037 of his yards and 12 (more than half) of his TD's.

For comparison's sake, I did the same thing with JG's numbers against Power 5 competition:

104 Completions, 165 attempts, 1274 yards, 9 TD, 2 Int, 63% Completion.

These numbers are with 5 common opponents played (UGA, USC, UF, Bama and UK), while our out of conference game was against a better team and defense (WVU vs. Purdue). That also doesn't take into consideration that Guarantano has played behind a much worse O Line and has spent half of his time on the field on his back.

Now I know stats are what you make them, but I wanted to do my part to dispel the Drew Lock hype. He may have all the physical tools, but he is inconsistent at best in Power 5 games. I have faith that with Pruitt leading this defense we will continue this trend for Lock..
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Solid stats, thanks for the effort. Our defense has already faced some really great QB's this season. I'm hoping when they play against Lock, it's seems a little easier for them. Who knows though. It's Tennessee.
 
#30
#30
JG just needs to learn how to read defenses better, and develpo a little better feel for the game.

In his defense, he needs at least one year with a decent OL.

I think if he stays 2 more years, he could be a first round pick. His arm strength and accuracy are NFL-ready attributes now.
 
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#34
#34
Jnunn said:
So I noticed a trend last year regarding Drew Lock. This is what I pointed out in a thread back in the summer:

"Just to drill down this point a little more I looked at his numbers minus Missouri State, Idaho and UConn. So only including Mizzou's 10 "real" opponents last year, Lock threw for 2,599 yards, 26 TD's and 11 Int's on 167 comps, 315 attempts with a completion percentage of 53%... Not exactly awe-inspiring numbers. That includes four games of under 50% completion percentage and only two 300+ yard games. "

I wanted to do the same thing for this year. If you look at Lock's overall stats, they are impressive. 2647 yards, 21 td, 8 int, and a 62.5% completion percentage. All good numbers. But let's drill down and look at his stats versus Power 5 competition, so omitting the UT Martin, Wyoming and Memphis games. The numbers look like this:

144 Completions, 245 attempts, 1610 yards, 9 TD, 8 Int (!), 58.7% Completion.

Yikes. Those are even worse than his numbers against real competition in 2017. He has bounced back the last two weeks with 3 TD's against Florida and 2 TD's against Vanderbilt (but also 2 INT's), but overall this narrative that he is an amazing, stat-stuffing SEC QB is hyperinflated by Mizzou's annual pathetic non-conference scheduling. Those three non-Power 5 games, by the way, amount to 1037 of his yards and 12 (more than half) of his TD's.

For comparison's sake, I did the same thing with JG's numbers against Power 5 competition:

104 Completions, 165 attempts, 1274 yards, 9 TD, 2 Int, 63% Completion.

These numbers are with 5 common opponents played (UGA, USC, UF, Bama and UK), while our out of conference game was against a better team and defense (WVU vs. Purdue). That also doesn't take into consideration that Guarantano has played behind a much worse O Line and has spent half of his time on the field on his back.

Now I know stats are what you make them, but I wanted to do my part to dispel the Drew Lock hype. He may have all the physical tools, but he is inconsistent at best in Power 5 games. I have faith that with Pruitt leading this defense we will continue this trend for Lock..
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Ok, I’m in.
 
#35
#35
OP, great post and thank-you for putting in the time. More effort and thought in your post than all the talking heads!

I hope it works out in our favor but like you referenced, stats are stats.
 
#36
#36
Great numbers. I just hope we play more like an SEC school and less like an OOC opponent.

But I am encouraged because I see improvement in the defensive backfield every week. Pruitt's first college job as as a DB coach and I think he knows how to coach em up very well.
 
#38
#38
KBVol said:
But wait.....but wait......but wait....Locke is an early round nfl draft pick while JG should be immediately benched because he can’t read a defense, holds the ball too long and locks in on his receivers.
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Lock is still a 1st round lock imo. That being said I believe JG could end up being a NFL starter. He's always had the physical tools he just needed the game to slow down.
 
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#41
#41
37620VOL said:
JG reminds me of a more accurate Dobbs but Whorley's speed and elusiveness.
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Dobbs could consistently rush for positive yardage, and escape a collapsing pocket.

Both have a relatively strong arm, but that's the only real similarity between them.
 
#45
#45
I didn't see this as a winnable game a month ago but I do now. Locke didn't light it up vs Kentucky, that's for sure. We need another monster game from Taylor and Tuttle.
 
#47
#47
k-town_king said:
Funny how the numbers and eventually results always match what I say.

I said Dobbs would be a NFL qb. I was right.

JG is a much better passer with a WAY stronger arm who is more accurate and turned the ball over less.
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I really like JG but you are way off here. He is not better than Lock. He doesnt have a stronger arm either. He is a little bit more accurate but in all honesty, I would take Lock over JG right now without hesitation.
 
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#49
#49
BigOrangeTrain said:
I really like JG but you are way off here. He is not better than Lock. He doesnt have a stronger arm either. He is a little bit more accurate but in all honesty, I would take Lock over JG right now without hesitation.
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Lock’s not afraid to turn up field when he see’s a chance to gain a few yards, I wish JG was more of a threat running, it would make a huge difference in trying to defend him
 
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