All things STOCKS

#554
#554
BTC is up almost 10% today. We saw a big time short squeeze on some of the exchanges earlier, Binance had a run up to $7680, before the price came back down to just under $7000, where it remains at the time of this writing. If we can sustain closes above $7k, we'll see the next leg up to $8000.
 
#555
#555
Turns out the runup in BTC is because Tether broke it's $1.0 peg to the USD on bitfinex. True USD is the stablecoin of choice for me.
 
#558
#558
Anyone here know of some good resources for those of us who might be looking to get into the Cannabis sector of the market? Not necessarily looking to individual picks (always welcome though), but rather resources to get a good understanding of the market fundamentals, along with financial products like ETFs or ETNs based around companies in the Cannabis sector. Any and all contributions are appreciated!
 
#559
#559
GoVolsDR said:
Anyone here know of some good resources for those of us who might be looking to get into the Cannabis sector of the market? Not necessarily looking to individual picks (always welcome though), but rather resources to get a good understanding of the market fundamentals, along with financial products like ETFs or ETNs based around companies in the Cannabis sector. Any and all contributions are appreciated!
Click to expand...

Here are some places to invest, but it's pretty fluid.

ACB.TO Aurora Cannabis
APG.TO APHQF Aphria Inc
CGC Canopy Growth Corp
CRON Cronos Group
FIRE.V SPRWF Supreme Cannabis
HMMJ.TO Horizons MJ LS ETF
HYYDF HEXO Corp
HZEMF Horizons EMG
INSYS INSYS Theraputics
LBUY Leafbuyer Technologies
MJ ETFMG Alt Harvest ETF
TLRY Tilray, Inc.
WEED.TO Canopy Growth

IIPR Innovative Industrial Properties
SMG Scotts Miracle-Gro
STZ Constellation Brands
GWPH GW Pharmaceuticals
 
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#560
#560
Thunder Good-Oil said:
Here are some places to invest, but it's pretty fluid.

ACB.TO Aurora Cannabis
APG.TO APHQF Aphria Inc
CGC Canopy Growth Corp
CRON Cronos Group
FIRE.V SPRWF Supreme Cannabis
HMMJ.TO Horizons MJ LS ETF
HYYDF HEXO Corp
HZEMF Horizons EMG
INSYS INSYS Theraputics
LBUY Leafbuyer Technologies
MJ ETFMG Alt Harvest ETF
TLRY Tilray, Inc.
WEED.TO Canopy Growth

IIPR Innovative Industrial Properties
SMG Scotts Miracle-Gro
STZ Constellation Brands
GWPH GW Pharmaceuticals
Click to expand...

I can't like this post enough. Thank you!!!!
 
#561
#561
Freak said:
TGO how do you like the market overall at these prices? Still wondering about any more of an October decline.
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The US equity markets have pulled back quickly, there are certainly good entry points. But the elections are a huge unknown. If the Democrats get the House and the Senate, look out below IMO.

Short term traders can do well from here. Long term investors have more to keep an eye on.

I have no idea how long the record bull market can run. Might be a good entry point for long term investors to get in with this pullback. DJIA is down 12 of 14 sessions. The markets may not do much for a year or two, but many good companies are on sale right now.

The world view is interesting. Trade especially. Trump's administration is pushing back at China and Iran. China does not hold a good hand. They export 4x as much in hard goods as they import from the US. They'll be hurting themselves with tariffs. They can stop purchasing US oil, but where ever they go instead, that country's buyers will just buy the US oil that China doesn't buy. It's a zero sum game. Total consumption won't change.

US sanctions kick in against Iran on 11/5. Our allies have been told to not buy Iran's crude after 11/4.

Bilateral trade agreements with Japan and the UK would confirm that Trump's economic plan is knocking it out of the park. The US has leverage with the UK if BREXIT isn't derailed. The UK will really need the US as a strong trading partner.

US markets will rise in the near term once things settle down. Keeping the GDP around 3% should signal whether the current run up can continue. Dems can wreck that by blowing out the tax plan though. They will crush the momentum if they try to reverse the cut in the corporate rate. 35% was among the highest in the world. 21% makes us competitive.
 
#562
#562
GoVolsDR said:
I can't like this post enough. Thank you!!!!
Click to expand...

Please share what you come up with. The pure plays are really expensive. I like SMG as a picks and shovels approach. I like STZ as well since they own a big piece of one of the Canadian growers. Innovative is interesting as a real estate play that rents space to the growers.
 
#563
#563
I've never had much interest in politics. But I do think that Trump is taking a good approach with his economic policies. The $20+ trillion debt is a huge problem. If the GDP stays around 3% or better then it becomes less of a problem. On the other hand, the rising interest rates make it hard to balance the budget. The $800B deficit, or whatever it was for FYE 9/30/2018, may not be as bad as it looks. But every 1% rise in interest rates translates to about another $200B in spending.

I like that Trump probably hasn't been bought by special interests and can attack the federal budget like a business. He's working at equalizing the trade imbalances and has to fight the Dems and the media at every turn. He also has an opportunity to have the rest of the free world pony up a lot more for worldwide security. He might not double the national debt like Obama and Bush did over their terms.
 
#564
#564
Thunder Good-Oil said:
Please share what you come up with. The pure plays are really expensive. I like SMG as a picks and shovels approach. I like STZ as well since they own a big piece of one of the Canadian growers. Innovative is interesting as a real estate play that rents space to the growers.
Click to expand...

Nexien BioPharma Inc. NXEN Board

Here's another one I found. Had a ticket change last week and could be uplisting to the CSE very soon.
 
#565
#565
Very cool buying opportunity with the S&P finally entering correction territory. If/when the Republicans retain control of the House, there should be a bullish reaction by the markets, like we saw with Donald Trump won the election in 2016. You'll be buying at a discount if the Republicans retain the House.

If the Democrats take control of the House, then I would look to liquidate my positions and hedge by setting up shorts on overvalued tech stocks, and potentially some inverse market tracking ETFs.
 
#566
#566
I don't know enough about how legislation gets passed. If the Dems take the House, I hope that they don't screw up the economy by passing oppressive corporate tax rates. Maybe they'll be so focused on futile attempts to impeach Trump and recalling Kavanaugh that nothing significant changes.

Worst month in 10 years. I can't wait to get this stupid election in the rear view mirror.
 
#567
#567
Tri-CitiesVol said:
My buddy made a fortune on EARS this week.
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How large of a position? Was he able to get out, or is he stuck? I ask because I have made a killing in several small caps, but this looks like a micro cap that would be nearly impossible to exit. I have struggled to exit positions in cos with a mkt cap of $500M without causing the share price to drop. I can't imagine getting out alive from something like this with a cap of <$5M. I would be interested in hearing his exit strategy. I enjoy volatility, and I have had some success with very volatile stocks, but I've never pulled the trigger on something like this for fear of getting stuck. I never pick something up unless I already have a place to set it down.
 
#568
#568
Thunder Good-Oil said:
I don't know enough about how legislation gets passed. If the Dems take the House, I hope that they don't screw up the economy by passing oppressive corporate tax rates. Maybe they'll be so focused on futile attempts to impeach Trump and recalling Kavanaugh that nothing significant changes.

Worst month in 10 years. I can't wait to get this stupid election in the rear view mirror.
Click to expand...
Need both house and senate to make laws. GOP is currently working on tax reform 2.0 which is supposed to reduce middle class tax rate to 10%. Should be fun watching democrats speak against it.
 
#569
#569
Man, these runs are extreme. I have some equities that needed to be sold about 3 weeks ago and then we had the biggest dive in about 10 years. So then over the weekend I decided to convert some debt holdings to equity and then Monday was maybe the best up day in a couple of years. It's hard to time markets and it's hard to be patient with year end and other deadlines fast approaching. The stress might could drive me to drink.
 
#570
#570
Thunder Good-Oil said:
Man, these runs are extreme. I have some equities that needed to be sold about 3 weeks ago and then we had the biggest dive in about 10 years. So then over the weekend I decided to convert some debt holdings to equity and then Monday was maybe the best up day in a couple of years. It's hard to time markets and it's hard to be patient with year end and other deadlines fast approaching. The stress might could drive me to drink.
Click to expand...
Thunder Good-Oil said:
Man, these runs are extreme. I have some equities that needed to be sold about 3 weeks ago and then we had the biggest dive in about 10 years. So then over the weekend I decided to convert some debt holdings to equity and then Monday was maybe the best up day in a couple of years. It's hard to time markets and it's hard to be patient with year end and other deadlines fast approaching. The stress might could drive me to drink.
Click to expand...
The conventional wisdom has always been that you can't time the market. Why are you trying? You think you will get lucky?
 
#571
#571
1972 Grad said:
The conventional wisdom has always been that you can't time the market. Why are you trying? You think you will get lucky?
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That is probably true for an uneducated trader. It's not that hard to time the market for an individual. it is just a psychologically difficult thing to do. You have to be willing to buy when it looks like everything is crap(that didn't happen this month), and sell some when everything is looking great. There are usually clear signals if you understand economics, finance, and investing,
BTW, politics has little to do with timing the market, although concern about the trade skirmishes scares some peoples. Unless there is an all out trade war where countries stop doing business with other countries it shouldn't be a big deal. So does the extremely large deficit we are headed for, but we've had large deficits before without severe drops in the market. Not saying deficits aren't bad, but their short term effect on markets is typically not significant.
Historically the party nor the person in power has much bearing on the markets.

My major concern for US corporations and their stock is the strong USD. That could impact jobs here and and will impact corporate sales for international companies. OTOH, DW and I are retired, and we travel several times during the year. It is nice to pay considerably less to travel.

Good for TGO. Not a huge swing in the market, but he can make some decent quick money. Not like 2007,08,09, but good money. FWIW, I have been selling for a few months, but have been waiting on a larger drop. I was waiting on a "panic?". a drop of 2000-3000 points to $20-22k dow avg, I might have missed my opportunity, but I can still trade individual stocks, and make money.

This is an oversimplified explanation of how to time trades when prices move because of market sentiment. I don't mean to suggest that the person who times the market will always be right. Most people will do better to put their savings and retirement with Vanguard.
 
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#572
#572
Go aeiou said:
That is probably true for an uneducated trader. It's not that hard to time the market for an individual. it is just a psychologically difficult thing to do. You have to be willing to buy when it looks like everything is crap(that didn't happen this month), and sell some when everything is looking great. There are usually clear signals if you understand economics, finance, and investing,
BTW, politics has little to do with timing the market, although concern about the trade skirmishes scares some peoples. Unless there is an all out trade war where countries stop doing business with other countries it shouldn't be a big deal. So does the extremely large deficit we are headed for, but we've had large deficits before without severe drops in the market. Not saying deficits aren't bad, but their short term effect on markets is typically not significant.
Historically the party nor the person in power has much bearing on the markets.

My major concern for US corporations and their stock is the strong USD. That could impact jobs here and and will impact corporate sales for international companies. OTOH, DW and I are retired, and we travel several times during the year. It is nice to pay considerably less to travel.

Good for TGO. Not a huge swing in the market, but he can make some decent quick money. Not like 2007,08,09, but good money. FWIW, I have been selling for a few months, but have been waiting on a larger drop. I was waiting on a "panic?". a drop of 2000-3000 points to $20-22k dow avg, I might have missed my opportunity, but I can still trade individual stocks, and make money.

This is an oversimplified explanation of how to time trades when prices move because of market sentiment. I don't mean to suggest that the person who times the market will always be right. Most people will do better to put their savings and retirement with Vanguard.
Click to expand...

Any favorite technical indicators you like using? I like to setup multiple EMA lines (169,144,12) on the chart, along with MACD. Nothing fancy I know but it seems to get the job done and give me a good idea bout momentum and when you're trending into overbought and oversold territory.
 
#573
#573
Go aeiou said:
That is probably true for an uneducated trader. It's not that hard to time the market for an individual. it is just a psychologically difficult thing to do. You have to be willing to buy when it looks like everything is crap(that didn't happen this month), and sell some when everything is looking great. There are usually clear signals if you understand economics, finance, and investing,
BTW, politics has little to do with timing the market, although concern about the trade skirmishes scares some peoples. Unless there is an all out trade war where countries stop doing business with other countries it shouldn't be a big deal. So does the extremely large deficit we are headed for, but we've had large deficits before without severe drops in the market. Not saying deficits aren't bad, but their short term effect on markets is typically not significant.
Historically the party nor the person in power has much bearing on the markets.

My major concern for US corporations and their stock is the strong USD. That could impact jobs here and and will impact corporate sales for international companies. OTOH, DW and I are retired, and we travel several times during the year. It is nice to pay considerably less to travel.

Good for TGO. Not a huge swing in the market, but he can make some decent quick money. Not like 2007,08,09, but good money. FWIW, I have been selling for a few months, but have been waiting on a larger drop. I was waiting on a "panic?". a drop of 2000-3000 points to $20-22k dow avg, I might have missed my opportunity, but I can still trade individual stocks, and make money.

This is an oversimplified explanation of how to time trades when prices move because of market sentiment. I don't mean to suggest that the person who times the market will always be right. Most people will do better to put their savings and retirement with Vanguard.
Click to expand...
It's better to stay invested. You can miss a few days, waiting to hop in which will penalize you in the long run. The vast majority of professionals can't beat the Vanguard Funds, depending upon classification and makeup. That is not how I am invested, but I wouldn't rule them out.
 
#574
#574
GoVolsDR said:
Any favorite technical indicators you like using? I like to setup multiple EMA lines (169,144,12) on the chart, along with MACD. Nothing fancy I know but it seems to get the job done and give me a good idea bout momentum and when you're trending into overbought and oversold territory.
Click to expand...
Nope, nothing that is published. In 2007, 2008 I was a real estate developer, and I had started a bank and was the chairman of the loan committee. I saw my residential lot sales go from a 15 year average of 25-30 per year to 18 in 2007. I sold stocks significantly that year. I sold 10 lots in 2008. Less than 10 total in 2009,10,11,12.

I was seeing people applying for loans to buy a home who had no business borrowing money. We sent them to Country Wide and other companies that would loan them money. Dumb me, I was asking how they could loan those people money. I felt like something was about to happen in housing. I didn't have any idea how enormous the problem was. So I sold about 40% of my stocks and stock funds in 2007. I haven't sold that much since. I bought back in after very significant drops, but not at the bottom. It is hard to watch your money deteriorate. I didn't panic, and 10 years later my money is worth several times what it was worth in 2007.

I guess my point is that I didn't know something was going to happen, but I was uncomfortable with the market.

I don't think technical indicators are reliable, and I'm not inclined to be a day trader. If you have something that is successful great. Do you ever just watch a stock for months/years and watch the movement??? I think you can tell when a large amount of stock of any company is being bought or sold . I guess that is volatility, but the swings are seldom more than 10% Most likely funds dressing up their holdings. It's an opportunity.

Simple reasoning has worked more than anything else for me, and that includes timing the market by a great margin. Simply, "what are we being told is going to happen in the near future, and not told by wall street. We were clearly told that drugs were rapidly changing. Biotech. They get bought. My largest holding for 10-11 years has been JNJ. Fairly safe. knock on wood. Other technology. I owned Apple, microsoft, etc.

I guess that is what works for me, although at 66 I am getting more defensive.

OTOH, I'm a CPA, and I understand financial statements. I don't think they are reliable. I thought Worldcom was going to be the survivor in the communications industry. I lost a ton of money on that one. When I first started investing in the late 70s I bought gold from a company in FL. They kept it in their vault, and gave the buyer a certificate. A few years later they found gold plated blocks of wood in their vault. It is good to not have much money when you are young and naive.

Sorry to get off topic. Good luck with you timing.
 
#575
#575
1972 Grad said:
The conventional wisdom has always been that you can't time the market. Why are you trying? You think you will get lucky?
Click to expand...

I wasn't planning on timing. When I trade I'm am absolutely trying to time. But this is repositioning some funds for tax reasons. I held off on moving out of some equities because of a couple of really big down days on 10/4 and 10/5. But instead of a reversal, the next 3 weeks sent the US averages into the worst pull back in a decade. So then, because it's almost a wash, some funds are going to equities, some from equities to a guaranteed interest contract, I decided over last weekend to move ahead with the debt to equities side... and then boom! Monday was the best day for equities in a couple of years and then on Tuesday instead of giving some of the Monday gains back... equities had another very good up day. So yes, conventional wisdom is to not try to time markets with LT money, but it's also fundamental to not sell in a panic on declines. I have a window of several months, but I want to get it over with.

Since the earnings multiples are much more favorable today than they were 10 years ago, IMO this isn't going to be a prolonged pull back. BUT... and I know that this isn't the politics of investing thread, the election and the rhetoric being spewed by the Left is largely to blame for this retracement. There's the fear of jacking up corporate taxes, which would be insane since they are now in line with the rest of the first world countries instead of being the highest in the world. And the left can't help themselves from attacking Trump over his trade policy. China in no way can win a trade war with the US but they can use the critics on the Left to drag out the process. We're moving steel manufacturing away from China and back home while they're threatening to slap tariffs on soybeans. Good luck keeping a billion people fed without US AG imports. AND... minus services, it's about 4 to 1 China's exports to the US versus the US exports to China. Trump has all the cards. The only thing that he can't control is the timing.
 
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