Date: Saturday, October 20th
Game Time: 3:30 pm ET
Venue: Neyland Stadium, Knoxville, TN
Network: CBS
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The Vols return to the friendly confines of Neyland Stadium right after exploiting an Auburn team that has lost it's way. All that matters in the end is that Tennessee finally beat a heavily favored team on the road when nearly all hope was lost. This snapping of many streaks (losses against SEC West, losses against SEC opponents, losses against higher ranked opponent on the road, losses against Auburn, etc.) have boosted fan morale, and no doubt given the team a lot of swagger which has been missing since the Dobbnail boot. And then Bama comes to town. Swell.
Ok. So the chances for a Tennessee victory are not very good folks. I don't even have to go over the stacks of evidence for that, but there is a chance. Below, I'm going to detail exactly the path to victory, as slim as it may be. Statistically, Alabama is comically good.
Keys to Victory:
1. Is Tua Hurts?: For seemingly ever, Nick Saban has won championships with decent quarterback play. "Game manager" is the word most often used... then Tua Tagovaiola showed up. Ok gang. Check out this piece of work.
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Like, what the heck? 21 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. I've never seen a statline like that, in any division of any conference of anything. 14.31 yards per attempt... 20 yards per completion. Tua left the Mizzou game with a knee injury on Saturday, and while his availability is unknown, it certainly doesn't make a lot of sense to put him at risk in what Saban must feel is a pretty easy game. Not only that, former starter Jalen Hurts, often ridiculed for his accuracy is actually completing a higher % at 74% of his passes. As I said before, Bama is comically good.
For Tennessee to have a chance here, it needs to be Jalen, and not Tua. I have no statistical analysis to back this up, but in my opinion, the absence of Tua is worth 14 points.
Key Point: Hurts, not Tua.
2. Keep rOLling: The Tennessee offensive line showed great improvement against what many consider to be the best defensive front in college football, Auburn. However, the running game was abysmal still, with TN RB's averaging a paltry 2.53 YPC. Though Bama has been like a brick house in scoring defense, they are curiously 49th in rushing defense (yards per game). Kind of an interesting stat, especially when you consider everyone plays from behind against Bama, and would be forced to pass more in order to keep up. Bama gives up 4.22 yards per carry, while Tennessee does just a bit worse at 4.7 yards per carry. Interesting.
As far as pass defense, Tennessee is ranked ahead of Alabama in yards per game allowed. Say what? Did I stutter, son? The Vols have given up 182.6 YPG, to Bama's 197.8 YPG. It's a little deceiving as the more important stat is yards per attempt, where Tennessee gives up 7.08 yards per pass attempt to Bama's 5.5
What does it mean? If the Tennessee offensive line can continue their steady improvement, the Vols can move the ball. Please note... they must be better, not equal to their Auburn play for this to work... but yards are there if we can exploit the opportunities.
Key Point: Better OL play than Auburn game.
3. How Good?: This Alabama team is exceptionally good... or are they? Alabama has feasted on the bones of really bad programs so far this year. It's like when you hang out with your buddies who are all 5/10's, because it bring's your 7/10 looks up to an 8.5/10 in comparison. Want proof?
Louisville 2-5, wins over Indiana State & Western KY
Arkansas State 3-3, wins over SE Missou. State, Tulsa, UNLV
Ole Miss 5-2, wins over Texas Tech, Southern Illinois, Kent, ULM, Arkansas
Texas A&M 5-2, wins over NW State, ULM, Arkansas, Kentucky, South Carolina
ULL 3-3, wins over Grambling, Texas State, New Mexico State
Arkansas 1-6, wins over Eastern Illinois
Mizzou 3-3, wins over UT Martin, Wyoming, Purdue
So, 22 wins, and 24 losses for Alabama's opponents. Yawn. The only win there that even begins to move the needle is against what is probably a very good Texas A&M team, but let's be honest... they've only beaten an overachieving Kentucky team and a perpetually overrated South Carolina team. Yes, they played Clemson to the wire and stuck within 22 of Bama, but probably a top 15 team at best.
Now, all of this to say, this is by no means proof that Bama is not the best team in the history of college football, but let's be real... they've done nothing to prove themselves worthy of that (to date) other than some gaudy numbers over some pretty shoddy competition. For Tennessee to be able to win this game, Alabama can not be as good as they seem to be. If they are, then the game is over.
Key Point: Is Bama as good as they appear?
4. Fast Start: There are two problems. Tennessee has been very slow to get traction, both on offense and defense. Alabama is exactly the opposite. How much time of possession has it taken Bama to score?
3:05 (1st possession)
1:41 (1st possession)
1:10 (1st possession)
:08 (1st possession)
3:35 (1st possession)
:21 (1st possession)
:23 (1st possession)
... and those are all touchdowns. It makes me want to vomit. If Tennessee can stop them on the first drive, or even make them take more than 10 plays to build a drive, we should call a timeout and tear down the goal posts. It takes Bama an average of 1 minute and 29 seconds to get 7. If this happens, and Tennessee takes too long to get it's offense into a rhythm, it will be too late to do anything about it, and the optimism in Neyland will begin to drain into despair.
Key Point: Don't get behind early. Offense needs to get going quick.
5. Turnover Battle: On the year, Bama is +1.5 turnovers per game and Tennessee is -.8. On Saturday, this cannot be so, and Tennessee needs to swing this in a big anti-Florida game way.
Key Point: +3+ in turnover battle.
Prediction: I could keep going, but I've layed out 5 very difficult circumstances that Tennessee needs to achieve/overcome in order to win this game. If they fail in any point, I think they lose. However, if Jalen Hurts is the starter, the offensive line outperforms their Auburn performance, Bama is not as good as it seems, Bama has a slow start compared to a fast start from Tennessee and the Vols are at least +3 in the turnover battle, lightning may strike. I don't put a ton of value in Pruitt's knowledge of the Bama program and defense because ultimately, "Jimmies and Joes" and their dudes are just a lot better than almost all our dudes... God love 'em. However, Bama is almost always the best team in college football, and ultimately ends up losing to a lesser team (sometimes not much less) every year. Maybe this season, it's dem Vols.
I think Hurts starts over Tua, giving a 14 point swing to Tennessee, and the Vols can get some yards, but drives stall when Bama buckles down. The big play deep ball is harder to come by, and JG throws 2 INT's trying to make something happen as the game is slipping away. I don't like it, but
TN 17
Bama 45
