Some Perspective on "Rebuilds"

[jakez4ut]

Kentucky is not that good! Maybe by Kentucky's standard they are good, but Kentucky is benefitiing big time by the fact that every team in the east, save Georgia is not that good. Mark Stoops is LUCKY to have been at the right school (Kentucky with no football standards) at the right time (the majority of the SEC east sucks).

Using Kentucky as an example here is a terrible illustration of "giving someone time".

Like I said, if you cant tell in 3 years then you need to have serious talks about what's next.

well that's great.

and not the point. and "giving time" wasn't even close to the point. but i suspect you know that if you actually bothered reading the whole post, and you're just trolling now.

if you're not trolling, you're just dense. either way, i don't really need you to 'get it' for me to know what's right here.

so you just keep on keepin' on with your "3 year" rule.

 

[MWAVolfan]

David Cutcliffe, he got hired at Duke and had a paultry 10 wins combined in his first 3 years. shoulda fired him.

it's unfortunate they retained him and let him hang around, cause it took him 6 years to win his division....AT DUKE.

again a TERRIBLE example. Duke is a Basketball school who could care less about competing in football. Duke was the PERFECT job for Cutcliffe because he could do just enough to make a bowl game and they would keep him no matter what. Of couse Duke gave him more time. Duke was LUCKY to have coach Cut. How did he do when he coached Ole Miss? He had ONE 10 win season and that's because of Eli. the rest of the time he was basically a .500 ball coach. He didnt make it AT OLE MISS, a team I think we would all agree is in the bottom third of the SEC historically. If Cuttcliff hadn't landed Eli Manning, I doube he would have been there for 6 years.

 

[jakez4ut]

see above. same response.

 

[SaintLouisVol]

Would you agree that giving a coach 5 years is plenty? That 5 years is not a knee jerk reaction? and yet, how did our coaching search go? Was it made easier because we gave Butch "plenty of time"? Heck no, it was made even harder because we let Dekrek Dooley drive the bus into a ditch and let Butch Jones set it on fire. We were a laughing stock. It was like an episode of Jerry Springer. Meanwhile TAMU somehow landed Jimbo Fisher because they offered the $$$. why the heck would Jimbo take TAMU over UT other than the fact that UT waited around on the bum coaches rather than getting after it and getting serious and let it program fall completely out of relevance. I realize getting a guy like Jimbo Fisher was completely unrealistic, but it was only unrealistic due to what UT did to itself.

If by year three you cant look at your coach and say "he's ABSOLUTELY the future of this program, with zero doubt" then he isnt and it time to make serious decisions. Because the next coaching hire is gonna be hard no matter what, especially when you dont offer the $$$ to get an impact coach.

I'm in no way down on Pruitt. I'm simply saying UT cant be wrong again without risking permanent irrelevance.

We first of all, Jimbo is 1-1 in the conference with a 7-point win over Arkansas. So, I am not exactly willing to concede that the Jimbo move was brilliant. It may turn out to be, but the verdict is out. Personally, I believe he would have won more at FSU if he is, indeed, an "impact" coach. And, if Jimbo is not the guy, A&M is either stuck with him or going to have to eat the biggest buyout in CFB history. Talk about "permanent irrelevance."

In hindsight, it's very easy to say that Jones lingered too long. But, in truth, he was probably fired when he should have been. The team was progressively better the first three years. After the fourth year, the chinks in his armor were definitely starting to show, but he did hold par by winning 9 games. I don't know how you fire a guy that is coming off back-to-back 9 win seasons in year four.

The difficulty of the Tennessee hires is compounded by the fact that they're on their fourth attempt in 10 years to replace the coach that got them to the level of success that every fan expects. If we would have fired Dooley and/or Jones sooner, it would just mean that the program would be in year 2-3 of whoever and be out that much more buyout money. In the end, there are no guarantees. It's always a risk.

 

[05_never_again]

Here is a great non-football example for you.... Mike Matheny won more baseball games in his first 1000 games than any Cardinals manager and won more games in his first 5 years as a head coach than almost all MLB head coaches in history. Yet it was widely known and talked about that St Louis won IN SPITE of him and that he couldnt manage his way out of a paper bag. St Louis sacrificed many good chances to contend for titles because they waited around far too long. Now they miss the post season for 3 years running for the first time in 20 years.

An almost totally irrelevant example. The impact a baseball manager has on his team winning and losing is nothing like the impact a college football coach has on their team winning and losing.

You can tell if a coach is "the guy" based on body language and mannerisms. OK. It was simply not obvious Butch couldn't coach immediately. He inherited a dumpster fire and actually had a good season considering the circumstances in year 3. Are you really suggesting that even considering where Tennessee had come from, we should have fired Butch after 2015? Even though there was obvious improvement and we were bringing everyone back from a year we went 9-4 and could have won as many as 11 games?

Hindsight bias - Wikipedia

 

[MWAVolfan]

well that's great.

and not the point. and "giving time" wasn't even close to the point. but i suspect you know that if you actually bothered reading the whole post, and you're just trolling now.

if you're not trolling, you're just dense. either way, i don't really need you to 'get it' for me to know what's right here.

so you just keep on keepin' on with your "3 year" rule.

What was the point then? I'm not dense. You just arent forward thinking at all. WE DONT LIVE IN THAT WORLD ANYMORE. We had three failed hires in a row. Like I said. Time is up. We cant play games anymore. If you dont get that, then we can just disagree.

 

[05_never_again]

What was the point then? I'm not dense. You just arent forward thinking at all. WE DONT LIVE IN THAT WORLD ANYMORE. We had three failed hires in a row. Like I said. Time is up. We cant play games anymore. If you dont get that, then we can just disagree.

Let me ask you a question - by year 3, what mark does Pruitt need to put up to avoid getting fired? Winning/almost winning the SEC?

What if he almost wins the SEC in year 2, but then regresses to 6-6 in year 3?

You are trying to apply some kind of hard and fast, easy rule to a complicated process. There are so many things to consider in a rebuild, and I don't think you can construct some rule that dictates what you should do in any particular situation.

 

[jakez4ut]

An almost totally irrelevant example. The impact a baseball manager has on his team winning and losing is nothing like the impact a college football coach has on their team winning and losing.

You can tell if a coach is "the guy" based on body language and mannerisms. OK. It was simply not obvious Butch couldn't coach immediately. He inherited a dumpster fire and actually had a good season considering the circumstances in year 3. Are you really suggesting that even considering where Tennessee had come from, we should have fired Butch after 2015? Even though there was obvious improvement and we were bringing everyone back from a year we went 9-4 and could have won as many as 11 games?

Hindsight bias - Wikipedia

oh, it totally makes more sense than, you know, actually using college football coaches as examples. totally. i mean, how do you not see that?

 

[MWAVolfan]

An almost totally irrelevant example. The impact a baseball manager has on his team winning and losing is nothing like the impact a college football coach has on their team winning and losing.

You can tell if a coach is "the guy" based on body language and mannerisms. OK. It was simply not obvious Butch couldn't coach immediately. He inherited a dumpster fire and actually had a good season considering the circumstances in year 3. Are you really suggesting that even considering where Tennessee had come from, we should have fired Butch after 2015? Even though there was obvious improvement and we were bringing everyone back from a year we went 9-4 and could have won as many as 11 games?

Hindsight bias - Wikipedia

Stop it with the hindsight bias and go back and actually read my posts dude. I LIVED it, in the moment when all of you were sucked in.

I'm the guy who called Butch Jones a gutless coward during what you consider "the season they could have won 11 games".

Get out of here with that crap. I called his B.S from the beginning. I said "this guy can talk and get recruits but wait until he coaches"

I wasnt the only one. Guys like Finebaum saw it too. But God forbid any of you BIASED people actually give "that Bammer homer" any credit for being absolutely right.

It was all there to see.

 

[jakez4ut]

What was the point then? I'm not dense. You just arent forward thinking at all. WE DONT LIVE IN THAT WORLD ANYMORE. We had three failed hires in a row. Like I said. Time is up. We cant play games anymore. If you dont get that, then we can just disagree.

lol. you're not even disagreeing with me, cause you haven't yet even acknowledged the point i made.

here, i'll help...i definitely disagree with your magic formula rule of 3 years or else. i think it's stuipd, and i've listed many reasons and examples why.

i'll dumb it down, and keep it simple. hiring/firing decisions should be made based on the individual situation for the program involved, not because someone says "if by year 3, you're not sure, fire him".

clear?

 

[jakez4ut]

Stop it with the hindsight bias and go back and actually read my posts dude. I LIVED it, in the moment when all of you were sucked in.

I'm the guy who called Butch Jones a gutless coward during what you consider "the season they could have won 11 games".

Get out of here with that crap. I called his B.S from the beginning. I said "this guy can talk and get recruits but wait until he coaches"

I wasnt the only one. Guys like Finebaum saw it too. But God forbid any of you BIASED people actually give "that Bammer homer" any credit for being absolutely right.

It was all there to see.

so is that what this tantrum is about now? defending finebaum and getting retroactive e cred for that time you said butch sucked?

lol.

 

[05_never_again]

Stop it with the hindsight bias and go back and actually read my posts dude. I LIVED it, in the moment when all of you were sucked in.

I'm the guy who called Butch Jones a gutless coward during what you consider "the season they could have won 11 games".

Wrong and wrong. According to the search function you first called Butch a "gutless coward" on 9/24/16, not during 2015, which was the season we could have won 11 games. Then after the Florida win in 2016, you said you were wrong about Butch, before flipping again after the South Carolina/Vandy losses and saying he was once again a gutless coward.

Again - it was not obvious he could not coach until midway through the 2016 season. This was even your own opinion!

Everyone Calling UT an Underdog

 

[MWAVolfan]

Let me ask you a question - by year 3, what mark does Pruitt need to put up to avoid getting fired? Winning/almost winning the SEC?

What if he almost wins the SEC in year 2, but then regresses to 6-6 in year 3?

You are trying to apply some kind of hard and fast, easy rule to a complicated process. There are so many things to consider in a rebuild, and I don't think you can construct some rule that dictates what you should do in any particular situation.

I just dont believe it takes that long if you are the right coach at UT. You can drum up extreme examples if you want. I HIGHLY doubt that most fans of ANY SEC school would tolerate almost winning the conference and then going 6-6.

 

[SaintLouisVol]

Stop it with the hindsight bias and go back and actually read my posts dude. I LIVED it, in the moment when all of you were sucked in.

I'm the guy who called Butch Jones a gutless coward during what you consider "the season they could have won 11 games".

Get out of here with that crap. I called his B.S from the beginning. I said "this guy can talk and get recruits but wait until he coaches"

I wasnt the only one. Guys like Finebaum saw it too. But God forbid any of you BIASED people actually give "that Bammer homer" any credit for being absolutely right.

It was all there to see.

So, firing a coach that took a 5-7 team to 9-4 in three years is not going to negatively impact your ability to recruit a better coach to the school?

 

[MWAVolfan]

so is that what this tantrum is about now? defending finebaum and getting retroactive e cred for that time you said butch sucked?

lol.

No, its about pointing out that not everyone believed in Butch and that it's not hindsight dictating my attitude.

 

[jakez4ut]

No, its about pointing out that not everyone believed in Butch and that it's not hindsight dictating my attitude.

uh, what? i thnk that's exactly what it is....lol.

and who cares about butch? man, let it freaking go. dude's an intern at Bama.

YOU WON!! yea!!!

 

[05_never_again]

I just dont believe it takes that long if you are the right coach at UT. You can drum up extreme examples if you want. I HIGHLY doubt that most fans of ANY SEC school would tolerate almost winning the conference and then going 6-6.

That isn't an extreme example. Mike Shula at Alabama went 10-2 in year 3 and was 9-0/ranked #4 in the country until the final 2 weeks of that season, until back to back close losses to LSU and at Auburn derailed their changes to win the West (they were ineligible for postseason play anyway and wouldn't have played in Atlanta, but they still could have won the West). The bottom fell out the very next year and he was fired.

 

[MWAVolfan]

So, firing a coach that took a 5-7 team to 9-4 in three years is not going to negatively impact your ability to recruit a better coach to the school?

It's not going to negatively impact it in relation to letting that coach stay longer and do further damage. I'm saying firing and hiring a coach is hard, no matter what. so using that as a factor in decision making around firing a coach isnt a good use of time.

by your logic, Alabama firing Mike Shula should have been an utter disaster. Look what happened. Mike Shula won more games than Butch ever did. Yeah, 2006 was a bad year but look what he had done. David Cutcliffe won 10 games AT OLE MISS. One bad year and no more Eli Manning and he was done.

 

[jakez4ut]

I just dont believe it takes that long if you are the right coach at UT. You can drum up extreme examples if you want. I HIGHLY doubt that most fans of ANY SEC school would tolerate almost winning the conference and then going 6-6.

Vandy would. KY would. USCe would. MO would too, and has. Arkansas would, and has. we would, and have, but not for long..... Auburn would, and has. pretty sure Ole Miss and Miss ST would too.

so, maybe not all.....just 3/4 of the leage would. the other 1/4 would definitely follow your 3 year rule.

 

[jakez4ut]

It's not going to negatively impact it in relation to letting that coach stay longer and do further damage. I'm saying firing and hiring a coach is hard, no matter what. so using that as a factor in decision making around firing a coach isnt a good use of time.

using what as a factor? your feelings after year 3?

 

[SaintLouisVol]

It's not going to negatively impact it in relation to letting that coach stay longer and do further damage. I'm saying firing and hiring a coach is hard, no matter what. so using that as a factor in decision making around firing a coach isnt a good use of time.

What crystal ball exactly was the UT admin supposed to use to know how the next two years were going to shake out? 2015 was, by most reasonable accounts, a pretty encouraging year for the football program.

 

[MWAVolfan]

That isn't an extreme example. Mike Shula at Alabama went 10-2 in year 3 and was 9-0/ranked #4 in the country until the final 2 weeks of that season, until back to back close losses to LSU and at Auburn derailed their changes to win the West (they were ineligible for postseason play anyway and wouldn't have played in Atlanta, but they still could have won the West). The bottom fell out the very next year and he was fired.

EXACTLY!

 

[05_never_again]

It's not going to negatively impact it in relation to letting that coach stay longer and do further damage. I'm saying firing and hiring a coach is hard, no matter what. so using that as a factor in decision making around firing a coach isnt a good use of time.

by your logic, Alabama firing Mike Shula should have been an utter disaster. Look what happened. Mike Shula won more games than Butch ever did.

Nope. Shula was fired after a really disappointing 6-6 mark, not after the 10-2. When looked at entirely, Shula was there 4 years and 3 of them were bad. 75% bad years isn't exactly an indication a coach has "made it," using either your logic or the everyone else's.

 

[MWAVolfan]

uh, what? i thnk that's exactly what it is....lol.

and who cares about butch? man, let it freaking go. dude's an intern at Bama.

YOU WON!! yea!!!

Winning this isnt a good thing. I'm not happy at all that I was right.

 

[05_never_again]

EXACTLY!

Exactly what? It's your logic, not ours, that a coach worth his salt will show it by year 3. Your logic would dictate signing him to some huge extension and raise after year 3, then having to pay an enormous buyout when the bottom fell out in year 4.

Besides, your whole argument is invalid anyway because your claimed recollection is wrong. At least from what you wrote on these boards, you started doubting Butch in 2016, then flipped once we beat Florida, then flipped back once we lost to South Carolina and Vandy. Which is precisely what I've been saying - it wasn't clear Butch wasn't a good coach until late 2016.