The Braves have done so much with him in such a short time. They have him throwing the fastball less overall but more up in the zone. They have him throwing his changeup more. They moved him on the rubber. They took away the stretch. It’s a lot for one person to do in the middle of a season.
But just getting out of Baltimore was worth something to his home run rate. I’ll take the most optimistic projection — THE BAT’s 3.79/1.23 with a strikeout per inning — and feel comfortable with that. In some ways, he’s lucky to have the low ERA he’s had with the Braves so far because during that first start, he didn’t strike anyone out.
So, yeah, believe in him as a top-75 pitcher, as a third or fourth pitcher in the Braves’ rotation, even if you don’t believe in the sub-three ERA right now.