Recruiting Forum Football Talk LVII

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#2,302
#2,302
Would love to see some of Denark's business dealings exposed, especially those with local and state government. But anyone who pushes too far is going to need an excellent attorney.
 
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#2,304
#2,304
InVOLuntary said:
$322.60. Bought Amazon too and it was up early, now it's down. Stock tip.... Do the opposite of what InVOL does. :)
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I'm showing Netflix down ~$14 so far today and Amazon down $30+ dollars atm.

Its never recommeded that one trade off of someone else's "tips" as everyone has to do their own due diligence. That said, I've been watching to see if we get a retest of the market lows of early February. It doesn't always happen but more often than not a significant sell-off gets retested before returning to the longer term uptrend.

I define a successful retest as a slightly lower market low with a lower number of new 52-week lows on the exchanges, meaning fewer stocks are participating in the down move to new lows. I also look for extreme oversold readings in market breadth (advancing issues vs decliing issues on the exchanges). Finally, every timeframe has a trading range. Breakouts of the trading range almost always occur in the direction of the trend. When we are going down and in this case for a potential retest of a prior low I want to see us hold support above the bottom on that month's trading range.

When I first got into trading about 24 years ago I always heard 66% of the risk in any given stock was market risk, meaning if the market as a whole is going up or down, on average 2/3rds of the stocks will be doing the same. About 13 years ago I quit trading everything except the S&P 500 futures contract (essentially the market). My philosophy is strength follows strength 75-80% of the time, weakness follows weakness 70-75% of the time and consolidation most often returns to the prior prevailing trend condition. Risk vs Reward is more important than winning percentage and on any give trade anything can happen. Its never a matter of being right or wrong; its a matter of having an edge that will be profitable over a significant number of trades (law of large numbers).

The most difficult thing for me to accept about trading was the notion that neither I nor anyone else could predict the future beyond a measure of probability. Peyton once said something to the effect that he learned to embrance being uncomfortable and for trading I discovered one has to learn to embrace uncertainty. That really pissed me off. Who in the hell made these rules?
 
#2,310
#2,310
bignewt said:
that's ridiculous the fan base would riot.
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That’s crazy talk, no fan base would ever ri...

giphy.gif
 
#2,313
#2,313
ChattaTNVol said:
I'm showing Netflix down ~$14 so far today and Amazon down $30+ dollars atm.

Its never recommeded that one trade off of someone else's "tips" as everyone has to do their own due diligence. That said, I've been watching to see if we get a retest of the market lows of early February. It doesn't always happen but more often than not a significant sell-off gets retested before returning to the longer term uptrend.

I define a successful retest as a slightly lower market low with a lower number of new 52-week lows on the exchanges, meaning fewer stocks are participating in the down move to new lows. I also look for extreme oversold readings in market breadth (advancing issues vs decliing issues on the exchanges). Finally, every timeframe has a trading range. Breakouts of the trading range almost always occur in the direction of the trend. When we are going down and in this case for a potential retest of a prior low I want to see us hold support above the bottom on that month's trading range.

When I first got into trading about 24 years ago I always heard 66% of the risk in any given stock was market risk, meaning if the market as a whole is going up or down, on average 2/3rds of the stocks will be doing the same. About 13 years ago I quit trading everything except the S&P 500 futures contract (essentially the market). My philosophy is strength follows strength 75-80% of the time, weakness follows weakness 70-75% of the time and consolidation most often returns to the prior prevailing trend condition. Risk vs Reward is more important than winning percentage and on any give trade anything can happen. Its never a matter of being right or wrong; its a matter of having an edge that will be profitable over a significant number of trades (law of large numbers).

The most difficult thing for me to accept about trading was the notion that neither I nor anyone else could predict the future beyond a measure of probability. Peyton once said something to the effect that he learned to embrance being uncomfortable and for trading I discovered one has to learn to embrace uncertainty. That really pissed me off. Who in the hell made these rules?
Click to expand...
I didn't trade soly off Newt's advise.
 
#2,317
#2,317
InVOLuntary said:
I didn't trade soly off Newt's advise.
Click to expand...

I was just killing time with that post.

One of the tricks I used to use when I was trading equities is I'd do research on a lot of stocks and find the ones with the most upside beta. When the market is weak and then turns back up either in an uptrend or a dead cat bounce in a downtrend I'd buy those stocks - more bang for the buck. They bounce higher and faster. The trick for a trader in a downtrend bounce higher is to get out before everyone who rode the stock down and is holding on to get back to breakeven starts selling. Of course as you would expect that's why we typically get lower highs and lower lows in a downtrend.

There's always a measure of uncertainty in I guess everything but in my analysis which is based of of trend, momentum, and changing volatility, we made it to the top of the monthly trading range on March 12ish. The bottom of the march range is too high for a retest of the february lows so I was guessing we had to end march at or below the bottom of the march range so when the april range is initialized the bottom of the april range will be a bit below the February lows. In that setup we can perhaps have a successful retest of those february lows without taking out the bottom of the April range.

I'm not convinced my analysis is correct but its working so far. We took out the bottom of the march range on Friday and had a nice oversold bounce on Monday. Today we're back to the downtrend. I don't think we have to go any lower this month to setup the april range for my retest scenario. We could go lower but we don't have to. At the moment the bottom of the april range if april is initialized at these levels will be slightly below the february lows.

If we do get a successful retest I'm thinking most computers (90% of all trading volume) will back up their trucks and buy everything with reckless abandon. In that case almost all of them will probably want some Netflix and Amazon. So if I'm right so is Newt but we may go lower before we go higher.

I'm still bored. :)
 
#2,318
#2,318
ChattaTNVol said:
I was just killing time with that post.

One of the tricks I used to use when I was trading equities is I'd do research on a lot of stocks and find the ones with the most upside beta. When the market is weak and then turns back up either in an uptrend or a dead cat bounce in a downtrend I'd buy those stocks - more bang for the buck. They bounce higher and faster. The trick for a trader in a downtrend bounce higher is to get out before everyone who rode the stock down and is holding on to get back to breakeven starts selling. Of course as you would expect that's why we typically get lower highs and lower lows in a downtrend.

There's always a measure of uncertainty in I guess everything but in my analysis which is based of of trend, momentum, and changing volatility, we made it to the top of the monthly trading range on March 12ish. The bottom of the march range is too high for a retest of the february lows so I was guessing we had to end march at or below the bottom of the march range so when the april range is initialized the bottom of the april range will be a bit below the February lows. In that setup we can perhaps have a successful retest of those february lows without taking out the bottom of the April range.

I'm not convinced my analysis is correct but its working so far. We took out the bottom of the march range on Friday and had a nice oversold bounce on Monday. Today we're back to the downtrend. I don't think we have to go any lower this month to setup the april range for my retest scenario. We could go lower but we don't have to. At the moment the bottom of the april range if april is initialized at these levels will be slightly below the february lows.

If we do get a successful retest I'm thinking most computers (90% of all trading volume) will back up their trucks and buy everything with reckless abandon. In that case almost all of them will probably want some Netflix and Amazon. So if I'm right so is Newt but we may go lower before we go higher.

I'm still bored. :)
Click to expand...

Here is the best stock tip I can give you. It's called the InVOL matrix. What you do is look at stocks that InVOL buys. If he buys them sell them quickly. Look at stocks InVOL sells. Rush to buy those. My Moto, buy high and sell low.
 
#2,320
#2,320
Nashvegas31 said:
He can't just show up and fire bev and Fulmer. Especially not fulmer if athletics is doing good . They don't want another mess
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They want control.

Bev Davenport got sideways with them over the outsourcing deal and then we had Schianogate where she axed the Haslam puppet. Her days are numbered.

Fulmer will be harder to remove but removing his power will be easy.

It's not just about those 2. It's bigger than that.
 
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#2,322
#2,322
InVOLuntary said:
Here is the best stock tip I can give you. It's called the InVOL matrix. What you do is look at stocks that InVOL buys. If he buys them sell them quickly. Look at stocks InVOL sells. Rush to buy those. My Moto, buy high and sell low.
Click to expand...

I appreciate that tip. :eek:lol:

The first year I started trading was '94. I was trading commodities and I finally settled on trading corn. Corn that year was in relative short supply and I was keeping up with the fundamentals. I used a lot of leverage and doubled my money within a few months. I didn't know how or when to sell to take profits so after the new harvest came in (better than expected) I gave back all my profits and then some before I'd had enough of that trade. Sometime later I read from some trading book authors that I should never get into a position without knowing where I was going to get out. Wow! So that's how that works.

I was short the market the weekend Bin Laden was reported killed. It was a very good short setup. I was overleveraged and for about 14 hours I was sweating bullets with a huge drawdown until early Monday afternoon when the market pulled back and I closed the position for a small profit. I chickened out on the trade because of the drawdown and of course over the next few days it would have worked just as originally planned with a 5 figure profit.

I figure anyone who trades has good stories and bad. It's like fishing stories. I enjoy trading. For me, it can still sometimes be almost as nerve wrecking as Tennessee football, not quite, but close. :)
 
#2,323
#2,323
BigZiti09 said:
They want control.

Bev Davenport got sideways with them over the outsourcing deal and then we had Schianogate where she axed the Haslam puppet. Her days are numbered.

Fulmer will be harder to remove but removing his power will be easy.

It's not just about those 2. It's bigger than that.
Click to expand...

If any of the powers that be had given a tinker's dam about athletics we would always be in the hunt for National Championships in most sports. There is no excuse for UT not competing at a high level===ever. I don't know how talented Fulmer is as AD, but at least he cares. But you are right, Bev and Fulmer will stay until the big poobahs think they can escape the wrath of the fans when they fire them.
 
#2,325
#2,325
On Day 4 of Tennessee’s spring practice, the Vols continue to work on fundamentals and scheme install.

Here’s the VolQuest.com observations…

* Tracy Rocker heaped some praise on his unit early in practice, specifically complimenting Jonathan Kongbo, Alexis Johnson, Matthew Butler and Greg Emerson for good pad level during drill work.

“There you go, G!.”

Emerson continues to impress in his second week of collegiate football. The early enrollee has shown no ill affects from his broken leg and comes off the ball with power and quickness in drills. He’s holding 300 pounds well, too. Naturally, his conditioning still needs work, but Emerson is a guy I didn’t think would contribute much in the fall and he’s quickly changing my mind there.

* On the flip-side, Tennessee’s outside linebackers were getting the business from position coach Chris Rumph today. The longtime SEC assistant was so mad at the start of one drill he made the entire unit do up-downs. “Y’all aren’t ready to practice today.” Ryan Thaxton and Jordan Allen were particularly drawing Rumph’s ire, with Allen later having to do more up-downs during the drill work.

* Tennessee’s offensive line had an extra body during some drill work today, as K’Rojhn Calbert worked some with the unit during run blocking drills.

* Later in practice, Tennessee’s LBs and DBs worked together on combo-coverages. The Vols were installing Alabama’s pass-matching scheme. Jeremy Pruitt, Kevin Sherrer, Charles Kelly and Terry Fair were all involved in the install. They split the field and worked two plays back-to-back. The start of the drill consisted of Quart’e Sapp at the WILL with Abernathy at safety and Baylen Buchanan at CB. On the other side, Nigel Warrior was at safety with Will Ignont at linebacker and Marquill Osborne at corner. Shawn Shamburger repped with the 2s, as did Theo Jackson at safety.

At the same time, the DL and OLBs were working on defending the zone read.

THIS & THAT

* The routes-on-air period today was just so-so. Will McBride was hot on some close throws, while Jarrett Guarantano was corrected on ball placement several times by OC/QB coach Tyson Helton. Guarantano did unleash a couple sweet play-action bombs — an element we know will be a big part of Helton’s offense. Later, all the QBs — Guarantano, McBride and the walk-ons — were crisp on rollout throws but struggled to complete a single pass on deep corner routes.

* It’s Day 4, and Latrell Williams is still healthy and still garnering attention. He’s thicker in the lower half and continues to just burst after the catch. He also plucks the ball out of the air better than most of the WRs on the roster. It appears he’s battling with Brandon Johnson for the first-team spot in the slot. On the outside, Josh Palmer and Marquez Callaway took the first reps with Jordan Murphy and freshman Alontae Taylor slotting in behind them.

* The guys working on the side remained the same, with Todd Kelly Jr., Jauan Jennings, Trey Smith and DJ Henderson all training with Fitzgerald. Austin Pope was not with the group but with Fitzgerald on the side working 1-on-1.

* Dillion Bates continues to cross-train at both inside and outside linebacker. Tuesday he was working with the inside linebackers.

* Former longtime FSU and Georgia assistant coach John Lilly was working with Brian Niedermeyer and the tight ends today.

* Phillip Fulmer was present at practice again, chatting with a number of donors and boosters.
Click to expand...

- Simonton
 
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