Going along with the discussion, I see 11 blue chips on our offensive roster this year and 23 blue chips on our defensive roster. I'm throwing out what they have done or not done since they got here and am waiting to see what they will do or not do with the change in staff.
I posted earlier that CFN pegged us to be #39 in the FBS rankings this year. ESPN's pre-spring FPI I think has us around #52 and Bill Connelly's S&P+ projections has us at #79, dead last in the SEC. I suspect Phil Steele will eventually come out with some similarly disappointing projection. Many of if not most of these projections are heavily weighted towards returning production. Additionally, recruiting and coaching stability play a factor. If you understand how the projections are created then it's difficult to argue with the math. One can argue that math doesn't matter and sometimes you would be right but not often. Most of the time, maybe 70+% of the time, you'd be wrong.
I don't want to change anyone's mind about how this season will play out. I want to be optimistic and think we could win as many as 9 games. Realistically, I think we have 3 in the bag and if we can win one of WVa & FL then I'd think we can win one of USCe and Mizzou. I can't imagine we'd lose to Ky or VD. So I think 6 or 7 is possible but bottom line I don't really know enough at this point to even think we'll go bowling. I think after Florida week we'll probably know how its likely to shake out and until then you're guess is as good or as bad as mine. jmo.
What I'm looking for:
Can we find 2 QBs that can effectively run the new offense?
Can we find 7 or 8 guys out of our 12 or so to man a decent offensive line?
Can Jennings and Taylor help Callaway at WR?
Is Wood-Anderson going to be a star for us at TE?
Can Banks help Ty move the chains?
I'm not too worried about safeties, at least not right now.
Do we even have one decent CB on the roster?
I'm uneasy about the front 3 on defense and the ILB/OLB groups are still getting sorted out.
With everything else that we've got to work on in an extremely limited number of practices will we see a major drop off in special teams performance?
Is Peterson capable of earning a starting role in fall camp? How about Carvin? Taylor? Wood-Anderson?
Will either Emerson, Lawless, or Gooden be able to contribute this year enough to make a difference?
Will Jahmir be capable physically to compete for spot on the OL? Will he have enough time to learn a position in the limited time of fall practice?
If we had enough returning production the projections for how this season will play out would be much higher but we don't. As far as math is concerned we're mostly starting from scratch and a lot of people who watched us play last year even though we've changed staffs they still agree with the math. Odds are in their favor to be right. I'm hoping they're wrong and that we somehow get to slide in that small window where the math says we could possibly be a surprise team this year.
My impression is that if we can't do better at WR than we did last year we probably won't do better at QB. Our guys can probably do alright against ETSU, Charlotte, and maybe even UTEP but I didn't think we had an SEC receiving corp. That is my biggest concern on offense.
On defense my biggest concern is CB. I don't think we have any. NONE. NADA. Not a single SEC CB on the roster. I'm hoping we magically discover that we can grow them in just a matter of a few short weeks.
So with that, I'm saying 3-9 wins, probably 6 or 7. I gotta have some faith.
