Official Bracketology Thread

#651
#651
CladInOrange said:
Right now as a 2 seed in SEC Tourney we could very well end up playing UK in our first game if they end up a 7 seed as projected. Would not want to play UK for a 3rd time.
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Right now I think UK is the likely 7 seed. Hoping it ends up being Arkansas
 
#652
#652
golfballs said:
My current s-curve projection:

1 - 1)Nova 2)UVA 3)Kansas 4)Xavier
2 - 8)UNC 7)Auburn 6)TX Tech 5)Cincy
3 - 9)Purdue 10)Duke 11)MSU 12)WVU
4 - 16)OSU 15)Arizona 14)Gonz 13)Tenn

Purdue lacking in the Q1 department, West Virginia helped by it
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How did we fall from the best 3 seed in your projection to a 4 seed? Is it projecting 2 more losses?
 
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#654
#654
Is that link working

'http://www.volnation.com/forum/showpost.php?p=15119518&postcount=55'
 
#657
#657
golfballs said:
My current s-curve projection:

1 - 1)Nova 2)UVA 3)Kansas 4)Xavier
2 - 8)UNC 7)Auburn 6)TX Tech 5)Cincy
3 - 9)Purdue 10)Duke 11)MSU 12)WVU
4 - 16)OSU 15)Arizona 14)Gonz 13)Tenn

Purdue lacking in the Q1 department, West Virginia helped by it
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This with Tennessee going 3-2 or 4-1?
 
#658
#658
golfballs said:
I wanted to see if there was a combination of components from the team sheets which would match what the committee released today. So I ran a solver optimization on all the the components including quadrants (broken down by number of wins and win percentages). There wasn't any combination that produced a ranking that matched what the committee released, so there's obviously a human factor that isn't consistent with the data - no surprise. Anyway, I used the component weighting which matched the closest and applied it to expected ranks and quadrant records at the end of the regular season and this is what I got:

1 - 1)Villanova 2)Virginia 3)Kansas 4)Xavier
2 - 8)TX Tech 7)Purdue 6)Auburn 5)Cincinnati
3 - 9)N Carloina 10)Duke 11)Clems 12)Tennessee
4 - 16)Arizona 15)Gonzaga 14)WVU 13)Michigan St
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Is this what you're trying to post?
 
#660
#660
golfballs said:
4-1
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I guess that’s where I got confused...on Sunday you posted this...


1 - 1)Villanova 2)Virginia 3)Kansas 4)Xavier
2 - 8)TX Tech 7)Purdue 6)Auburn 5)Cincinnati
3 - 9)N Carloina 10)Duke 11)Clems 12)Tennessee
4 - 16)Arizona 15)Gonzaga 14)WVU 13)Michigan St

And said it was Tennessee going 4-2, but then today post this...

1 - 1)Nova 2)UVA 3)Kansas 4)Xavier
2 - 8)UNC 7)Auburn 6)TX Tech 5)Cincy
3 - 9)Purdue 10)Duke 11)MSU 12)WVU
4 - 16)OSU 15)Arizona 14)Gonz 13)Tenn

And say it’s Tennessee finishing 4-1...so given the UGA win that’s saying Tennessee had to close 5-1 to finish 13th on seed list but on Sunday it was 4-2 to finish 12th on the seed list...so just curious what changed so much?
 
#662
#662
The projection I'm using is no longer considering any of our remaining games as Q1. And because that's the biggest determinant, we're not getting a boost.
 
#663
#663
golfballs said:
The projection I'm using is no longer considering any of our remaining games as Q1. And because that's the biggest determinant, we're not getting a boost.
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Shouldn't winning at georgia and/or Miss state likely end up being quadrant 1 wins?
 
#666
#666
Georgia needs to win all of their remaining games except the ones against us to be in the top 70. MSU can afford to lose to TAMU in addition to us, but that's it.

Unfortunately UGA is going to likely be an underdog in all but one of their remaining games. And MSU all but 2
 
#667
#667
If UGA and MSU were to move into Q1, and Tennessee were to win those games, we'd move up at least 2 spots on that curve:

1 - 1)Nova 2)UVA 3)Kansas 4)Xavier
2 - 8)UNC 7)Auburn 6)TX Tech 5)Cincy
3 - 9)Purdue 10)Duke 11)Tenn 12)MSU
4 - 16)OSU 15)Arizona 14)Gonz 13)WVU
 
#668
#668
The SECT is going to be very important for us to pick up "away" Q1 wins. If we win it, we could potentially move up to the 2 line. A couple wins would cement us as a 3.
 
#669
#669
Based on the teams currently projected in the field, once you get to be a 4 seed, there's only marginal benefit moving up a seed line. It's not as dramatic as it could be in some years
 
#670
#670
golfballs said:
The SECT is going to be very important for us to pick up "away" Q1 wins. If we win it, we could potentially move up to the 2 line. A couple wins would cement us as a 3.
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They would be considered neutral site wins if I’m not mistaken. Still a lot of value in those though.
 
#672
#672
I have Arizona now ahead of us after their road win against ASU. Xavier had a few teams on their schedule slide into lower Qs so TT moves above them. Cincy moves down 2 after losing on the road to Houston. Purdue now drops below Duke. OSU falls out after getting hammered. And Bama moves into that last spot.... which obviously Bama seems like a head-scratcher here, but they're expected to be favored in their remaining games projected to have a 7-4 record against Q1 teams which the committee seems to really be favoring. Even though only one win is on the road, a team like Clemson isn't projected to be any better

1 - 1)UVA 2)Nova 3)Kansas 4)TX Tech
2 - 8)UNC 7)Cincy 6)Auburn 5)Xavier
3 - 9)Duke 10)Purd 11)MSU 12)WVU
4 - 16)Bama 15)Zaga 14)Tenn 13)Zona
 
#673
#673
Auburn now a 1 seed out West in Lunardi's bracket.

Tennessee still a 4 seed, but moved to the East in Nova's bracket.

Purdue fell to a 2, Cincy to a 3.

4 losses in a row, and Kentucky climbs back up to an 8 somehow (???). A&M up to a 6, Bama up to a 6, Arky up to a 10. Six total teams moved up in the update, and 5 were SEC teams.
 
#674
#674
cncchris33 said:
Auburn now a 1 seed out West in Lunardi's bracket.

Tennessee still a 4 seed, but moved to the East in Nova's bracket.

Purdue fell to a 2, Cincy to a 3.

4 losses in a row, and Kentucky climbs back up to an 8 somehow (???). A&M up to a 6, Bama up to a 6, Arky up to a 10. Six total teams moved up in the update, and 5 were SEC teams.
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The Kentucky bias is in full effect.
 
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