stock market was up today...

#5,426
#5,426
OuterBanksVol said:
Ha. No. Lost my ass in 2000. Saw 2007 develop and shorted bank stocks and China stocks, did very well. This has been a great run, although I've had no dog in the fight lately. If you believe stocks went up because of Trump, rest assured they go down the same amount plus some should he be impeached. But that's really not why I'm bearish now. All the good news is baked in.
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When your President runs on a pro business pro capitalism pro American agenda..of course stocks go up......A big reason Hussein Obama's markets lagged for so long.
 
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#5,428
#5,428
Head fake week. Fear and greed all about.

Bases are made on time, not price.

It won't surprise me at all for the DJIA to fall below 20k. I'm not going to invest based on it likely to occur though.
 
#5,430
#5,430
OuterBanksVol said:
I've invested in the stock market since I was a teenager. Glocker Hall grad '90.

Sell. At least reduce your stock exposure. The fact that everyone is still bullish is unnerving.

The bond market is rarely wrong. Interest rates are going up, and that's bad for stocks.

Plus, sorry to say it, when Trump is impeached later this year... cliff.
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Selling is the absolute worst thing you can do. Millions of people did this in 08, locked in capital losses and then sat out of the rebound. So not only did they not recover but $50k in capital loss does you little good when you refuse to get back in the game and you can only take $3k a year. The market was previously overbought, we all knew this was coming. The underlying financials are good. This is a healthy move downward.

If you got into the market assuming it always goes up all the time I don’t know what to tell you.
 
#5,432
#5,432
Trump doesn't seem to have a clue as to how the markets work. Shouldn't have tweeted about it before reading up. Even CNN is calling this a correction. Just makes him look like an idiot.
 
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#5,433
#5,433
OuterBanksVol said:
It's risk and return. As bond yields increase, they compete with stocks.

Stocks had a great run. Sideways at best now.
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Bonds still don't yield enough to account for this 'correction'. Besides those paltry bond yields should be baked in already for the most part. Again, not enough to account for the near 10% carnage. I think this is more about the derivatives on the VIX. How DID the SEC ever approve that crap?
 
#5,446
#5,446
theFallGuy said:
back up to 48+. Seems to be righting itself
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Up a few hundred now. From down 600 to up 300.

Just a little bit swingy today.

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#5,447
#5,447
SpaceCoastVol said:
Bonds still don't yield enough to account for this 'correction'. Besides those paltry bond yields should be baked in already for the most part. Again, not enough to account for the near 10% carnage. I think this is more about the derivatives on the VIX. How DID the SEC ever approve that crap?
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The move is big on a relative, not absolute basis. The smart money knows that this economy cannot handle normalized (i.e., 4-5% on the 10-year Treasury, which are still kind of low by historical standards) interest rates. The yield on the 10-year has run up nearly 100 basis points since last August, and has risen about 40 bps just since the start of the year That's a relatively large move in a short period of time, and it eventually bleeds into borrowing costs for everything and will force the Fed perhaps to raise rates faster than anticipated. That creates uncertainly, and if there is any consistent trait of markets it is that they shoot first, ask questions later in the face of uncertainty.

The bond market is like the smarter, more mature sibling to the stock market, and it is also many times larger. It can take the stock market a while to figure out that perhaps it should be paying attention to events in the bond market (see summer of 2007 for a perfect example of this). Delayed reactions are common.

The VIX funds are a technical factor that might be contributing to short-term volatility but when this market is brought down (yes that's a when, not if) it won't be because of these stupid VIX ETFs.

The single biggest reason the market has declined recently, IMO, is simply because buyers are exhausted. Valuations are a little rich (and have been for a while), and a large amount of good news like the tax cuts, recent job gains, and corporate earnings have been priced in via the ramp. Then, when you get a break like we saw last week, that affects confidence and the whole dynamic in the market can change. The price action on Tuesday was classic bottoming activity (gap down after a bloodbath the way before, then rally for the balance of the day) but we broke those lows yesterday and the process has to start again.
 
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#5,448
#5,448
Buy more dividend paying shares at lower prices.. easy money.. most people want to be living off dividend when they retire in combination of the 4% rule
 
#5,449
#5,449
05_never_again said:
The move is big on a relative, not absolute basis. The smart money knows that this economy cannot handle normalized (i.e., 4-5% on the 10-year Treasury, which are still kind of low by historical standards) interest rates. The yield on the 10-year has run up nearly 100 basis points since last August. That's a relatively large move in a short period of time, and it eventually bleeds into borrowing costs for everything and will force the Fed perhaps to raise rates faster than anticipated. That creates uncertainly, and if there is any consistent trait of markets it is that they shoot first, ask questions later in the face of uncertainty.

The VIX funds are a technical factor that might be contributing to short-term volatility but when this market is brought down (yes that's a when, not if) it won't be because of these stupid VIX ETFs.

The single biggest reason the market has declined recently, IMO, is simply because buyers are exhausted. Valuations are a little rich (and have been for a while), and a large amount of good news like the tax cuts, recent job gains, and corporate earnings have been priced in via the ramp. Then, when you get a break like we saw last week, that affects confidence and the whole dynamic in the market can change. The price action on Tuesday was classic bottoming activity (gap down after a bloodbath the way before, then rally for the balance of the day) but we those lows yesterday and the process has to start again.
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So everybody hit the wall at the same time? Sorry, I don't buy that. TO the degree that it bottomed the past few days, it wouldn't make sense that SOMEBODY wouldn't be out there buying. I agree that on a relative basis this isn't all that big, but for 2 days the absolute carnage was pretty significant.

I'm not a conspiracy theorist, but....
 
#5,450
#5,450
Been buying at the end of the big down days, especially strong dividend stocks as the yield goes up.
 
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