News has been slow so lurking wasnt enough. I decided to do a little analysis to understand positions and motivations to try to define alliances and possible outcomes. All is based on my analysis and biases; I do believe information Beaver and ATL Vol provided is credible and I refuse to consider anyone but Gruden as the prospective coach.
Boosters want Control/Natty their Tools are $$/Influence and Actions for them would be to Coalesce and Engage Fan Base.
Chancellor wants Control/Top Tier U with Tools being Management Role for AA & AD actions being adhere to Chain of Command (CoC) and find Win for AA (Funding).
Board of Trustees (BoT) wants Top Tier U/Natty with Tools being Oversight & Spend Plan and Action being Overall Approval.
Athletic Dept (AD) wants Control/Natty with Tools being Prog Structure/Contract and Actions being New Contract and Buyout.
New Coach wants Family Happy, Control, Natty/$$$ with Tools being Skillset, Reputation, and Actions being Negotiation
Current Coach wants Reputation/$$, with Tool being current Contract, and Actions being Negotiation.
Interestingly enough I think the desires are really shared however the priority and primary holder changes based on the actor. The tools to leverage the desires of the actors and the actions taken are where I think we can fit a few of the pieces of information together and possibly speculate on future actions. I also think the outside influences of the concussed player, early signing period, stadium renovations, and fan base do play a role in hastening the final decisions.
Control is key, everyone involved has an ego and believes they should be in control. Im sure negotiations in this area have been ongoing for months. The Athletic Dept (AD) is forced to receive direction from the Chancellor, new coach will want full control, Boosters have money which typically equates to control or at a minimum strong influence, and BOT has oversight for all. Winner in the control area will be Gruden, he doesnt come unless he can run the program. Somewhat of a loser in this is Currie, as the Chancellor will continue to force chain-of-command (CoC). Im sure when Gruden wins a Natty Curries ego will get a boost as he will look brilliant as will the Boosters who also have to release some control. Im not sure who but I think someone has reshaped how the Boosters look at things. However the stadium renovation, getting Gruden, and public opinion when the program hits the top will likely be enough to compensate Booster egos.
Once the control issue is settled the next issue is making UT a top tier academic/research university. I dont know who came upon the VC idea, possibly the Scarabbeans and/or Boosters. I must say whoever is responsible it is a brilliant solution. I believe the AA will make some changes to accommodate AD needs, but it wont be a very public change. All needs are met for all parties including the VC team.
Last remaining area is the incoming and outgoing coach. I didnt see Gruden as possible in 2012 as he was still building his brand, but I believe it will happen now. All his desires will be met not the least of which is his familys preferences. The outgoing coachs desires are somewhat more interesting of late given the concussed player, team record, and ire of the fan base. He went from a strong position due to contract obligations to a significantly weak position. I do believe the Chancellor was holding out hope for him, but now all bets are off as the reputation of the University overshadows any allegiance she may have had. He will end up with nothing (fired for cause) or a significantly reduced buyout going quietly to salvage some of his reputation. I believe this will be within the next 4 days. The key for me with this is the Chancellors desire to fully exercise her authority in the CoC and receive credit for and AA and AD positive action. She answers to the president and BoT, she will not allow AD to move forward with anything until she provides her brief and gains credit. I think this happens today, then the timing of the firing will be based on the BoT, UT lawyers, along with input from key Boosters.
Lastly the hire date for Gruden, this one is a real stretch as there are many things that influence. Im sure the Chancellor will be standing with the AD when this happens and key boosters will be in the room, I just dont know timing because ESPN and other Gruden endorsement interests have to be considered. I do think it will be at least a week or more before early signing period.
Let me say I have ZERO inside info, just looking at posts, the Chancellor's duties, and my crystal ball. Apologies for length of post, but this is what happens when all you do is read VolNation.
SOON!