Recruiting Forum Football Talk XXXVI

[GoBigOrangeVols]

Florida has only a 21.6% chance of winning its next three games (@UK, Vandy, LSU). Throw their A&M game in too, and they have only a 16% chance of winning all four heading into their matchup with Georgia.

 

[Darth_Shiveman]

I'll post some other interesting (at least to me) FPI predictions.

Vandy has a 14.2% of losing its next 5 games in a row. Consider that our current chance of beating Alabama is 11%, and Vandy has a greater chance of losing 5 in a row than we do of beating the Tide.

Vandy loses at least 3/5 IMO.


Bama is gonna crush them into dirt.

 

[LaagerVol]

Blame for losses always fall squarely on the HC, however, the coaches did not lose this game, IMO.



It was a called run on 1st down that was blown dead because Jack Jones had the false start, moving the ball back to the 6. On 1st down from the 6, from the alignment it looked like the initial call was another handful to JJ, as everyone was in tight with 2 receivers spread to the right. It was QD, not the coaches, who checked into a passing play, as he should have, because he saw that UF had 9 defenders in the box and he had 2 one on one matchups on the outside. And he threw the perfect catchable pass to Palmer on his outside shoulder where only he could catch the ball. But Palmer made a freshman mistake and turned to look back over his left shoulder instead of his right, so that he had to do a 360* turn to get to the ball, and he didn't secure it. But it was a perfect read by QD and a good throw. On 2nd down it was a screen to JK, giving him the ball in space, but UF just did a nice job of sniffing it out. And then on 3rd and goal from the 6 your options are more limited. But bottom line, the intent was to run initially, but first a penalty, and then QD saw a packed box and one on one opportunities on the outside. If freshman WR doesn't make a freshman mistake that was an easy 6 pts.



It depends on how the defense is aligned. I assume you are referring to UT's last drive. The coaches, or QD, obviously saw something in UF's alignment that made them go to the throw on first down, and I am having a hard time understanding why anyone is complaining about it. The middle of the defense was wide open and JK snuck into the void for what should have been a wide open TD, but JK simply didn't secure the ball. Pretty sure JK would tell you that was on him, not the coaches.



With all due respect, those points are very debatable. A good offense takes advantage of what the defense shows. And in those 2 series UT took advantage of what UF was showing defensively and should have had easy TDs in both situations if a player had executed correctly.

You're ok with us running the ball zero times on 7 plays inside their 10 yard line, with JK at RB who had been torching them. I'm not ok with that and never will be. The things you mentioned are part of the reason. FRESHMAN WR that has drops in the previous two games is who we're going to with the game on the line?

You left out the first play of the sequence and started with the second play after we had already thrown a pass first and goal. First and goal from INSIDE the 1 and QD checks to a pass? That shouldn't have been an option. It especially should have been conveyed to RUN the ball on second down.

Also, we never should have taken a chance on giving them their pick 6. Ever.

 

[Darth_Shiveman]

Seriously though, Vandy's run game has been absolute garbage thus far.

Shurmur has been better, but with no run game to lean on I think SEC play will be much less kind to him.

 

[GoBigOrangeVols]

Tennessee has a 5% of winning all of its remaining games, with the exception of the Alabama game.

On a positive note, Tennessee has only a 22.4% chance of losing all three of UGA, Bama and LSU.

 

[mccrackb]

Exactly this.

The old saying, "The grass is always greener on the other side of fence". This is our fanbase's motto with coaching, QB's, middle linebackers, and corners.

 

[BruinVol]

Good thing games aren't played on computers. Didn't we have less than 10% chance of winning the ga tech game much of the 4th qt?

 

[LaagerVol]

Seriously though, Vandy's run game has been absolute garbage thus far.

Shurmur has been better, but with no run game to lean on I think SEC play will be much less kind to him.

I think Vandy is better than they have been, but beating K-State to me doesn't make them a juggernaut. K-State being ranked that high is laughable, in the same way that Iowa was 3 yrs ago and NW was 2 years ago.

Let's see how Vandy does over the next 5 weeks before we crown them.

 

[GoBigOrangeVols]

Auburn only has a 38.3% chance of winning its next 3 in a row (Mizzou, Miss St., Ole Miss) before heading to Baton Rouge to play LSU where they are currently predicted to lose. If Gus loses to of his next four, which is predicted, the natives on the plains are going to be very very restless.

 

[drvenner]

Then we can really get serious and Firing someone

It sounds like that's what you want to happen. Serious question, if it meant Butch would be fired right after, would you hope that we do get boat-raced by Georgia?

 

[Bassmaster_Vol]

The old saying, "The grass is always greener on the other side of fence". This is our fanbase's motto with coaching, QB's, middle linebackers, and corners.

In this case, the grass is definitely greener.

 

[drvenner]

Did you watch the Mercer game? They were in legitimate danger of losing until late. They're not a good team at all.

You can't pick and choose which games you evaluate them on. They did hold Clemson to 14 and that is noteworthy. I do agree that their offense is not very good, even though they have a stud RB. That is totally on Malzahn, IMO.

 

[BruinVol]

In this case, the grass is definitely greener.

LOL. Clean up a few mistakes and QD can be dang good. He gets 2 more weeks to do that

 

[GoBigOrangeVols]

Even after they play Florida, Georgia has only a 21.3% of winning its last 3 SEC games against South Carolina, @Auburn and Kentucky. It is imperative that we beat the Dawgs next week.

Very real chance that 6-2 wins the East outright.

 

[volfanCLT]

The old saying, "The grass is always greener on the other side of fence". This is our fanbase's motto with coaching, QB's, middle linebackers, and corners.

In regards to coaching and corners, our grass currently looks like this.

 

[drvenner]

We have a better chance of beating those teams with JG

Based upon how he lit it up against Indiana State? How many practices have you been to? Do we even know what kind of runner he actually is? No, we don't.

 

[McGeesPub]

Would that not prove he was a great hire? I know that's not the narrative on here. That's the Smart is dumb and Chaney is fat and terrible stuff.

We would be saying Butch was a great hire if he won 10 games once in his first 4 years, much less play for a SEC championship and a possible NC. Instead we lose to Vandy, USCe, a bad UF team, etc. and eliminate the possibility.

It's silly to write him off after one year, especially when a lot of those same people are probably saying "Well, let's see what Butch can do in 2018."

 

[Darth_Shiveman]

I think Vandy is better than they have been, but beating K-State to me doesn't make them a juggernaut. K-State being ranked that high is laughable, in the same way that Iowa was 3 yrs ago and NW was 2 years ago.

Let's see how Vandy does over the next 5 weeks before we crown them.

Exactly. And KSU actually had a decent amount of success on the ground against Vandy's vaunted def naw.

Bama' run game won't be slowed down too much Saturday.

 

[Darth_Shiveman]

LOL. Clean up a few mistakes and QD can be dang good. He gets 2 more weeks to do that

I don't disagree here. But we haven't seen QD clean up the weak points in his game in 3 games yet.

Once we see him have a steady game I'll stop thinking that getting JG ready is vital for this season. Until then, I can't get behind QD being our best and/or only bet at QB.

 

[BruinVol]

I don't disagree here. But we haven't seen QD clean up the weak points in his game in 3 games yet.

Once we see him have a steady game I'll stop thinking that getting JG ready is vital for this season. Until then, I can't get behind QD being our best and/or only bet at QB.

I just don't blame those 3 picks on him last week. Only one was his fault imo

 

[nicksjuzunk]

I just don't blame those 3 picks on him last week. Only one was his fault imo

People have trouble separating valid criticism from all possible criticism

 

[ob79]

QD's mechanics are in desperate need of refinement, to say the least. I'm far from an educated observer but even an layman like me knows that it's "bad" to throw off your back foot--and that's something QD does more often than not.

 

[Bassmaster_Vol]

Based upon how he lit it up against Indiana State? How many practices have you been to? Do we even know what kind of runner he actually is? No, we don't.

Based on how bad Dormady has looked. He threw 12 passes against ISU and got better once he settled down. We've seen enough of Dormady to know that he isn't good and offers nothing to this offense. At least when JG got under pressure he could tuck the ball and run and not throw off of his back foot into triple coverage. JG is the future and I'd rather play him now and get him experience than trot Worley 2.0 out there every week. He may not be as good as Worley. I don't remember Worley's decision making being as bad as Dormady's anyway.

 

[Bassmaster_Vol]

I don't disagree here. But we haven't seen QD clean up the weak points in his game in 3 games yet.

Once we see him have a steady game I'll stop thinking that getting JG ready is vital for this season. Until then, I can't get behind QD being our best and/or only bet at QB.

Yep

 

[volfanCLT]

QD's mechanics are in desperate need of refinement, to say the least. I'm far from an educated observer but even an layman like me knows that it's "bad" to throw off your back foot--and that's something QD does more often than not.

So far Canales has been a bust.

QD footwork is all over the place and some of the worst I’ve seen.

JG is as talented as anyone and he’s not ready to step in and make plays yet. He has to be developed.