Just how talented is the 2017 Vols roster?

#101
#101
Dobbs 4 Heisman said:
No. For 2 reasons: (1) Every team has attrition. So in the end it evens out. (2) My rankings are not supposed to be a precise measure of talent but rather just a rough estimate. That is why I included the part of different tiers. Rather than looking at whether a team is ranked #5 or #6. Or even looking at the final score. Its better to look at the different tiers and how close or far they are from other teams.

If you notice the only team has distanced themselves from their closest competition is Alabama. Everyone else has 4-5 teams that are roughly the same talent-wise. So I would say its better to look at this as more of a rough measure of the talent level on each of the top teams than looking at it as a definitive ranking that is in order of who is actually more talented than who.
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You do know Jones has the highest attrition rate in the SEC since he has been here?

So not accounting for the big factors makes this incomplete and kinda lazy.
 
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#102
#102
Burger said:
You do know Jones has the highest attrition rate in the SEC since he has been here?

So not accounting for the big factors makes this incomplete and kinda lazy.
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Where's your data and source. I call BS. AU lost 11 in 2016, LSU 10 since CEO, how many have we lost by name 2016-17?
 
#104
#104
Burger said:
How many players have we lost from 2013 to now? I would say we have a 1/3 of the 2014 class left.
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Well that's an opinion. Not counting graduation or the NFL, How many have we lost 16-17? Not many and Jones certainly doesn't lead the SEC. Saban has lost more QBs than we have total players.
 
#105
#105
PrattvilleVol said:
Well that's an opinion. Not counting graduation or the NFL, How many have we lost 16-17? Not many and Jones certainly doesn't lead the SEC. Saban has lost more QBs than we have total players.
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If his numbers are correct, that would not be an opinion, but fact. The emphasis for this analysis was the junior class not 16-17. So its a valid point.
 
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#107
#107
volfannbama said:
If his numbers are correct, that would not be an opinion, but fact. The emphasis for this analysis was the junior class not 16-17. So its a valid point.
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In other words its an opinion until we have a full team by team break down from a documented source.
 
#109
#109
I think he's right to question the assumption that what happened with the '14 signing class has continued with later classes.

We all know the '14 gang had higher than normal pre-graduation attrition. Because people actually did the analysis.

But I haven't seen any numbers since a couple of folks broke that class down. And, intuitively, it seems attrition is way down since. We might actually be one of the better programs in the SEC (or even throughout Div I) with the '15, '16, and '17 classes so far.

Wouldn't know until someone did the analysis, would we?
 
#112
#112
VFL-82-JP said:
I think he's right to question the assumption that what happened with the '14 signing class has continued with later classes.

We all know the '14 gang had higher than normal pre-graduation attrition. Because people actually did the analysis.

But I haven't seen any numbers since a couple of folks broke that class down. And, intuitively, it seems attrition is way down since. We might actually be one of the better programs in the SEC (or even throughout Div I) with the '15, '16, and '17 classes so far.

Wouldn't know until someone did the analysis, would we?
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Check my work, but this was attrition of 2015, 2016

2015 - 7 (I don't count Vincent Perry due to academics)
2016 - 1 (Mykelle McDaniel)

Granted the 2014 class had a higher than normal attrition rate. These were the guys out of I think 32 overall signings

2014 -
Jalen Hurd
Dewayne Hendrix
Derrell Scott
Daniel Helm
Dontavius Blair (grad transfer I believe)
Deandre Payne
Gavin Bryant
Charles Mosley
Michael Sawyers
Joe Henderson
Vic Wharton
Treyvon Paulk (dismissed from team)
Dimarya Mixon
Neiko Creamer
 
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#113
#113
Power T-Rev said:
Check my work, but this was attrition of 2015, 2016

2015 - 7 (I don't count Vincent Perry due to academics)
2016 - 1 (Mykelle McDaniel)

Granted the 2014 class had a higher than normal attrition rate. I counted something like 12-13 guys gone from that class
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Cool, thanks T-Rev.

Now we need to find one of those Bleecher Report or 247 sites that keeps tally of the attrition rates by class for every program, so we can see how we stack up in the '15, '16, and '17 signing classes.

That's the litmus test. Until we have something to compare them to, the raw numbers just kind of sit there as a curiosity. Know what I mean?


EDIT: I did a quick google for it, couldn't find anything more recent than 2014 signing classes. Maybe one of our gurus has a source.

2nd EDIT and p.s. Wasn't our 2009 class the highest pre-graduation attrition for our program in living memory? Something like 80% of that class left early (thanks again, Kiffin!).
 
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#115
#115
VFL-82-JP said:
Do you have it by signing class, KB? Appreciate the work behind the numbers, takes a lot more effort than "29" would seem. :hi:
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Yes. Just went to 247, clicked on Tennessee, looked through each Vol signing class 2013-2016 and counted the guys who left the program. Took 6-7 minutes. Huge number from 2014 class, a lot from 2015, not many (hopefully not yet) from 2016.
 
#119
#119
UT is talented enough to win the East. It's not a slam dunk for anybody. UGA has OL issues and UF lost a lot of players and has questions at QB. UGA and UF both have a tough SECW draw-- UT's is the toughest, but we get UGA at home and UGA plays both UF and UT OTR. It's possible a 9-3/5-3 SECE team could get to ATL.
 
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#120
#120
The amount of NFL caliber talent still left on this roster is being severely underestimated. I know the media is running with the fact that we lost 6 guys to the NFL as a major reason for why we might be in for a down year. Well think again. I think we will have significantly more than 6 guys drafted next year. And the NFL draft train doesn't stop there cause we still have talent left on the roster that will also be well represented in the 2019 draft and beyond.

2018 Potential Draftees
(Offense)
QB Quinten Dormady (Jr.) - 1st round
RB John Kelly (Jr.) - 2nd round
WR Jauan Jennings (Jr.) - 2nd round
TE Ethan Wolf (Sr.) - 3rd round
OL Jashon Robertson (Sr.) - 4th round

(Defense)
DE Jonathan Kongbo (RS Jr.) - 1st round
DT Kendal Vickers (RS Sr.) - 3rd round
LB Darrin Kirkland Jr. (Jr.) - 2nd round
CB Justin Martin (Sr.) - 1st round
CB Emmanuel Moseley (Sr.) - 6th round
S Todd Kelly Jr. (Sr.) - 4th round

(Special Teams)
P Trevor Daniel (RS Sr.) - 6th round
KR Evan Berry (Sr.) - 7th round

2019 Potential Draftees
(Defense)
DE Darrell Taylor (RS Jr.)
DE Kyle Phillips (Sr.)
DT Kahlil McKenzie (Sr.)
DT Shy Tuttle (Sr.)
LB Daniel Bituli (Jr.)
LB Austin Smith (RS Jr.)
CB/S Rashaan Gaulden (RS Sr.)
S Nigel Warrior (Jr.)
S Micah Abernathy (Sr.)


THIS ROSTER IS ABSOLUTELY LOADED WITH NFL TALENT. We could have 22 players drafted over the next 2 years. 13 in 2018 and 9 in 2019. IMO the NFL talent seems to be heavily concentrated on the defensive side of the ball. And this does coincides with everything we have been hearing from in camp about the defense dominating the scrimmages.
 
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#121
#121
That would be very bittersweet. It would be great for the programs image but If all those JRs declare then 2019 could easily be a 6-6 season or worse.
 
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