Phil Steele has Vols In "Bear Market"

[MWAVolfan]

I would hate to have Phil's job with Butch as head coach. Who the heck knows when that guy is gonna go completely off the rails and if your gonna error you should hedge your bet on the under, not the over, that's for sure.

Anybody that predicts better than 4 losses has heavy explaining to do because there's never been an instance of any real life event that backs that kind of claim up. It's the purest form of a wild @ss guess where as this is an attempt at an educated guess based on impirical data.

 

[VFL-82-JP]

i don't think he would because he goes back 3 years, which, i'm sure in his mind, is accounting for talent improvement/decline, coaching changes....etc...

and he would probably then show you that 34% of the time it's wrong, so no, it's not perfect, and he'd move on.

just like we probably should, agree?

I didn't say anything about talent improvement/decline, coaching changes, etc. I think you're confusing my response with someone else's.

Look, this tool is simply a flat-line trend analysis formula. It says a team will continue to do roughly as well as it has done in recent years. So if last year the team suffered a down blip, it's likely to bounce back this year. If the team overachieved last year, they're likely to come back toward their average this year.

That's all it says.

Nothing about predicting which games will be won, nothing about analysis based on games teams typically win, nothing like any of that. It's a far more crude tool than you are giving it credit for being. It's a flat-line trend analysis formula. Period.

And it doesn't work for programs in transition, because they're not on a flat line.

 

[05_never_again]

Anybody that predicts better than 4 losses has heavy explaining to do because there's never been an instance of any real life event that backs that kind of claim up. It's the purest form of a wild @ss guess where as this is an attempt at an educated guess based on impirical data.

Yep. At Tennessee Butch has won a single game that he "hasn't supposed to" (2013 South Carolina) but has dropped a couple of games he should have won. In all of his "big wins" we've been favored, sometimes by quite a few points.

Based on his history, you have to pencil in Florida, Georgia, Alabama, and LSU as losses and hope he doesn't drop a game to someone like Tech, Kentucky, or Vandy. I think 4 wins is likely, either to first 4 teams mentioned or he finds a way to upset one of those teams but gets upset by another.

 

[VFL-82-JP]

Vegas is not in the prediction business, and any line/point total/win total they put out there is not a prediction in any way.

Actually, it is. It's a one-off prediction. Because it's a prediction of what the collective betting public would predict.

Vegas is predicting nothing about football games themselves, you're absolutely right. But by trying to find the center point for all bettors, they're reflecting what the betting public as a group think the result will be. So it turns out it is a prediction, after all. Just not Vegas' prediction.

Whether you think crowd-based predictions have value (are often right) or not, well, that's an entirely different debate.

 

[VFL-82-JP]

Do you know why it's hard to get a solid prediction out of him? Because coaches lose games they have no business losing that not a single human being, not even the fans of those teams would predict. The teams that are easy to predict are the teams that take care of business every week. They don't lose mind boggling games and they don't win mind boggling games. They just take care of business.

Hard to get a solid prediction out of who? Phil Steele? Not at all true, he makes predictions all the time. And sometimes his various predicting tools contradict each other. *shrug* he's into mathematical analysis as a predictive tool, it would be weird for him not to be making predictions.

As for coaches that "just take care of business," show me one of them. Even a fellow like Saban can lose, mind-bogglingly, to say Ole Miss two years in a row.

Stuff happens. It's football. Teams gets surprised all the time, good teams and bad teams, great coaches and mediocre and turrible. It's football.

 

[MWAVolfan]

Yep. At Tennessee Butch has won a single game that he "hasn't supposed to" (2013 South Carolina) but has dropped a couple of games he should have won. In all of his "big wins" we've been favored, sometimes by quite a few points.

Based on his history, you have to pencil in Florida, Georgia, Alabama, and LSU as losses and hope he doesn't drop a game to someone like Tech, Kentucky, or Vandy. I think 4 wins is likely, either to first 4 teams mentioned or he finds a way to upset one of those teams but gets upset by another.

The other Georgia school-L
Fighting Larry Birds-W
Reptile Turds-L
Patriots Jr-W
Dog Turds - L
USCjr-win this game and lose to the other sport in KY
Elephant Turds - L
The other sport in Kentucky - Win this game and lose to USCjr
So Miss(no good nickname) -W
Misery-W
LSWho-W
Candy - W

That's a perfectly likely outcome. Given everything we know. The unknowns usually end up being a wash, some good things and some bad things.

 

[MWAVolfan]

Hard to get a solid prediction out of who? Phil Steele? Not at all true, he makes predictions all the time. And sometimes his various predicting tools contradict each other. *shrug* he's into mathematical analysis as a predictive tool, it would be weird for him not to be making predictions.

As for coaches that "just take care of business," show me one of them. Even a fellow like Saban can lose, mind-bogglingly, to say Ole Miss two years in a row.

Stuff happens. It's football. Teams gets surprised all the time, good teams and bad teams, great coaches and mediocre and turrible. It's football.

Sure even Saban can lose sometimes but more often than not predicting how many wins he will get is way easier than predicting how many Butch will get. That's because way more often than not Saban takes care of business and doesn't lose a game or games he isn't supposed to lose. And having a solid repeatable track record of consistency in this way only makes it easier. The only thing predictable about Butch is that he will have an excuse ready for the presser. It sucks but it's true. Half the games on the schedule could legitimately be argued as a coin toss. Not so with Saban.

 

[DERELICK_MY_VOLS]

Phil Steele can....

Go Vols!!!

 

[LA Vol]

Here's a prediction with real simple math: if the Vols go 8-4 with losses to UF, UGA, Bama and LSU and come in 3rd in the SECE, a 4th bowl game isn't going to pacify very many people. A lot of fans are going to be mad as a grizzly.

 

[05_never_again]

Here's a prediction with real simple math: if the Vols go 8-4 with losses to UF, UGA, Bama and LSU and come in 3rd in the SECE, a 4th bowl game isn't going to pacify very many people. A lot of fans are going to be mad as a grizzly.

A lot of it depends on how exactly Tennessee loses those games too. If we are noncompetitive in a couple of them, then 8-4 is going to have people ticked off as you said.

I really think Butch, for his own sake, needs to find a way to beat Georgia and/or LSU since those two games are at home. They likely are the two most winnable of those four games regardless of where they are played anyway.

If we have 3 losses coming into the LSU game and get blown out in that game, I fear Butch would enter 2018 as a lame duck coach and it would impact recruiting. People react to losses at the end of the season way more strongly than at the beginning.

 

[butchna]

Here's a prediction with real simple math: if the Vols go 8-4 with losses to UF, UGA, Bama and LSU and come in 3rd in the SECE, a 4th bowl game isn't going to pacify very many people. A lot of fans are going to be mad as a grizzly.

Same ones as now.

 

[wildorange]

All subjective BS, from top to bottom it will be decided on the field! GBO!!!!

 

[LA Vol]

A lot of it depends on how exactly Tennessee loses those games too. If we are noncompetitive in a couple of them, then 8-4 is going to have people ticked off as you said.

I really think Butch, for his own sake, needs to find a way to beat Georgia and/or LSU since those two games are at home. They likely are the two most winnable of those four games regardless of where they are played anyway.

If we have 3 losses coming into the LSU game and get blown out in that game, I fear Butch would enter 2018 as a lame duck coach and it would impact recruiting. People react to losses at the end of the season way more strongly than at the beginning.

A competitive loss is still a loss. If we go .500 or worse in the SEC with losses to all three rivals and both SECW teams, I think there will be a bigger backlash than if one of the losses is GT. I agree that UGA at home is a must-win. IMO, 9-3 calms the crazy; 8-4, it's still dicey.

 

[LA Vol]

Same ones as now.

And maybe a few more. OK, more than a few. JP will do the math.

 

[butchna]

And maybe a few more. OK, more than a few. JP will do the math.

None of the loud ones are shy now. How will we know the difference with meek negavol converts?

 

[05_never_again]

A competitive loss is still a loss. If we go .500 or worse in the SEC with losses to all three rivals and both SECW teams, I think there will be a bigger backlash than if one of the losses is GT. I agree that UGA at home is a must-win. IMO, 9-3 calms the crazy; 8-4, it's still dicey.

Yes, but the competitive losses, especially ones when you play well but the other team is just better (as opposed to a game where both teams play terribly) don't rev up the "we need to fire the coach" train quite as much.

9-3 absolutely calms the crazy, because that means that we probably beat one of Florida, Georgia, Alabama, and LSU and win all the other games. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to see him get some small raise/extension if he does that. A win in the bowl game would mean double-digit wins for the first time since 2007.

8-4 is status quo and the angst remains, although it could mean lame duck status for Butch depending on who those losses were to and how the games were lost.

7-5 is lame duck status. In all likelihood that means a loss to a team like Tech, South Carolina, Vandy, or Kentucky in addition to the Florida, Georgia, Alabama, and LSU losses.

6-6 or worse probably means they bite the bullet and fire him after the season. In all likelihood, it would include some type of inexplicable loss in addition to losing against the competitive teams and another inferior team. I just don't see him hanging around if that occurred.

 

[LA Vol]

None of the loud ones are shy now. How will we know the difference with meek negavol converts?

Blood test? See how orange they bleed. That will expose those still in the closet.

 

[BeardedVol]

Yes, but the competitive losses, especially ones when you play well but the other team is just better (as opposed to a game where both teams play terribly) don't rev up the "we need to fire the coach" train quite as much.

9-3 absolutely calms the crazy, because that means that we probably beat one of Florida, Georgia, Alabama, and LSU and win all the other games. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to see him get some small raise/extension if he does that. A win in the bowl game would mean double-digit wins for the first time since 2007.

8-4 is status quo and the angst remains, although it could mean lame duck status for Butch depending on who those losses were to and how the games were lost.

7-5 is lame duck status. In all likelihood that means a loss to a team like Tech, South Carolina, Vandy, or Kentucky in addition to the Florida, Georgia, Alabama, and LSU losses.

6-6 or worse probably means they bite the bullet and fire him after the season. In all likelihood, it would include some type of inexplicable loss in addition to losing against the competitive teams and another inferior team. I just don't see him hanging around if that occurred.

I don't think he'll survive the season if UT is trending towards 6-6 coming out of October. Ending your 5th season with 2 conference wins, the same number as your first season, would get just about any coach at an SEC school fired.

 

[05_never_again]

I don't think he'll survive the season if UT is trending towards 6-6 coming out of October. Ending your 5th season with 2 conference wins, the same number as your first season, would get just about any coach at an SEC school fired.

Isn't there a decent amount of money to be saved if they fire him after the season? That's the only reason they'd keep him around.

 

[BeardedVol]

Isn't there a decent amount of money to be saved if they fire him after the season? That's the only reason they'd keep him around.

I don't think it decreases until February of 2018.

It would depend on whether or not Currie already had someone in mind, or if he wanted to get out ahead of the pack in going after someone like Chip Kelly

 

[LA Vol]

Yes, but the competitive losses, especially ones when you play well but the other team is just better (as opposed to a game where both teams play terribly) don't rev up the "we need to fire the coach" train quite as much.

9-3 absolutely calms the crazy, because that means that we probably beat one of Florida, Georgia, Alabama, and LSU and win all the other games. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to see him get some small raise/extension if he does that. A win in the bowl game would mean double-digit wins for the first time since 2007.

8-4 is status quo and the angst remains, although it could mean lame duck status for Butch depending on who those losses were to and how the games were lost.

7-5 is lame duck status. In all likelihood that means a loss to a team like Tech, South Carolina, Vandy, or Kentucky in addition to the Florida, Georgia, Alabama, and LSU losses.

6-6 or worse probably means they bite the bullet and fire him after the season. In all likelihood, it would include some type of inexplicable loss in addition to losing against the competitive teams and another inferior team. I just don't see him hanging around if that occurred.

Right you are. Most will agree 9-3 or better is a positive, and CBJ will get a raise and extension. Only the diehards will quibble with that. I think most will agree 7-5 or worse is disappointing. Holding the middle at 8-4 feels like we're stuck and will continue the controversy.

I agree that being competitive buys goodwill, but IMO, that applies primarily to Bama. I think UT, UF, UGA and LSU are pretty much on a level playing field, and we get two of them at home. But that's just my opinion now. The coaches recruited the talent-- have they developed it and can we put it all together on the field? When the season starts, we'll see.

 

[05_never_again]

I agree that being competitive buys goodwill, but IMO, that applies primarily to Bama. I think UT, UF, UGA and LSU are pretty much on a level playing field, and we get two of them at home. But that's just my opinion now. The coaches recruited the talent-- have they developed it and can we put it all together on the field? When the season starts, we'll see.

Yep, and of course it depends on how our rivals' seasons turn out too. A well-played, nailbiter loss to Florida looks much better if Florida turns out to be a top 10 team at the end of the year. That game is always early in the season, and you don't know how good or bad the results of early season games look until later on in the year a lot of times.

On the flipside, if LSU turns out to be a 6 win team and we drub them late in the year, that win doesn't look real impressive even though we are assuming today, that if we did beat them, it would be an impressive win that would buy Butch goodwill.

 

[LA Vol]

I don't think it decreases until February of 2018.

I'd depend on whether or not Currie already had someone in mind, or if he wanted to get out ahead of the pack in going after someone like Chip Kelly

I'd be willing to bet Currie has a shortlist-- not that he intends or hopes to use it, but he knows the history. He's not going to get caught unprepared.

Bet CBJ's agent has a shortlist, too. They're all smart guys. They're looking at all the angles.

 

[05_never_again]

I don't think it decreases until February of 2018.

I'd depend on whether or not Currie already had someone in mind, or if he wanted to get out ahead of the pack in going after someone like Chip Kelly

Unfortunately, if it did head south and Butch was let go, I think there are several schools who would be ahead of Tennessee in the Chip Kelly sweepstakes, assuming they have openings too. If we have a bad year and fire Butch, we really need to hope A&M, Notre Dame, UCLA, etc. have good years and keep their coaches

 

[tallyho]

This is really a bit bogus. By Steele's formulation we would be better off if we had totally tanked last year. Well of course if we had lost six games last year we would be poised to have a better season this year. This formulation has no bearing on whether the team is in a position to compete for a championship or not. It's fun to play with numbers, I do it for a living, but it's important to gauge what they are truly telling you.

You could also surmise that in the last two years we lost 8 games of which all but last year's Bama game were winnable. Had we won those 7 games like we probable should of we would have won the East twice and maybe gotten into the playoffs. So in my mind the Vols have been a little unlucky and of course injury prone.