D4H's 2017 NFL Draft Review (Best Picks, Best Drafts, and Predictions)

#158
#158
bamawriter said:
If all goes the way your 2016 picks have gone, it won't take anywhere close to that long.
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2016 was a weak draft class. Other than Ezekiel Elliott and Sterling Shepard, I didn't really love that many of the players in 2016. The few others I really liked like Karl Joseph and Myles Jack were coming off serious injuries.

Unlike last year, there are 30+ guys in this class that I feel really good about. I feel a lot better about this class than last year. As you can see I also devouted a lot more time and research to this years draft. Last year was just a trial run. This year I employed the methods that I will be using going forward.
 
#159
#159
#160
#160
Dobbs 4 Heisman said:
Tom Brady was a 6th rounder. Ryan Leaf was top 3.

Where you are picked doesn't matter.
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Outliers are a lousy way to prop up an argument. Did you know that of last year's top 10 QB's 7 were 1st rounders with another 2nd rounder thrown in to make 8 of 10 2nd rounders or better? You do now. (as inconvenient as that may be)

Then how about this?

During the period studied nearly half of all starters were from only the first 2 rounds and well over half from the 1st 3. When talking about the really good players nearly 1 of every 2 1st/2nd team All Pros were from just the 1st round. Well over 1 in 2 were from the first 2 rounds.
 

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#162
#162
#164
#164
hndog609 said:
Outliers are a lousy way to prop up an argument. Did you know that of last year's top 10 QB's 7 were 1st rounders with another 2nd rounder thrown in to make 8 of 10 2nd rounders or better? You do now. (as inconvenient as that may be)

Then how about this?

During the period studied nearly half of all starters were from only the first 2 rounds and well over half from the 1st 3. When talking about the really good players nearly 1 of every 2 1st/2nd team All Pros were from just the 1st round. Well over 1 in 2 were from the first 2 rounds.
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What measure are you using? Cause if we go by top 10 QBs in terms of QBR, the number goes to 4 out of the top 10 coming from the 3rd round or later.

http://www.espn.com/nfl/qbr/_/stats/expanded

Tom Brady - 6th round
Dak Prescott - 4th round
Kirk Cousins - 4th round
Tyrod Taylor - 5th round

All 4 were top 10 in QBR last year. All 4 were taken in the 4th round or later.

If we go by non-first round QBs then we can also include Drew Brees and it would mean that 5 of the top 10 QBs last year based on QBR were drafted after the 1st round.
 
#166
#166
Dobbs 4 Heisman said:
Look at the first post in this thread.
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Just did.

Maybe you misunderstood, it's ok I'll clarify.

I was looking for some proof, maybe some sort of resume, some past statistics, etc on why you are better than average at finding starters as you claim.
 
#170
#170
Dobbs 4 Heisman said:
What measure are you using? Cause if we go by top 10 QBs in terms of QBR, the number goes to 4 out of the top 10 coming from the 3rd round or later.

http://www.espn.com/nfl/qbr/_/stats/expanded

Tom Brady - 6th round
Dak Prescott - 4th round
Kirk Cousins - 4th round
Tyrod Taylor - 5th round

All 4 were top 10 in QBR last year. All 4 were taken in the 4th round or later.

If we go by non-first round QBs then we can also include Drew Brees and it would mean that 5 of the top 10 QBs last year based on QBR were drafted after the 1st round.
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Yards you disingenuous idgit, the first measure that's always cited. But hey, let's play along with your numbers.

50% of the top 10 are 1st rounders. Hell, 3 of those were top 3 overall picks. Actually when you consider Brees was taken at #32 he may as well be a 1st rounder also. So with over half the top 10 coming from the first 32 picks (4 from the first 11) it's obvious high draft position is VERY strongly correlated considering the over representation of the top of the draft vs all the other rounds.

I see you couldn't muster a sufficient rebuttal to even acknowledge the other cited data.
 
#171
#171
bowlinggreenvol said:
I guarantee you Josh Dobbs will not be the best player in this draft class, no matter how much we all support and respect him.
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I actually think he's the surest bet to finish at my projected spot.

Josh may not be the most talented player in this class but like Tom Brady he will be the most accomplished. He'll be surrounded by incredible talent in Pittsburgh. He'll have incredible stability. The Steelers have been the most consistent NFL franchise of the last 40 years.

Josh will win at least 3 super bowls. If he does that, he'll be the best player from this class even if a couple of other guys are actually more talented.

This might surprise you but I actually think Corey Davis is the single most talented player in this class. That's why I compared him to Jerry Rice. Myles Garrett would be the second most talented player which is why I compared him to Bruce Smith. Josh is not quite as talented as them but he does play the most important position and he will win more super bowls than Corey Davis and Myles Garrett. That is why he will ultimately be the #1 player from this draft class.
 
#172
#172
hndog609 said:
Yards you disingenuous idgit, the first measure that's always cited. But hey, let's play along with your numbers.

50% of the top 10 are 1st rounders. Hell, 3 of those were top 3 overall picks. Actually when you consider Brees was taken at #32 he may as well be a 1st rounder also. So with over half the top 10 coming from the first 32 picks (4 from the first 11) it's obvious high draft position is VERY strongly correlated considering the over representation of the top of the draft vs all the other rounds.

I see you couldn't muster a sufficient rebuttal to even acknowledge the other cited data.
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Passing yards is a dumb way to measure QBs. Typically a QB throws for more yards when they are behind. QBR or QB Rating are better measures of QB play since they measure efficiency rather than just raw totals which can be misleading as a measure of QB play.

For example just because you throw more times than everyone else and end up with more yards doesn't make you a better QB.
 
#173
#173
Dobbs 4 Heisman said:
This might surprise you but I actually think Corey Davis is the single most talented player in this class. That's why I compared him to Jerry Rice. Myles Garrett would be the second most talented player which is why I compared him to Bruce Smith. Josh is not quite as talented as them but he does play the most important position and he will win more super bowls than Corey Davis and Myles Garrett. That is why he will ultimately be the #1 player from this draft class.
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In the other thread you said you compared players based on style of play rather than talent or production. It shouldn't be so hard for you to keep your BS straight since it's in writing.
 
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#174
#174
bamawriter said:
In the other thread you said you compared players based on style of play rather than talent or production. It shouldn't be so hard for you to keep your BS straight since it's in writing.
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When you have diarrhea of the mouth you can't remember what you say. You just no you're spitting up ****.
 
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