Ranking 15 Teams Capable of Winning 2017/2018 National Championship

[Iam4utalways]

I agree with you. I'm just trying to point out that UGA's hail mary is the same as ours. Defensive breakdown and good execution by the offense. It's short-sided to paint one as lucky and the other not.

Theirs wasn't a Hail Mary.

 

[IluvdoubleD's]

10 win season. Book it.

 

[JohnD13]

So you are saying that A&M, USCe, and Vandy all won their respective games against UT on single plays the involved more luck than skill, after trailing in score for the majority of the game?

I don't recall that to be the case in any of those games, and as such, would make them nothing like our wins over App State or Georgia.

And of course our decimated defense had nothing to do with those losses either

 

[Iam4utalways]

I just watched the end if the Ga game.

CBJ was happier than Shoop's after the last stop vs Florida.

 

[BeardedVol]

And of course our decimated defense had nothing to do with those losses either

That's not really relevant to the discussion at hand, but ok.

 

[The Artful Dodger]

I can see where you are going with the A&M game, but losing to A&M in OT due to poor execution, is not the same as winning against App State in OT off of a recovered end zone fumble. How you can equate the two is beyond me really.

As far as beating teams that we "historically handle", that's not been the case with USCe since the end of our 12 game winnings streak in 2004, and that's not been the case with Vandy during CBJ's tenure. Regardless, of those games were similar to the App State, nor the Georgia game, in which winning the game came down to a single play that relied more on luck than skill execute.

Given as such, there's no parity in how close we were to being 6-6, than to how close we were to being 11-1. It takes a phenomenal leap of logic, and a revisionist historical perspective on the season to even suggest as much.

No, it takes picking and choosing which bits of information to use and how to use them. It also takes a lot of pessimism to take to games that were close and label one as luck and the other as execution. I am simply saying that all those games could have gone either way. So yes, 6-6 and 11-1 were both equally possible.

 

[The Artful Dodger]

Theirs wasn't a Hail Mary.

I am the guy on your side. I am trying to point out how it's dumb to view Tennessee's TD as lucky and not UGA's. Both were bad defensive execution mainly, mixed in with some timely execution by the offense.

 

[The Artful Dodger]

That's not really relevant to the discussion at hand, but ok.

It's never relevant in the "we just as easily could have gone 6-6" crowd. Truth is, it was the main determining factor in the late season swoon. How hard is it to notice that the team was 5-0 before injuries kicked in and the losses started coming as those injuries started to pile up.

 

[Doberman]

I am the guy on your side. I am trying to point out how it's dumb to view Tennessee's TD as lucky and not UGA's. Both were bad defensive execution mainly, mixed in with some timely execution by the offense.

Even people on your side have limitations on their mental gymnastics.

 

[fade route]

No, because people like that choose to look at the negative side of the equation. The, "team could have easily gone 6-6 argument" is the best example of this. The team could have also gone 11-1, if it weren't for a mass unit on defense, after a 5-0 start. But they only want to try and make it a negative. That's why nobody takes them seriously.

Give me a friggin break.....6-6 was much more of a possibility than 11-1. If you think otherwise then you didn't watch much football last year.

 

[BeardedVol]

No, it takes picking and choosing which bits of information to use and how to use them. It also takes a lot of pessimism to take to games that were close and label one as luck and the other as execution. I am simply saying that all those games could have gone either way. So yes, 6-6 and 11-1 were both equally possible.

If literally a lucky fumble recovery, and a hail mary, both having low probabilities of success, go against us, we end up 6-6.

To get to 11-1 it would have taken a lot more than having two plays in two different games luckily go our way.

You're promoting a false equivalency in the face of the reality of the 2016 season. The games were already played, we can go back and see how close we were to 6-6 and how close we were to 11-1, and they aren't even in the same solar system.

 

[Iam4utalways]

I am the guy on your side. I am trying to point out how it's dumb to view Tennessee's TD as lucky and not UGA's. Both were bad defensive execution mainly, mixed in with some timely execution by the offense.

We are all Vol here except for some of those dirty gators and smelly bammers.

Our play was ran to plan, Ga's pass protection broke down, so they we even luckier.

But yep.

 

[The Artful Dodger]

If literally a lucky fumble recovery, and a hail mary, both having low probabilities of success, go against us, we end up 6-6.

To get to 11-1 it would have taken a lot more than having two plays in two different games luckily go our way.

You're promoting a false equivalency in the face of the reality of the 2016 season. The games were already played, we can go back and see how close we were to 6-6 and how close we were to 11-1, and they aren't even in the same solar system.

And if A&M throws an INT instead of Dobbs, in OT, then Tennessee wins that game. And if Tennessee doesn't have the Hurd fiasco, a decimated defense, or one or two plays go another way then they don't lose the USCe or Vandy games. Point is, none of the proposed scenarios (By me or you), happened. So, to claim that the plays you picked out are less lucky than any other plays that decided those games is reaching, at best.

 

[The Artful Dodger]

We are all Vol here except for some of those dirty gators and smelly bammers.

Our play was ran to plan, Ga's pass protection broke down, so they we even luckier.

But yep.

Sometimes I wonder about that. And to make things clear I am not happy with the results of last season either, but I also don't think that the program is in bad hands. And when it comes to matters that could be viewed as going either way regarding UT, I choose to go with a positive outlook (not blindly Optimistic), just positive.

 

[VFL-82-JP]

Sometimes I wonder about that.

As do I. I've become convinced over the past year or so that VolNation is infested with fans of other SEC schools pretending to be Vol fans so they can troll the boards. Not just one or a few, but several.

Hard to explain otherwise so many negative attitudes. I don't think of Tennesseans as such negative people.

 

[BeardedVol]

And if A&M throws an INT instead of Dobbs, in OT, then Tennessee wins that game. And if Tennessee doesn't have the Hurd fiasco, a decimated defense, or one or two plays go another way then they don't lose the USCe or Vandy games. Point is, none of the proposed scenarios (By me or you), happened. So, to claim that the plays you picked out are less lucky than any other plays that decided those games is reaching, at best.

They still aren't even remotely the same. The win over App State ended up being solely decided by whichever team recovered the fumble. If App State recovered it they won, game over, luckily we did. Same with the Georgia game, if Georgia intercepts or breaks up the pass on the hail Mary, they win game over, luckily we did.

There were no instances of situations that are like those two, in any other game in 2016.

 

[Iam4utalways]

Sometimes I wonder about that. And to make things clear I am not happy with the results of last season either, but I also don't think that the program is in bad hands. And when it comes to matters that could be viewed as going either way regarding UT, I choose to go with a positive outlook (not blindly Optimistic), just positive.

I've got no problem with blind optimism for the future.

I think CBJ is giving his all. Right now all we can do is wait and see. I've seen his teams play with passion and focus. I want to see more of that less of the haphazard type ball we saw last year.

As long as we keep building and at some point put all the pieces together.

By some point I mean this year. 5 years is plenty of time to build most anything(not counting Government work and some union jobs).

Figure it out Butch.

 

[terrypedigo]

We are a 8 win program some don't won't and don't know that but we are a average football program and we accept that as long as we win 8 games the money will still roll in from the football program the higher up's know that and won't spent the money like bama to be elite year in and year out its all about the money not winning football games sad but true.:thud:

 

[Iam4utalways]

We are a 8 win program some don't won't and don't know that but we are a average football program and we accept that as long as we win 8 games the money will still roll in from the football program the higher up's know that and won't spent the money like bama to be elite year in and year out its all about the money not winning football games sad but true.:thud:

Some years we didn't even play 8 games.

We have a very large and loyal fan base. One accused us of being addicts.
We have to get our fix.
We enjoy our addiction.
What are we to do?

Go to the game and root the Vols to victory.

 

[VFL-82-JP]

We are a 8 win program....

I've never understood this argument. It may be true, but doesn't seem to mean anything like the way it sounds.

Sure, Tennessee has averaged about 8 wins per season over the past 80 years ... or 70 years, or 60, or 50, or 40, just about any time frame you care to choose. The two exceptions to that: if you average our wins over the past 30 years, we are technically a 9-win team (the average is just above 8.5 wins per season, so you'd round up). And if you only take the past decade, our Dark Ages, we're a 7-win per season program.

But pretty much, yeah, over any reasonable time span, we're "an 8-win program" (keeping in mind almost all of that was based on years that included 11 or fewer regular season games).

So...what?

To figure out how this all stacks up, I did some research. Picked out some of the winningest programs from across the P5 conferences: Bama, Oklahoma, USCw, and FSU. Put together a table with their wins, year by year, and how they average out over time, going back any number of years into the past. I went as far as 1947, just after the end of WW II.

Bama is a 9-win program. They averaged 11 wins over the past decade, but go any further back than that, and the average quickly drops to 9 per season, and stays that way. All the way back to World War II.

USC is an 8-win program if you go back as far as WW II ... or even just back to the late 50s (70 years). If you go less than that, they're a 9-win program.

Oklahoma is a 9-win program, going back 30 years or more.

FSU is an 8- or 9-win program, depending on your time frame.

...

I mention all this purely because Terry (or others) who say "we're an 8-win program" seem to be implying that we should expect in any given year to only win 8 games, give or take.

And that's just not how it works. No more than Bama is settling for 9 wins in any given season.

We all have up periods, and down periods, coaches who raise our average over time, and coaches who tank it.

Over the long term, the really good programs end up in the 8-9 win range, and lesser programs end up somewhere below that.

If that's all you mean by it, then I agree. If you're implying we should settle for winning 8 next year, or the year after, I'm not on board with that at all.

 

[Mike4Vols]

The upcoming season is ALL about the quarterback. If we get bad play from that position, we could lose 5 games. If we get good play, we win 8 games --- maybe 9. If our next quarterback turns out to be truly awesome, this team could win every game.

The schedule isn't that tough on paper. I think we could be remarkably better on defense with the new coaches. We have a top-tier RB, an improved OL, and some nice talent at WR.

It just comes down to the quarterback.

 

[The Artful Dodger]

They still aren't even remotely the same. The win over App State ended up being solely decided by whichever team recovered the fumble. If App State recovered it they won, game over, luckily we did. Same with the Georgia game, if Georgia intercepts or breaks up the pass on the hail Mary, they win game over, luckily we did.

There were no instances of situations that are like those two, in any other game in 2016.

According to you, and your criteria. There were multiple other single plays during that game and other games that would have rendered those plays moot or prevented them from happening altogether. If Hurd doesn't start showboating and loafing into the endzone then that is another score for the Vols and no Hail Mary is needed. Like i said, you are just getting into semantics of what you consider to be significant verse what some other fans deem significant. In the end the UGA and UF wins were no more flukey than the A&M, Vandy, and USCe losses.

 

[The Artful Dodger]

I've got no problem with blind optimism for the future.

I think CBJ is giving his all. Right now all we can do is wait and see. I've seen his teams play with passion and focus. I want to see more of that less of the haphazard type ball we saw last year.

As long as we keep building and at some point put all the pieces together.

By some point I mean this year. 5 years is plenty of time to build most anything(not counting Government work and some union jobs).

Figure it out Butch.

Blind optimism would surely be better for the health of the program, than the rampant unnecessary pessimism. I don't have a problem with people being angry about last season's results. But too many people paint everything in a negative light, when they could just as easily see the same thing positively. This type of behavior from "fans" have nothing but a negative impact on Tennessee Football.

 

[jakez4ut]

I've never understood this argument. It may be true, but doesn't seem to mean anything like the way it sounds.

Sure, Tennessee has averaged about 8 wins per season over the past 80 years ... or 70 years, or 60, or 50, or 40, just about any time frame you care to choose. The two exceptions to that: if you average our wins over the past 30 years, we are technically a 9-win team (the average is just above 8.5 wins per season, so you'd round up). And if you only take the past decade, our Dark Ages, we're a 7-win per season program.

But pretty much, yeah, over any reasonable time span, we're "an 8-win program" (keeping in mind almost all of that was based on years that included 11 or fewer regular season games).

So...what?

To figure out how this all stacks up, I did some research. Picked out one of the winningest programs from each of the other P5 conferences: Bama, Oklahoma, USCw, and FSU. Put together a table with their wins, year by year, and how they average out over time, going back any number of years into the past. I went as far as 1947, just after the end of WW II.

Bama is a 9-win program. They averaged 11 wins over the past decade, but go any further back than that, and the average quickly drops to 9 per season, and stays that way. All the way back to World War II.

USC is an 8-win program if you go back as far as WW II ... or even just back to the late 50s (70 years). If you go less than that, they're a 9-win program.

Oklahoma is a 9-win program, going back 30 years or more.

FSU is an 8- or 9-win program, depending on your time frame.

...

I mention all this purely because Terry (or others) who say "we're an 8-win program" seem to be implying that we should expect in any given year to only win 8 games, give or take.

And that's just not how it works. No more than Bama is settling for 9 wins in any given season.

We all have up periods, and down periods, coaches who raise our average over time, and coaches who tank it.

Over the long term, the really good programs end up in the 8-9 win range, and lesser programs end up somewhere below that.

If that's all you mean by it, then I agree. If you're implying we should settle for winning 8 next year, or the year after, I'm not on board with that at all.

agreed. not to mention the fact that given how our schedule usually falls, the fact that the # of games per season has changed, the post season has changed etc, etc, etc...there's just no evidence to suggest that 'what is will always be'.

additionally, the main reason we're an '8 win program' is because generally speaking ( i mean if we're going to use the entire history of the program as a benchmark, i think some generality is allowed here ) our schedule is usually going to come down to 2-3 games a year.

be it Bama/Auburn in the past, or GA/FL/Bama post 1992/divisional play, those are the teams we, generally, compare ourselves to, and compete with.

and we're not going to win all those games every year. we're not going to win most of those games all the time.

the games we do win all the time....

the other 8. so of course we're an 8 win program. but that's not the bar. the last decade aside, we generally are just better than those 8 teams, and compete with the 2-3 teams per year. and depending on how that goes determines average from potentially great/special.

so, no, the "we're an 8 win program historically" is just dumb, and certainly not a reason not to expect more, or less, given a particular season's circumstances.

 

[BeardedVol]

According to you, and your criteria. There were multiple other single plays during that game and other games that would have rendered those plays moot or prevented them from happening altogether. If Hurd doesn't start showboating and loafing into the endzone then that is another score for the Vols and no Hail Mary is needed. Like i said, you are just getting into semantics of what you consider to be significant verse what some other fans deem significant. In the end the UGA and UF wins were no more flukey than the A&M, Vandy, and USCe losses.

You might as well argue that a cheeseburger with tomato on it is the same as a pepperoni pizza because both are made with bread, meat, cheese and tomato.

You made the statement that we could have just as easily gone 11-1 as 6-6. The outcome of two plays in two different games was the difference in 8-4 and 6-6. For us to have gone 11-1 it would have taken literally dozens and dozens of plays to have different outcomes. Your statement is demonstrably false.