Recruiting Forum Football Talk XXIX

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#7,851
#7,851
Start of the season:

Bama has a better roster than us.

That is it.

A&M and maybe LSU are even with us (which I think our roster is better before injuries).

10-2 was THE expectation. Anything else is underachieving. Period.
 
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#7,853
#7,853
theutvolunteers said:
Was there something confusing about the word track? Maybe I'm missing it due to lack of sleep with a newborn.
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No, I mean I don't track other conferences like I do the SEC, but I have the numbers and spot check when people start making wild statements about how team/coach X are over performing (they usually aren't).

I have a 2 year old and a 1 month old. I feel you.
 
#7,855
#7,855
BigZiti09 said:
Yes. Just look at the rankings. It's not even close.

Sure Mark Richt underachieved yearly but that's not talent, that's coaching.

Georgia has more talent on their roster.
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Rofl. You're going to need more than recruiting services rankings. By your logic, Barnett is nowhere close to the best DE in the country because he was a 4*. Cam isn't even in the top 50 CB. JRM isnt either at his position.

We have more talent than UGA at every posotion except qb, maybe OL (debatable), and RB is a push.
 
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#7,858
#7,858
jave36 said:
Rofl. You're going to need more than recruiting services rankings. By your logic, Barnett is nowhere close to the best DE in the country because he was a 4*. Cam isn't even in the top 50 CB. JRM isnt either at his position.

We have more talent than UGA at every posotion except qb, maybe OL (debatable), and RB is a push.
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It evens out. We have some busts who don't contribute. Other teams have the same thing going on.

If you believe we are so much better, maybe you should give more credit to the coaches who developed them.
 
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#7,859
#7,859
daj2576 said:
Lol. Vegas knows how predictable games are that's why most are bet on a spread, not straight up. And no, even at 70% these won't get you beating Vegas enough to make money. That isn't to say that I don't work around those who do more advanced evals that do make money, but even those use something like what I am showing you as a starting off point.
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It would take time, and/or a ton of volume, especially with betting the ML, but 55 percent is considered good, so 70 would make you money.
 
#7,861
#7,861
BigZiti09 said:
It evens out. We have some busts who don't contribute. Other teams have the same thing going on.

If you believe we are so much better, maybe you should give more credit to the coaches who developed them.
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I have given them credit where applicable. It doesn't even out. If you go position by position, our talent was superior.
 
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#7,862
#7,862
BigZiti09 said:
We have like 4 impact player seniors. JRM, Cam, Dobbs and Vereen.

Experience on this team was overrated as well.
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Only seniors can be experienced? Remember all those freshman and sophomores that started and played so much in '14 and '15 seasons?
 
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#7,863
#7,863
daj2576 said:
To me the problem is that the same people who were over-valuing the team pre-season (10-2 or better was never a likely outcome based on comparative talent) are the same people who are relying on their incorrect base assumption to support their current despondency.

From where I sit, an objective talent analysis predicted a 9-3 season as being the most likely record for this team, with 10-2 or 8-4 both being significantly less likely than 9-3 but still plausible with good/bad luck, and anything outside of that being highly unlikely.

In essence both the hype and anti hype are unsupportable positions.

That said, SCAR should have been a W, but UGA should have been a L given these evaluations. That's a wash, and 9-3 is still on the table.

Here is the SEC, to date, showing a talent prediction rate in the 2/3 neighborhood on a game by game basis, and seasonal predictions whereby 12 of 14 teams are performing within a game of said predictions. Talent is a solid predictor.

View attachment 122881
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ESPN's FPI offers a different perspective. Preseason, it predicted UT at 11-1 and an overwhelming favorite to win the SECE. The win percentages dropped once the season started, but the FPI kept UT at 11-1 until post-UGA, when it dropped UT to 10-2, a slight underdog to aTm (basically a push with HFA for aTm). The win % vs Bama kept steadily decreasing throughout the season, so most fans were prepared for a loss to Bama. At 10-2, the FPI still predicted UT to win the SECE, with UF a distant second and UK in third position, with a 1% chance.

The gameweek FPI for UT @SCAR was still something like 86%. Then UT went rogue.

What's most predictable going forward is that expectations of going to ATL are not likely to be met and fans are not going to be happy.
 
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#7,864
#7,864
I like how daj brings in not just numbers but ACTUAL RESULTS, and yet people are still arguing based on apparently nothing but their opinions.

I mean at least pretend you're trying and post a fantasy league spreadsheet or something.
 
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#7,865
#7,865
BigZiti09 said:
You aren't living in reality. I'm bowing out of this one.
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Please.

On what planet is UGA more talented than us? I mean if they're more talented, then Kirby should be fired right now because they're playing terrible week to week. The only game they played well was against us.

A number of juniors are 2 and 3 year starters. Our experience isn't even close to overrated like you said in the other post.

I can agree to an extent the depth may have been overrated.

The argument was about the 10-2 expectation. It was the correct expectation.

This season we will underachieve. It doesn't mean we can't have a nice year.
 
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#7,867
#7,867
orangefreak21 said:
Can see it coming from a mile away.

People trying to spin "what-if" and how would u feel ab it after this happens?

Lmao. S.Carolina is terrible. We had two weeks to prepare for a terrible team and still lost.
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While there is a little bit of "what-iffing" going on, I haven't seen anyone say South Carolina was anything but a bad loss. If anything, you've got people hoping there is some way the team can make up for it with anyone who tries admitting it's a very long shot at best.
 
#7,875
#7,875
jave36 said:
UGA has more talent than us? Going into the season? We are better at every position except qb.
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Depth, it's all about depth. UGA has 15 years of Richt recruiting in or around the top 10. Fulmer, Kiffin, and Dooley left our cupboards bare. Butch has done a pretty good job recruiting talent, but has not been able to build sustained depth, especially at OL, DT and LB.
 
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