How Bad is Bad?

#1
VFL-82-JP

VFL-82-JP

Bleedin' Orange...
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#1
How stratified are the Power 5 ... the Group of 5 ... and the FCS, really?

This question will never be answered. Partly because it's impossible to measure, realistically speaking. Can't have every team play ever other team in college football 2 or 3 times, to allow truth to overcome quirks and "sort it out on the field." Partly because crap keeps changing. Team might be the 40th-best in the country one week, and the 65th-best a couple of weeks later with one or two key injuries.

So, just as a think piece, imagine that the Power 5 conferences dumped their cellar-dwellers...and that all those dumped teams formed their own league.

This is still Power 5 football, just reorganized.

Here's how the new conference looks:

Vandy
Kentucky
Boston College
Wake Forest
Virginia
Kansas
Iowa State
Rutgers
Illinois
Maryland
Indiana
Minnesota
Colorado
Oregon State

So who is the new Big Fish in this new Little Pond? What teams come out on top?

And does that tell us anything about the SEC versus the B12 versus the PAC? Or about the Power 5 versus the Group of 5? Could Conference USA beat up on this new conference regularly?
 
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#3
#3
This is an interesting post.

VT and Kenticky would most liekly be the top of that conference.
 
#5
#5
I would say that Oregon State is easily the best and most consistent team out of that group. Being said, yes, I also think C-USA would give that conference a good match.

Call it the Lil'-14.
 
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#6
#6
BigOrangeLoyalist said:
I would say that Oregon State is easily the best and most consistent team out of that group. Being said, yes, I also think C-USA would give that conference a good match.

Call it the Lil'-14.
Click to expand...

Oregon State's trend line is a mirror version of Tennessee's. Four years ago, they were a 9-win team. Three years ago, 7 wins. In 2014, 5 wins. This past season, only 2 wins.

They used to be arguably one of the best and most consistent teams in the 'Lil 14 (like that name!). Don't think they are today.
 
#7
#7
Also .. I'd think that if those teams from Power 5 conferences joined to create the Lil'-14, there would still only be five Power 5 conferences.. lol.
 
#10
#10
Here's the 'Lil 14 reorganized by their 2015 win/loss record. Don't let the existence of a couple of B10 teams at the top of the list fool you; they're only "the best of the Lil 14" because I included so many B10 teams...when they play each other, someone has to win; that's what they did in the B10 to get to 6-7.

  • Indiana (6-7)
  • Minnesota (6-7)
  • Kentucky (5-7)
  • Illinois (5-7)
  • Vandy (4-8)
  • Virginia (4-8)
  • Rutgers (4-8)
  • Colorado (4-9)
  • Boston College (3-9)
  • Wake Forest (3-9)
  • Iowa State (3-9)
  • Maryland (3-9)
  • Oregon State (2-10)
  • Kansas (0-12)

In similar fashion, assuming an 8-game conference schedule, and some cupcake FCS/Group of 5 opponents, a few of these teams are going to end the season 9-3, 10-2 or even 11-1. If they're 11-1, they'll probably beat out a 2-loss SEC team for a spot in the playoffs. :ermm:

[keeping in mind this is all fictional, just a think-piece]
 
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#11
#11
If you could find a way to take the champion of the step child conference, and squeeze them into a playoff game, if ever one of those teams did a football version of "Hoosiers", they'd still have a crack at a trophy. Actually a better crack because they wouldn't be beaten up so bad.

Having said that, resentment of the teams that are good and better but got beaten up anyway because of a ridiculously hard schedule and are on the outside looking in.

Interesting conversation. Will never happen.
 
#12
#12
VFL-82-JP said:
How stratified are the Power 5 ... the Group of 5 ... and the FCS, really?

This question will never be answered. Partly because it's impossible to measure, realistically speaking. Can't have every team play ever other team in college football 2 or 3 times, to allow truth to overcome quirks and "sort it out on the field." Partly because crap keeps changing. Team might be the 40th-best in the country one week, and the 65th-best a couple of weeks later with one or two key injuries.

So, just as a think piece, imagine that the Power 5 conferences dumped their cellar-dwellers...and that all those dumped teams formed their own league.

This is still Power 5 football, just reorganized.

Here's how the new conference looks:

Vandy
Kentucky
Boston College
Wake Forest
Virginia
Kansas
Iowa State
Rutgers
Illinois
Maryland
Indiana
Minnesota
Colorado
Oregon State

So who is the new Big Fish in this new Little Pond? What teams come out on top?

And does that tell us anything about the SEC versus the B12 versus the PAC? Or about the Power 5 versus the Group of 5? Could Conference USA beat up on this new conference regularly?
Click to expand...

Those programs are DI programs beating them scores more SOS points than victories over DII programs. The cream puffs do serve a purpose. :question:
 
#13
#13
If you were to reorganize the "lowliest of the low," based on all-time records rather than current/recent standards, Northwestern and Kansas State would reside in the barnacle-bottom basement. Here are the pinnacles of ineptitude when it comes to losing streaks among FBS schools:

Northwestern: 34 games (1979-1982)
Virginia: 28 (1958-1961)
Kansas State: 28 (1945-1948)
New Mexico State: 27 (1988-1990)
Eastern Michigan: 27 (1980-1982)
Colorado State: 26 (1960-1963)
Duke: 23 (1999-2002)
Northern Illinois: 23 (1996-1998)
Duke: 22 (2005-2007)
Ball State: 21 (1999-2000)
South Carolina: (1998-2000)
Kent State: 21 (1981-1983)
New Mexico: 21 (1967-1969)
Temple: 20 (2004-2006)
TCU: 20 (1974-1975)
Florida State: 20 (1972-1974) Longest Losing Streaks in College Football History
 
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#15
#15
Volosaurus rex said:
If you were to reorganize the "lowliest of the low," based on all-time records rather than current/recent standards, Northwestern and Kansas State would reside in the barnacle-bottom basement. Here are the pinnacles of ineptitude when it comes to losing streaks among FBS schools:
Click to expand...

Close. Those two teams are 3rd and 4th worst, heh.

Here's every Power 5 team with a lifetime win percentage below .500:

---TEAM (W-L-T) (win %) (current Conference)---
Vanderbilt (589-599-50) (.496) (SEC)
Kentucky (592-606-44) (.494) (SEC)
Mississippi State (540-562-39) (.490) (SEC)
Kansas (579-610-58) (.488) (B12)
Washington State (518-546-45) (.487) (PAC)
Oregon State (525-574-50) (.479) (PAC)
Iowa State (513-630-46) (.451) (B12)
Kansas State (509-630-42) (.449) (B12)
Northwestern (518-652-44) (.445) (B10)
Indiana (468-658-44) (.419) (B10)
Wake Forest (435-642-33) (.407) (ACC)


Worst in all of FBS? Georgia State of the Sun Belt, with a lifetime 24.3% win rate.
 
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#16
#16
VFL-82-JP said:
Here's the 'Lil 14 reorganized by their 2015 win/loss record. Don't let the existence of a couple of B10 teams at the top of the list fool you; they're only "the best of the Lil 14" because I included so many B10 teams...when they play each other, someone has to win; that's what they did in the B10 to get to 6-7.

  • Indiana (6-7)
  • Minnesota (6-7)
  • Kentucky (5-7)
  • Illinois (5-7)
  • Vandy (4-8)
  • Virginia (4-8)
  • Rutgers (4-8)
  • Colorado (4-9)
  • Boston College (3-9)
  • Wake Forest (3-9)
  • Iowa State (3-9)
  • Maryland (3-9)
  • Oregon State (2-10)
  • Kansas (0-12)

In similar fashion, assuming an 8-game conference schedule, and some cupcake FCS/Group of 5 opponents, a few of these teams are going to end the season 9-3, 10-2 or even 11-1. If they're 11-1, they'll probably beat out a 2-loss SEC team for a spot in the playoffs. :ermm:

[keeping in mind this is all fictional, just a think-piece]
Click to expand...

Living in Indiana, I must ask where (2-10) Purdue is on this list.
 
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#17
#17
mrmax86 said:
Living in Indiana, I must ask where (2-10) Purdue is on this list.
Click to expand...

Heh, Max, I considered Purdue, I truly did. But they got the benefit of the doubt thanks to their Drew Brees / Joe Tiller era. There was a period of several years there when they were a player.
 
#18
#18
VFL-82-JP said:
Close. Those two teams are 3rd and 4th worst, heh.

Here's every Power 5 team with a lifetime win percentage below .500:

---TEAM (W-L-T) (win %) (current Conference)---
Vanderbilt (589-599-50) (.496) (SEC)
Kentucky (592-606-44) (.494) (SEC)
Mississippi State (540-562-39) (.490) (SEC)
Kansas (579-610-58) (.488) (B12)
Washington State (518-546-45) (.487) (PAC)
Oregon State (525-574-50) (.479) (PAC)
Iowa State (513-630-46) (.451) (B12)
Kansas State (509-630-42) (.449) (B12)
Northwestern (518-652-44) (.445) (B10)
Indiana (468-658-44) (.419) (B10)
Wake Forest (435-642-33) (.407) (ACC)


Worst in all of FBS? Georgia State of the Sun Belt, with a lifetime 24.3% win rate.
Click to expand...

Georgia State is far too recent to count. They joined "I-A provisionally in 2013 [and were] I-AA Colonial Athletic Association prior [to that.]"

Vandy is ranked that high only because of McGugin's tenure (1904-1917, 1919-1934), during which the Commodes truly were a regional power. From 1935-present, they rank 108th in winning pct. (.38676), with a record for that period of 321-516-24 ( I-A Winning Percentage 1935-2015). If we were ranking the lowliest of the low strictly for the last 81 years, I would have them 3rd from the bottom.
 
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#20
#20
Volosaurus rex said:
Georgia State is far too recent to count. They joined "I-A provisionally in 2013 [and were] I-AA Colonial Athletic Association prior [to that.]"

Vandy is ranked that high only because of McGugin's tenure (1904-1917, 1919-1934), during which the Commodes truly were a regional power. From 1935-present, they rank 108th in winning pct. (.38676), with a record for that period of 321-516-24 ( I-A Winning Percentage 1935-2015). If we were ranking the lowliest of the low strictly for the last 81 years, I would have them 3rd from the bottom.
Click to expand...

I get what you're saying about Vandy, Rex, and will not argue. :)

As for Georgia State, that's even worse. They got their 24.3% lifetime winning average while playing most of their games against fellow FCS teams. At least most of the teams above them in the list got many/most of their losses from FBS schools.
 
#21
#21
TrueOrange said:
At this point, Minnesota and Indiana feel like they should probably get the nod over UK.
Click to expand...

I'd guess that Minnesota, Kentucky, Virginia, and maybe Vandy (maybe) would make the upper tier of the Lil 14. Not sold on Indiana, even though (because?) I went to school there. That's a 100% basketball school, even more than Kentucky. Football is the afterthought of an afterthought (behind B-Ball and a bicycle race they call the Little 500).
 
#22
#22
VFL-82-JP said:
How stratified are the Power 5 ... the Group of 5 ... and the FCS, really?

This question will never be answered. Partly because it's impossible to measure, realistically speaking. Can't have every team play ever other team in college football 2 or 3 times, to allow truth to overcome quirks and "sort it out on the field." Partly because crap keeps changing. Team might be the 40th-best in the country one week, and the 65th-best a couple of weeks later with one or two key injuries.

So, just as a think piece, imagine that the Power 5 conferences dumped their cellar-dwellers...and that all those dumped teams formed their own league.

This is still Power 5 football, just reorganized.

Here's how the new conference looks:

Vandy
Kentucky
Boston College
Wake Forest
Virginia
Kansas
Iowa State
Rutgers
Illinois
Maryland
Indiana
Minnesota
Colorado
Oregon State

So who is the new Big Fish in this new Little Pond? What teams come out on top?

And does that tell us anything about the SEC versus the B12 versus the PAC? Or about the Power 5 versus the Group of 5? Could Conference USA beat up on this new conference regularly?
Click to expand...

If we're talking about as of currently, I'd have to think Indiana/Minnesota as your 1 and 2 in that conference, possibly followed by someone like UK.

And your bottom of the conference would be Kansas, with say Wake Forest right above the Jayhawks.
 
#23
#23
VFL-82-JP said:
I'd guess that Minnesota, Kentucky, Virginia, and maybe Vandy (maybe) would make the upper tier of the Lil 14. Not sold on Indiana, even though (because?) I went to school there. That's a 100% basketball school, even more than Kentucky. Football is the afterthought of an afterthought (behind B-Ball and a bicycle race they call the Little 500).
Click to expand...

I'm aware of the school's nature, historically. My sister goes there, so my family follows them as almost a let's say secondary team. I meant more in the immediate, though, not the longer run.

I'm not sure if the point of this thread is who would win/do well in this conference in the next 2-3 years or how would such a conference shake out decades from now.
 
#24
#24
For hardcore, short-term ineptitude in the SEC, Alabama deserves serious consideration. Consider their record for 1954-1957: 8-29-4. 17 consecutive losses (from 11/13/54-10/20/56), 19 consecutive games without a victory (10/30/54-10/20/56). Included within that streak of infamy were back-to-back losses to the Commodes (21-6 and 32-7) and Tennessee (20-0 and 24-0). During that 19-game span, Alabama was shut out NINE times. For all of the great teams that Alabama has fielded over the years, let us raise our glasses to the perfect record of the 1955 Crimson Tide, a squad that went 0-10-0 and scored only 48 points all year. A job well done. Alabama Historical Scores


For fellow Tennessee fans, as you can see, it actually can get worse than the Dooley era.
 
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