The real problem with the pass game is PLAYCALLING

[Dobbs 4 Heisman]

I don't understand the desire to throw more on 1st with stats like that (I doubt even a former qb would either). With our backfield it's the way our offense will run. It's our identity

If you throw more on first down you increase the likelihood for more explosive plays. Especially off playaction.

Everyone keeps talking about the lack of big plays from the passing game last year. Well it's kinda hard to throw the ball deep on a defense if they know it's coming.

Since most of our pass attempts came on 2nd and 9 or 3rd and 5, the defense knows we're passing. That means they ain't falling for play action. That means lack of big plays through the air.

If we want more explosive plays from the passing game, we need to throw on 1st and 10 when the defense thinks we're going to run.

 

[utvolpj]

If you throw more on first down you increase the likelihood for more explosive plays. Especially off playaction.

Playaction on 2nd and 4 isn't more effective?

No coach who wishes to remain employed is going to replace a scheme that picks up 6yds on first down with one that asks an average passer to equal that mark

Our personnel dictates that UT is a running team

 

[jakez4ut]

If you throw more on first down you increase the likelihood for more explosive plays. Especially off playaction.

Everyone keeps talking about the lack of big plays from the passing game last year. Well it's kinda hard to throw the ball deep on a defense if they know it's coming.

Since most of our pass attempts came on 2nd and 9 or 3rd and 5, the defense knows we're passing. That means they ain't falling for play action. That means lack of big plays through the air.

If we want more explosive plays from the passing game, we need to throw on 1st and 10 when the defense thinks we're going to run.

i think you just answered your own question....we were a run first offense because it worked.

the concern you should have is that we didn't complete more passes on 2nd down as a result of play action.

it's actually more of an indictment on Dobbs (a small one, he is good, i do like him) that we couldn't do more in the passing game because of the play action opportunities our RUNNING GAME provided.

D4H, bottom line on all this is that you just have to get your head around the fact that the passing game was not very good, and that, yes, Dobbs is a part of that equation. and he, along with several other factors of the passing game, need to get better.

 

[bigdaddy]

I don't want more explosive passing plays or need them if we are avg 6 yards running on first down. Dobbs is ok at passing and that's how it is. It's not play calling or o line play. The kid isn't that accurate at deep balls.

 

[Dobbs 4 Heisman]

Because UT has one of the most talented backfields in the country to compliment Dobbs style of game. So why wouldn't you run it on 1st down?

So you want UT to stop running the ball and throw more because you feel like it's holding Dobb's back in the stats game?

No. I'm saying mix it up more. Last year we ran the ball 316 times on 1st down compared to 114 pass attempts. That's 73% run to 27% pass on 1st down.

How bout we go 55% run to 45% pass on 1st down?

Become a little more balanced. Who knows it might open up the run game even more if every team doesn't know that we're going to run it on 1st down almost 3 out of every 4 times.

 

[Dobbs 4 Heisman]

You're fitting numbers into a conclusion that may not necessarily be accurate. We are a down and distance team and because of this rarely see 3rd and really long. Don't expect that to change and I for one don't want it to given our running game. I appreciate the effort digging up this data but without examining our completion % on 3rd and long v 3rd and not so long you may not be getting the complete picture. IE if we are 3rd and 4 the defense really can't sell out on pass.

This is really an incomplete thought and I obviously haven't dug up the data.

I actually did just a few posts later. Dobbs converted more 3rd and longs (7-9 yards to go) than any other QB in the SEC.

Nationally he tied for 5th in the nation at converting 3rd and 7-9. cfbstats.com - 2015 National Player Leaders

 

[jakez4ut]

No. I'm saying mix it up more. Last year we ran the 316 times on 1st down compared to 114 pass attempts. That's 73% run to 27% pass on 1st down.

How bout we go 55% run to 45% pass on 1st down?

Become a little more balanced. Who knows it might open up the run game even more if every team doesn't know that we're going to run it on 1st down almost 3 out of every 4 times.

i'm pretty sure they did as the year went on. i'm not going to track it, but i'd say the balance started to show itself the latter half of the schedule.

that front part, the defenses we were facing....that dictated a lot of what we wanted to do....and to avoid(turnovers).

 

[Dobbs 4 Heisman]

You keep saying that the coaches were shackling Dobbs and not opening things up enough for him to succeed.

You also keep attributing almost all of our passing struggles to the OL's poor pass blocking and poor job by the WRs.

Maybe, just maybe, the struggles of the OL, WR, and Dobbs himself to get on the same page had something to do with the coaches saying "let's keep it on the ground with Hurd/Kamara/Dobbs as much as possible and play to our strengths as much as possible."

If Dobbs had shown he could sling it around accurately, the OL had shown they can keep him upright doing it, and the WRs had shown they could be depended on to not waste a down when the other 2/3 of he play were clicking, I'm sure they'd have done it more.

Then you have more faith in Butch Jones than I do.

Coming from a guy who showed such in game ineptitude against Florida last year, I wouldn't trust him to know how to put our players in the best position to succeed.

Much like Jancek shackled our defense on 3rd and longs by using a spy, Butch has shackled the offense by not letting Josh rip it more on 1st down.

 

[volroadwarrior]

Just look at these stats.

First Down - cfbstats.com - 2015 Southeastern Conference Team Leaders

- 1st down pass attempts: 12th in the SEC

- 1st down completion %: 9th in the SEC

- 1st down passer rating: 12th in the SEC

Second Down - cfbstats.com - 2015 Southeastern Conference Team Leaders

- 2nd down pass attempts: 5th in the SEC

- 2nd down completion %: 6th in the SEC

- 2nd down passer rating: 6th in the SEC

Third Down - cfbstats.com - 2015 Southeastern Conference Team Leaders

- 3rd down pass attempts: 3rd in the SEC

- 3rd down completion %: 4th in the SEC

- 3rd down passer rating: 4th in the SEC

If our QB is the problem in the pass game, why do our passing stats go up the more times we attempt to pass as well as the tougher the passing down gets?

Individually on 3rd down, Dobbs was far and away the best QB in the SEC. He converted more 3rd downs than any QB in the SEC. Plus he finished tied for 16th overall in the country. Here are the numbers: cfbstats.com - 2015 National Player Leaders

See the guy he's tied with? None other than everyone's heisman favorite for 2016.....Deshaun Watson. In 2 less games, Dobbs converted the same 48 first downs through the air as Watson. He completed a higher percentage of his 3rd down passes (55.4% vs. 52.6%). And he also threw 2 less interceptions (2 vs. 4) while Watson threw 3 more TDs (9 vs. 6).

All this is to say that the numbers show Dobbs isn't the problem with the pass game. On the toughest down to throw the ball (3rd down) he throws it with the best of the them. Our pass game really only struggled on 1st down. And mainly because we don't attempt that many passes.

Usually 1st down passes are the easiest to throw because they are the least likely to be anticipated by the defense. Its where a lot of the prolific passing teams like Ole Miss did their damage last year.

Josh Dobbs can be the best QB in the country. Its time for our coaches to stop shackling him on 1st down.

This is trying to rationalize and make excuses to fit your agenda. Just say Dobbs is a great QB, a winner, exceptional runner and a good leader. But, he consistently throws behind and overthrows receivers down field. Some may be caused by bad route running or the inablility to get separation, but it is what it is. If he can make the necessary adjustments he is capable of leading us to a NC. No doubt.

 

[Dobbs 4 Heisman]

You haven't presented anything that really makes the statement false. A pass play of 9yds does not necessarily mean a pass of 9yds. The stats you're using don't answer the question

Well then rewatch the games like I do. The South Carolina and Kentucky games where we converted an incredible amount of 3rd downs is on YouTube. Rewatch them and see the beautiful passes Dobbs throws down the field on 3rd down.

 

[Volfan76]

Your own stats make your point invalid. Dobb's passer rating on first and second down are the reason he doesn't pass more on first and second down.

 

[utvolpj]

Well then rewatch the games like I do. The South Carolina and Kentucky games where we converted an incredible amount of 3rd downs is on YouTube. Rewatch them and see the beautiful passes Dobbs throws down the field on 3rd down.

Honestly, what a player does against a crap team like USCjr or UK is of little consequence.

 

[Dobbs 4 Heisman]

He's right those little flare passes to Kamara, when he had a running start, went for 5-10 yards almost every time.

So you're saying we converted 34 3rd downs between 4-9 yards off screen passes? Really?

Thank God for cfbstats.com so I can continue to bury these BS arguments.

Here are Alvin Kamara's receiving stats on 3rd and 4-9 yards: cfbstats.com - Alvin Kamara 2015 Player Statistics - Tennessee Volunteers

Alvin Kamara had a grand total of 4 receptions on 3rd and 4-9 that resulted in 4 1st downs.

4 out of 34 3rd down convertions between 4-9 yards came off screen passes to Kamara.

Just because I knew this would come up, I also looked up Jalen Hurd. And we converted 7 first downs to him on 3rd and 4-9.

So there you have it. A grand total of 11 of the 34 completions for 1st down on 3rd and 4-9 came on passes to the RBs.

And FYI, all these RB passes are not necessarily screens. Remember in the Georgia game we motioned Kamara a couple of times to the outside and threw out routes to him. So these 11 passes to RBs are not all techinically screen passes.

 

[orangeluvr]

Just look at these stats.

First Down - cfbstats.com - 2015 Southeastern Conference Team Leaders

- 1st down pass attempts: 12th in the SEC

- 1st down completion %: 9th in the SEC

- 1st down passer rating: 12th in the SEC

Second Down - cfbstats.com - 2015 Southeastern Conference Team Leaders

- 2nd down pass attempts: 5th in the SEC

- 2nd down completion %: 6th in the SEC

- 2nd down passer rating: 6th in the SEC

Third Down - cfbstats.com - 2015 Southeastern Conference Team Leaders

- 3rd down pass attempts: 3rd in the SEC

- 3rd down completion %: 4th in the SEC

- 3rd down passer rating: 4th in the SEC

If our QB is the problem in the pass game, why do our passing stats go up the more times we attempt to pass as well as the tougher the passing down gets?

Individually on 3rd down, Dobbs was far and away the best QB in the SEC. He converted more 3rd downs than any QB in the SEC. Plus he finished tied for 16th overall in the country. Here are the numbers: cfbstats.com - 2015 National Player Leaders

See the guy he's tied with? None other than everyone's heisman favorite for 2016.....Deshaun Watson. In 2 less games, Dobbs converted the same 48 first downs through the air as Watson. He completed a higher percentage of his 3rd down passes (55.4% vs. 52.6%). And he also threw 2 less interceptions (2 vs. 4) while Watson threw 3 more TDs (9 vs. 6).

All this is to say that the numbers show Dobbs isn't the problem with the pass game. On the toughest down to throw the ball (3rd down) he throws it with the best of the them. Our pass game really only struggled on 1st down. And mainly because we don't attempt that many passes.

Usually 1st down passes are the easiest to throw because they are the least likely to be anticipated by the defense. Its where a lot of the prolific passing teams like Ole Miss did their damage last year.

Josh Dobbs can be the best QB in the country. Its time for our coaches to stop shackling him on 1st down.

nice work D4 ! :salute:

 

[Dobbs 4 Heisman]

Playaction on 2nd and 4 isn't more effective?

No coach who wishes to remain employed is going to replace a scheme that picks up 6yds on first down with one that asks an average passer to equal that mark

Our personnel dictates that UT is a running team

These 3rd down stats show Dobbs is no average passer. He's an extremely talented passer who has the potential to be a lot more productive if the coaches let him.

 

[jakez4ut]

These 3rd down stats show Dobbs is no average passer. He's an extremely talented passer who has the potential to be a lot more productive if the coaches let him.

:good!: now you can stop.

 

[BeecherVol]

Well then rewatch the games like I do. The South Carolina and Kentucky games where we converted an incredible amount of 3rd downs is on YouTube. Rewatch them and see the beautiful passes Dobbs throws down the field on 3rd down.

SC and KY?

Did either actually field a defense last year?

 

[utvolpj]

These 3rd down stats show Dobbs is no average passer. He's an extremely talented passer who has the potential to be a lot more productive if the coaches let him.

Again, they do not show that we should replace an extremely effective running game with a shaky passing attack. The numbers simply don't bear it out. They certainly don't back your assertion of him being "an extremely talented passer". You should learn to enjoy his game for the things he does well rather than trying to heap praise on a facet that's not really a strong suit

 

[Dobbs 4 Heisman]

Your own stats make your point invalid. Dobb's passer rating on first and second down are the reason he doesn't pass more on first and second down.

The key stat to look at is pass attempts. The more times we pass, the higher Dobbs completion percentage gets versus his peers.

For example, we're 12th in pass attempts on 1st down and only 9th in competition % on first 1st down. On 2nd down we're 6th in pass attempts and 6th in completion %. And finally on 3rd down, we're 3rd in pass attempts and 4th in completion %.

The trend line is pretty clear. Dobbs gets more accurate the more passes he throws. I've always said Josh is a rhythm passer. Remember how bad he looked to start the Georgia game? Then by the 2nd half he found a rhythm and then went on to have one of the best games in the SEC last year.

Let Josh throw the ball more and he gets more accurate. That's what the numbers say.

 

[Dobbs 4 Heisman]

Honestly, what a player does against a crap team like USCjr or UK is of little consequence.

That's the equivalent of most competition outside the SEC.

 

[08Vol]

Our offense is built on misdirection. We've seen it grind to a halt when the D knows what to expect. Last drive of the Bama game, they knew we didn't have enough time to run so they ignored the threat of the QB run and blitzed. Last drive against OU (regulation), UGA, and UF (before they scored) they knew we cared more about the clock running than the 1st down. They loaded the box and we didn't even attempt a pass.

One of the funny times where Butch's abandon of misdirection and conservative play calling worked out was the last TD against UF. 3rd and long where a TD and 2 gives you a 2 possession lead. UF knows we need to go for it and calls a pass D. Little did they know Butch was playing for the field goal and called a run up the middle. Hurd went beast mode and scored instead of getting a few yards like Butch thought.

 

[jakez4ut]

The key stat to look at is pass attempts. The more times we pass, the higher Dobbs completion percentage gets versus his peers.

For example, we're 12th in pass attempts on 1st down and only 9th in competition % on first 1st down. On 2nd down we're 6th in pass attempts and 6th in completion %. And finally on 3rd down, we're 3rd in pass attempts and 4th in completion %.

The trend line is pretty clear. Dobbs gets more accurate the more passes he throws. I've always said Josh is a rhythm passer. Remember how bad he looked to start the Georgia game? Then by the 2nd half he found a rhythm and then went on to have one of the best games in the SEC last year.

Let Josh throw the ball more and he gets more accurate. That's what the numbers say.

no....not all the numbers. just the ones you want to look at.

go look up the rushing stats, and then make your statement.

 

[Dobbs 4 Heisman]

SC and KY?

Did either actually field a defense last year?

Did we actually field WRs last year?

I agree the pass game was not great against the elite teams. But I think that was mainly because our receivers couldn't separate and our o-line couldn't pass protect against great defenses like Florida, Oklahoma, and Alabama.

Defenses like South Carolina and Kentucky are more on the level of guys like Von Pearson and Kyler Kerbyson. Two guys who couldn't even get training camp invites from an NFL club.

 

[papatomany]

Ainge talked about this a few weeks ago on RTI radio. One of his key points was that we also averaged 6 yards a run on first down. Hard to argue for passing more if you do that with consistency.

Actually, according to cfbstats.com it was 5.04; fourth in the conference and .02 ahead of Mississippi. (With a little less predictability it COULD have been 6, though.) And since D4H did the Deshaun Watson comparison: that put us 43rd in the country compared to 18th for Clemson who averaged 5.61 on first.

 

[Vol_is_Lyfe18]

That's the equivalent of most competition outside the SEC.

There are plenty of teams outside the SEC that are much better than UK or USCe