2016 Election

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#3,102
#3,102
Obsessed said:
So he's polling higher than normal?

Sorry. These are things I don't normally bother with. I vote based on who I like. Never cared for the numbers. But this "Trump" stuff has me intrigued.
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There are only two polls that have been entirely conducted after he made that proposal last week, and they put him at 41 and 38. For reference, Cruz is in 2nd place at about 15-17%. Before that, Trump was hovering at about 30%. These two polls could either be overestimates or indicative that what he said really resonated with the base.

Either way, it's a "yuge" lead in a double digit field of candidates.
 
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#3,103
#3,103
UTCVol said:
There are only two polls that have been entirely conducted after he made that proposal last week, and they put him at 41 and 38. For reference, Cruz is in 2nd place at about 15-17%. Before that, Trump was hovering at about 30%. These two polls could either be overestimates or indicative that what he said really resonated with the base.

Either way, it's a "yuge" lead in a double digit field of candidates.
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Thank you.
 
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#3,106
#3,106
carlos86 said:
Is this a poll of registered voters???
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Monmouth University Poll.
Trump led the poll with 41% among Republican and Republican-leaning voters. Far behind were Cruz (14%), Marco Rubio (10%) and Ben Carson (9%). All other GOP candidates polled below 5%.
 
#3,107
#3,107
Gramps said:
Monmouth University Poll.
Trump led the poll with 41% among Republican and Republican-leaning voters. Far behind were Cruz (14%), Marco Rubio (10%) and Ben Carson (9%). All other GOP candidates polled below 5%.
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This poll drives me nuts.
Voters who say they are very conservative would vote for Trump over Cruz 41-18 WTF.

I'm not a Cruz fan but you can't call yourself a conservative and vote for a person would believes in socialized health care, that the government should bailout the insurance company, and the government has the right to take your land if they want to. If Trump is conservative then I'm Shaun King.


http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/32212254770/32212254991/32212254992/32212254994/32212254995/30064771087/af4c5edf-9cef-47bb-8440-a702be832156.pdf
 
#3,108
#3,108
carlos86 said:
This poll drives me nuts.
Voters who say they are very conservative would vote for Trump over Cruz 41-18 WTF.

I'm not a Cruz fan but you can't call yourself a conservative and vote for a person would believes in socialized health care, that the government should bailout the insurance company, and the government has the right to take your land if they want to. If Trump is conservative then I'm Shaun King.


http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/32212254770/32212254991/32212254992/32212254994/32212254995/30064771087/af4c5edf-9cef-47bb-8440-a702be832156.pdf
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It makes you wonder if they were ever really conservative, or if they just held those positions for the sake of being contrarian to the left. Clearly purging the country of millions of brown people is a nobler goal than small government.
 
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#3,109
#3,109
UTCVol said:
It makes you wonder if they were ever really conservative, or if they just held those positions for the sake of being contrarian to the left. Clearly purging the country of millions of brown people is a nobler goal than small government.
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If you want someone to make a viable case for Conservatism to America Trump just isn't the guy.
 
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#3,110
#3,110
I have a feeling that if Trump gets to the convention ahead, but with less than 50% of the delegates, that the lesser candidates pool their 3%, 8%, whatever behind one establishment candidate against Trump on a second ballot.
I think then that Trump releases his delegates to Cruz to get a majority, and then decides whether or not to run 3rd party. Just my opinion. This is the way that the parties used to select a candidate.
 
#3,111
#3,111
1972 Grad said:
I have a feeling that if Trump gets to the convention ahead, but with less than 50% of the delegates, that the lesser candidates pool their 3%, 8%, whatever behind one establishment candidate against Trump on a second ballot.
I think then that Trump releases his delegates to Cruz to get a majority, and then decides whether or not to run 3rd party. Just my opinion. This is the way that the parties used to select a candidate.
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Either way the Republicans will lose the election. Trump would have imprinted his image on the party at that point. My fear is that even if Trump doesn't win the nomination, his presence during the primaries would have turned away an entire generation of would be republican's and conservatives.
 
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#3,113
#3,113
carlos86 said:
Either way the Republicans will lose the election. Trump would have imprinted his image on the party at that point. My fear is that even if Trump doesn't win the nomination, his presence during the primaries would have turned away an entire generation of would be republican's and conservatives.
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Americans don't have that long of a memory. Convention is when? July or August and election in November, 4-5 months is an eternity these days.
 
#3,114
#3,114
carlos86 said:
Either way the Republicans will lose the election. Trump would have imprinted his image on the party at that point. My fear is that even if Trump doesn't win the nomination, his presence during the primaries would have turned away an entire generation of would be republican's and conservatives.
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I'm not sure of that. The reason that Repubs have lost the last couple is due to poor turnout of their base. If a candidate motivates the base, and they show up to vote, it will make a difference.
 
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#3,115
#3,115
hog88 said:
Americans don't have that long of a memory. Convention is when? July or August and election in November, 4-5 months is an eternity these days.
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Its July 18. And trust be thanks to the internet and social media my generation will never forget the bs that is Donald Trump.
 
#3,117
#3,117
1972 Grad said:
I'm not sure of that. The reason that Repubs have lost the last couple is due to poor turnout of their base. If a candidate motivates the base, and they show up to vote, it will make a difference.
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How many people do you know who skipped 2012? Almost everyone I know turned out based on their hatred for Obama alone.

The Republicans lost because Obama was a formidable opponent who mobilized his base, and the candidates just were not good campaigners (especially Mitt). The vote share of the conservative base is dwindling.
 
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#3,118
#3,118
1972 Grad said:
I'm not sure of that. The reason that Repubs have lost the last couple is due to poor turnout of their base. If a candidate motivates the base, and they show up to vote, it will make a difference.
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When you only win under 30% of the largest minority in the country you're going to lose the White House.
 
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#3,119
#3,119
UTCVol said:
How many people do you know who skipped 2012? Almost everyone I know turned out based on their hatred for Obama alone.

The Republicans lost because Obama was a formidable opponent who mobilized his base, and the candidates just were not good campaigners (especially Mitt). The vote share of the conservative base is dwindling.
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Apparently 3 million Republicans stayed home. They didn't go vote for Obama.

1) Presidential vote 2012 had 57 million Repub votes.
2) 2008 had 60 million Repub votes.
3) 3 million more stayed home. They weren't motivated to go vote.
4) Obama had 10 million fewer votes in 2012 than 2008. A lot of his supporters stayed home too.
 
#3,122
#3,122
1972 Grad said:
Apparently 3 million Republicans stayed home. They didn't go vote for Obama.

1) Presidential vote 2012 had 57 million Repub votes.
2) 2008 had 60 million Repub votes.
3) 3 million more stayed home. They weren't motivated to go vote.
4) Obama had 10 million fewer votes in 2012 than 2008. A lot of his supporters stayed home too.
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Where are you getting those numbers? Wiki says 59.9M in 2008 to 61M in 2012. Obama lost 4M votes, but I don't think many of those went to Romney.

I agree that the base wasn't motivated for Romney, but none of the other candidates in that race would have generated 4.5 million votes in increased turnout. Actually, pretty much all of them would probably have done worse.
 
#3,123
#3,123
Hillary calls for higher taxes on the wealthy.. Her defination is for individuals making $255k or higher a year.. $255k a year is wealthy??? Really??? Shocking but again Dems believes your money is theirs
 
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#3,124
#3,124
Biopsyman said:
Hillary calls for higher taxes on the wealthy.. Her defination is for individuals making $255k or higher a year.. $255k a year is wealthy??? Really??? Shocking but again Dems believes your money is theirs
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To her target audience $255k a year IS wealthy.
 
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#3,125
#3,125
UTCVol said:
Where are you getting those numbers? Wiki says 59.9M in 2008 to 61M in 2012. Obama lost 4M votes, but I don't think many of those went to Romney.

I agree that the base wasn't motivated for Romney, but none of the other candidates in that race would have generated 4.5 million votes in increased turnout. Actually, pretty much all of them would probably have done worse.
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Given the fact that the field is so fractured, and there appears to be so much antipathy within the GOP across these candidate lines, what makes you think that the GOP nominee this time is going to particularly motivate the GOP to turn out?

They may unify behind anti-Clinton, but they won't be voting FOR their own guy, as much as voting AGAINST her. It might be enough to win, but fact is the GOP is really lacking anyone with that rare combination of credentials and charisma.
 
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