'16 TN WR Nate Johnson

#277
#277
KBVol said:
As usual, you completely missed the point, and threw in a straw man for good measure. We're talking about this year, year 3, when our passing game actually took a step backward. You think Harbaugh, and the other coaches of the teams we're battling for the WRs we've targeted this cycle, aren't pointing to our poor passing game as reason why NOT to go to Tennessee this year? Do you really think this didn't happen yesterday in Michigan and everywhere else one of our WR targets visits?
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Statistically, all things considered, our passing game didn't take a step backward though. We just didn't get much better.

We HS fewer sacks and turnovers, got much better production out of RBs in the passing game, etc. we just didn't have much of a downfield passing game, much like the past two seasons.
 
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#280
#280
Darth_Shiveman said:
Statistically, all things considered, our passing game didn't take a step backward though. We just didn't get much better.

We HS fewer sacks and turnovers, got much better production out of RBs in the passing game, etc. we just didn't have much of a downfield passing game, much like the past two seasons.
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The numbers say otherwise on almost all counts......

In 2015, we threw for 495 fewer yards and 5 fewer tds. Our top 4 WRs in 2015 had 44 fewer catches for 348 fewer yards and 4 fewer tds. Additionally, Dobbs' completion % , average yards per attempt, and QB rating all dropped. These numbers represent the actual production.

You were correct about fewer sacks and turnovers/interceptions. You were also right about better production in the passing through our RBs, but it wasn't a greatly significant difference....5 more receptions for 160 more yards and 3 more tds. But as I've already pointed out, none of these 3 things led to better overall passing game outcomes. Indeed, we had a better, more productive passing game in 2014 than in 2015.
 
#281
#281
KBVol said:
The numbers say otherwise on almost all counts......

In 2015, we threw for 495 fewer yards and 5 fewer tds. Our top 4 WRs in 2015 had 44 fewer catches for 348 fewer yards and 4 fewer tds. Additionally, Dobbs' completion % , average yards per attempt, and QB rating all dropped. These numbers represent the actual production.

You were correct about fewer sacks and turnovers/interceptions. You were also right about better production in the passing through our RBs, but it wasn't a greatly significant difference....5 more receptions for 160 more yards and 3 more tds. But as I've already pointed out, none of these 3 things led to better overall passing game outcomes. Indeed, we had a better, more productive passing game in 2014 than in 2015.
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Well the passing yards you're counting are from 13 games in 2014 and we have 1 more game left. Even with that one more game unless Dobbs throws for 500 yards it will be less than last year. But the reason we have less passing yards this year isn't simply because we're a worse passing team. I would argue that the main reason is because we've rushed the ball so well.

We've already gained close to 700 more rushing yards this year than last year and that's with 1 game left to go. We could possibly end up rushing for a 1000 yards more this year than last year. And throw in somewhere around 175-200 passing yards and you're looking at the this year's offense gaining a total of 500-600 yards more this year than last year.

The goal is to score and to use your strength to do so. For this team this year the strength has been running the ball, and thus the passing game has gotten less attention.

I wouldn't say that averaging 25 less passing yards per game is a huge setback but that's just my opinion.
 
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#283
#283
DL916 said:
Well the passing yards you're counting are from 13 games in 2014 and we have 1 more game left. Even with that one more game unless Dobbs throws for 500 yards it will be less than last year. But the reason we have less passing yards this year isn't simply because we're a worse passing team. I would argue that the main reason is because we've rushed the ball so well.

We've already gained close to 700 more rushing yards this year than last year and that's with 1 game left to go. We could possibly end up rushing for a 1000 yards more this year than last year. And throw in somewhere around 175-200 passing yards and you're looking at the this year's offense gaining a total of 500-600 yards more this year than last year.

The goal is to score and to use your strength to do so. For this team this year the strength has been running the ball, and thus the passing game has gotten less attention.

I wouldn't say that averaging 25 less passing yards per game is a huge setback but that's just my opinion.
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We're definitely a better running team, no question about that. It's our strength, we're a running team. The debate is not about that or whether or not we had a better offense this year. We absolutely did.

All I did was post our offensive passing numbers in response to the idea that our passing game hadn't taken a step back. I believe they show that it has. After naming our starting QB prior to the Spring for the first time in 3 years and after naming Azzani our Passing Game Coordinator, the passing game took a step back IMO. 25 fewer yards passing per game....lower completion percentage....lower yards per attempt....lower QB rating for Dobbs....2 games with less than 90 yards passing....half our games (6) with less than 150 yards throwing per game.
 
#290
#290
KBVol said:
We're definitely a better running team, no question about that. It's our strength, we're a running team. The debate is not about that or whether or not we had a better offense this year. We absolutely did.

All I did was post our offensive passing numbers in response to the idea that our passing game hadn't taken a step back. I believe they show that it has. After naming our starting QB prior to the Spring for the first time in 3 years and after naming Azzani our Passing Game Coordinator, the passing game took a step back IMO. 25 fewer yards passing per game....lower completion percentage....lower yards per attempt....lower QB rating for Dobbs....2 games with less than 90 yards passing....half our games (6) with less than 150 yards throwing per game.
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25 fewer yards per game passing
We actually had leads in most of our games this year instead of having to play catch up like we did for all of 2015. 25 fewer yards per game isn't that big of a difference when you take that and our running game into consideration.

Lower completion percentage
Yep, Dobbs struggled with accuracy much like he did last year. However, in 2014 with Pig Howard they ran a lot of those jet sweeps that count as a pass because the QB tosses it forward a yard. I don't remember seeing any of those this year. That's far from explaining it all, but it's a factor. He finally hit a deep ball at least. This is the most troubling thing about our passing game, IMO.

If you look at Dobbs' 2014 performances though, he's basically the same passer in 2015 completion percentage wise. He was under 60% passing against Bama, USCe, and Vandy in 2014. He completed 64% against Mizzou and he had two crazy efficient games against UK and Iowa. 2015 is the same story: he doesn't complete a very high percentage of passes against good defenses. He didn't "get worse."

Lower yards per attempt
True, but Dobbs did get a lot of help last season from Croom with a 50 yard TD on a screen pass against an awful UK team. Again, the 2014 team often had to play from behind as well instead of from ahead, so it makes sense that you could see a .15 YPA drop off. It's not like he went from 6.8 YPA to 5 YPA.

Lower QB rating for Dobbs
2014: Passer rating: 130.5 QBR: 73.2
2015: Passer rating: 128.2 QBR: 77.2

This is hardly a variance worth noticing. He actually improved his QBR because his INT ratio improved from 3:2 to 3:1. Protecting the ball has been the biggest improvement Dobbs made this season and it shouldn't be overlooked. This team would not have won 8 games if his TD:INT ratio hadn't improved.

2 games with less than 90 yards passing
Against two great passing and pass rushing defenses. Yeah, our passing game was garbage against UF, but the Mizzou game was one of Dobbs' most efficient and there was no need to try slinging it against them when our rushing game was on point all night and we just needed to protect a lead.

Half our games (6) with less than 150 yards throwing per game
One of Dobbs' best games thus far has been the Iowa game. He had only had 125 yards, but was efficient and our offense moved up and down the field scoring. If you look at more than just the statline, it's easy to see why we didn't go over 150 in 4 of those six games. WCU and NT because who cares the game plan is to not get hurt and get the backups in by the 4th quarter and Vandy and Mizzou because we were protecting leads all night and didn't need to open things up.

OU and UF were pretty dismal passing though.



If you look at more than just the statline, it's not hard to see that our passing game pretty much stayed the same as in 2014. The only real differences are that the 2015 team was a little less explosive because they were playing in close games and running much better and that the 2015 team protected the ball much better than the 2014 team. I'd argue that the lack of INTs more than made up for the 25 extra yards per game, .15 YPA passing, and 2.3 passer rating points that you seem so hung up on.
 
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#291
#291
Somebody should start a thread on this kid chadarius Townsend got a feeling we will offer soon even tho he's committed to bama...
 
#292
#292
Darth_Shiveman said:
25 fewer yards per game passing
We actually had leads in most of our games this year instead of having to play catch up like we did for all of 2015. 25 fewer yards per game isn't that big of a difference when you take that and our running game into consideration.

Lower completion percentage
Yep, Dobbs struggled with accuracy much like he did last year. However, in 2014 with Pig Howard they ran a lot of those jet sweeps that count as a pass because the QB tosses it forward a yard. I don't remember seeing any of those this year. That's far from explaining it all, but it's a factor. He finally hit a deep ball at least. This is the most troubling thing about our passing game, IMO.

If you look at Dobbs' 2014 performances though, he's basically the same passer in 2015 completion percentage wise. He was under 60% passing against Bama, USCe, and Vandy in 2014. He completed 64% against Mizzou and he had two crazy efficient games against UK and Iowa. 2015 is the same story: he doesn't complete a very high percentage of passes against good defenses. He didn't "get worse."

Lower yards per attempt
True, but Dobbs did get a lot of help last season from Croom with a 50 yard TD on a screen pass against an awful UK team. Again, the 2014 team often had to play from behind as well instead of from ahead, so it makes sense that you could see a .15 YPA drop off. It's not like he went from 6.8 YPA to 5 YPA.

Lower QB rating for Dobbs
2014: Passer rating: 130.5 QBR: 73.2
2015: Passer rating: 128.2 QBR: 77.2

This is hardly a variance worth noticing. He actually improved his QBR because his INT ratio improved from 3:2 to 3:1. Protecting the ball has been the biggest improvement Dobbs made this season and it shouldn't be overlooked. This team would not have won 8 games if his TD:INT ratio hadn't improved.

2 games with less than 90 yards passing
Against two great passing and pass rushing defenses. Yeah, our passing game was garbage against UF, but the Mizzou game was one of Dobbs' most efficient and there was no need to try slinging it against them when our rushing game was on point all night and we just needed to protect a lead.

Half our games (6) with less than 150 yards throwing per game
One of Dobbs' best games thus far has been the Iowa game. He had only had 125 yards, but was efficient and our offense moved up and down the field scoring. If you look at more than just the statline, it's easy to see why we didn't go over 150 in 4 of those six games. WCU and NT because who cares the game plan is to not get hurt and get the backups in by the 4th quarter and Vandy and Mizzou because we were protecting leads all night and didn't need to open things up.

OU and UF were pretty dismal passing though.



If you look at more than just the statline, it's not hard to see that our passing game pretty much stayed the same as in 2014. The only real differences are that the 2015 team was a little less explosive because they were playing in close games and running much better and that the 2015 team protected the ball much better than the 2014 team. I'd argue that the lack of INTs more than made up for the 25 extra yards per game, .15 YPA passing, and 2.3 passer rating points that you seem so hung up on.
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I gave data, evidence (to go along with what I saw) to prove my thought that the passing game took a step backward. You gave data, evidence to prove your thought that the same bad passing game from 2014 pretty much stayed the same in 2015, after another year in Butch's system, with a clearcut, experienced starting QB from day one, with a dedicated "coach" organizing it. So what are we really debating here?
 
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#294
#294
KBVol said:
I gave data, evidence (to go along with what I saw) to prove my thought that the passing game took a step backward. You gave data, evidence to prove your thought that the same bad passing game from 2014 pretty much stayed the same in 2015, after another year in Butch's system, with a clearcut, experienced starting QB from day one, with a dedicated "coach" organizing it. So what are we really debating here?
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Honestly I'm not sure. I don't disagree with what you're getting at about the passing game overall. It didn't take the step forward it needed to.

But at the same time I disagree if you're saying that Dobbs was a worse passer in 2015 than in 2014 or that our passing game was worse than 2014.
 
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#295
#295
Darth_Shiveman said:
Honestly I'm not sure. I don't disagree with what you're getting at about the passing game overall. It didn't take the step forward it needed to.

But at the same time I disagree if you're saying that Dobbs was a worse passer in 2015 than in 2014 or that our passing game was worse than 2014.
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Fair enough. I'm honestly just saying that the passing game regressed a bit overall. Perhaps there were other factors, certainly we relied on our running game more and for good reason. As a fan, I'm concerned because unless our passing game takes a significant jump forward in 2016, I think we can't get to a championship level and I think what our passing game looks like on film and on paper will be used against us in recruiting....it appears to me like that's already the case. Jmo.
 
#296
#296
KBVol said:
Fair enough. I'm honestly just saying that the passing game regressed a bit overall. Perhaps there were other factors, certainly we relied on our running game more and for good reason. As a fan, I'm concerned because unless our passing game takes a significant jump forward in 2016, I think we can't get to a championship level and I think what our passing game looks like on film and on paper will be used against us in recruiting....it appears to me like that's already the case. Jmo.
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I agree that the passing game has to make a jump to get us to the next level. I still don't think "regression" is the right term though unless you mean it in the sense of "if you're not getting better, you're getting worse." I know it's a semantic argument though and I agree that something is off about our passing game.

The question is whether it's scheme, Dobbs' limits as a passer, WR coaching, QB coaching, or how much all of those have combined as mitigating factors. I think we both agree that an upgrade at WR coach and Passing Game Coordinator would be a welcome change though :)
 
#298
#298
Darth_Shiveman said:
I agree that the passing game has to make a jump to get us to the next level. I still don't think "regression" is the right term though unless you mean it in the sense of "if you're not getting better, you're getting worse." I know it's a semantic argument though and I agree that something is off about our passing game.

The question is whether it's scheme, Dobbs' limits as a passer, WR coaching, QB coaching, or how much all of those have combined as mitigating factors. I think we both agree that an upgrade at WR coach and Passing Game Coordinator would be a welcome change though :)
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Agreed, especially with your last point. While Joshua struggled with his accuracy at different points, I honestly think they coddled him too much, didn't give him enough freedom/opportunities. In most games, we played our passing game very close to the vest. Yet, when we were desperate for it, when we needed the passing game to click because we were down 21 points vs Georgia, we opened it up and Dobbs responded...kinda like last year at SCar.

I think it's more the mindset/philosophy of Jones and the inability of Z to effectively coach up his very talented WRs.

Here's hoping they get it figured out. If they do, I think 2016 will be special. If not, we're right back here complaining again a year from now IMHO.
 
#299
#299
KBVol said:
Fair enough. I'm honestly just saying that the passing game regressed a bit overall. Perhaps there were other factors, certainly we relied on our running game more and for good reason. As a fan, I'm concerned because unless our passing game takes a significant jump forward in 2016, I think we can't get to a championship level and I think what our passing game looks like on film and on paper will be used against us in recruiting....it appears to me like that's already the case. Jmo.
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I think if the line improves more it will help tremendously. I don't believe the inaccuracy is 100% on Dobbs. Jmo
 
#300
#300
nicksjuzunk said:
He's from Tennessee. If he was interested, he wouldn't have pulled the trigger for Michigan before visiting Knoxville. He knows enough, and still chose UM
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i agree. I guess we can only hope that a new WR coach can re-open this door. We desperately need a guy that can step into the slot WR spot ASAP.
 
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