Butch says it takes 6 to 7 years to build a program in the SEC

[butchna]

Every 4 star in that class, save for North, plus Vereen and Cam was already committed. Even Dooley had us in North's top 2 by the time Butch took over.

How many 4 stars were in that class? Could've sworn North was the only one...maybe Carr? That class was destined for a dumpster fire if Dooley had stayed...you'll admit that? Sutton was heavily rumored to be flipping to Auburn.

 

[butchna]

Craigslist.

That's a smokescreen...I wouldn't tell them.

 

[Volosaurus rex]

How many 4 stars were in that class? Could've sworn North was the only one...maybe Carr? That class was destined for a dumpster fire if Dooley had stayed...you'll admit that? Sutton was heavily rumored to be flipping to Auburn.

Five four-star signees based solely on Rivals (http://sports.yahoo.com/footballrecruiting/football/recruiting/commitments/2013/tennessee-71):

Jason Carr DE Memphis, TN (White Station) 6'6" 280

Paul Harris WR Upper Marlboro, MD (Frederick Douglass) 6'4" 186

Marquez North WR Charlotte, NC (Mallard Creek) 6'3" 205

Jalen Reeves-Maybin ATH Clarksville, TN (Northeast) 6'1" 198

Austin Sanders OL Cleveland, TN (Bradley Central) 6'5" 300

 

[butchna]

Five four-star signees based solely on Rivals (http://sports.yahoo.com/footballrecruiting/football/recruiting/commitments/2013/tennessee-71):

Jason Carr DE Memphis, TN (White Station) 6'6" 280

Paul Harris WR Upper Marlboro, MD (Frederick Douglass) 6'4" 186

Marquez North WR Charlotte, NC (Mallard Creek) 6'3" 205

Jalen Reeves-Maybin ATH Clarksville, TN (Northeast) 6'1" 198

Austin Sanders OL Cleveland, TN (Bradley Central) 6'5" 300

Paul Harris and Carr huh? That's a foundation. Saw this was purely Rivals...got the 247 composite? May be only North and maybe Carr.

 

[Volosaurus rex]

Paul Harris and Carr huh? That's a foundation. Saw this was purely Rivals...got the 247 composite? May be only North and maybe Carr.

They had four listed: North, Dobbs, Carr and Reeves-Maybin (Tennessee 2013 Football Commits).

 

[butchna]

They had four listed: North, Dobbs, Carr and Reeves-Maybin (Tennessee 2013 Football Commits).

So Dobbs was a 3 star on Rivals but composite 4?...thanks.

 

[HoptownVol]

"It takes 3 years to install a new offense." Phil Fulmer

 

[DD4ME]

http://www.volnation.com/forum/tenn...6-butch-dabo-clemson-season.html#post12048469

 

[BeecherVol]

Didn't Dooley have 3 straight top 15 classes and lay a foundation for Butch's top 25 class in 2013?

He averaged a 13 class over the 3 he signed. His worst, was 17 which was his last.

Its actually pretty remarkable that he was able to land what he did given his lazy approach and poor performances on the field.

Its a testament to UT.

 

[daj2576]

Just like this year, they had UGA winning.

There only reason that the numbers failed to predict Missouri winning the east was because they couldn't have accounted for how bad UF has been at picking coaches.

 

[jasonvol18]

If 10-2 includes an L to UF that more than likely won't happen. If the second L comes in the conference that will just about seal it.

The road to Atlanta is going through FL now.

Exactly. If we lose to UF and say end up 10-2 then we won't win the East unless UF goes back to how they were under Muschamp.If both loses are to say Ala and A'M then we would have a shot. I'm really not sold on CJM yet,he is winning with Defense and that is one area Muschamp left loaded before he left and not sure how good of a recruiter he is. They have 21 committs already and are ranked #13. They should be benefiting from the year he is having. Still 4 months till signing day but to about to be the SEC East Champ's and only having one close loss at LSU they should be pulling in more high profile players. UF should be top 6-8 every year in recruiting based off location and being a state school in Florida.

 

[daj2576]

Can you pick games 70% of the time? Not the spread but win or lose. Analyzing the talent on a team will point you in the right direction but if Baylor or TCU played UGA or any of the teams with higher recruiting rankings ten times would they lose seven of them?

As to your first question, yes.

As to your point about TCU, Baylor, there is a 30% failure rate of the system that they fall well within. TCU and Baylor are, like Arkansas was under Petrino, over-achieving at a rate outside of expectations. That should be applauded, it should also be put in context. The Big XII is not made up of a lot of teams that recruit in the top 15 (the threshold for national title contention). In fact, Texas and Oklahoma are the only schools in the Big XII that do that (if memory serves) compared to Alabama, LSU, Auburn, Texas A&M, Florida, UGA, and UT in the SEC. The point is that while Baylor and TCU are rattling off more wins than they should, they are doing it against teams that average the quality of talent that Kentucky or Vanderbilt put on the field. As the system has shown, the better the talent, the more stable the predictions become. In other words, given a tougher schedule, over a series of seasons (not individual stand alone games, like bowls) any appreciable over performance of those teams would likely flatten considerably. That is why what Petrino did at Arky was so exceptional, he was over performing, consistently, against a very tough schedule.

EDIT: I went back and double checked the numbers. In the top 30 teams in the country, from a talent perspective, the Big XII only has 3 teams- Oklahoma, Texas and Oklahoma State. The SEC, for comparison, has 11. The PAC has 7. The B1G has 4. The meat of the Big XII resides in the 30-70 range, with 7 teams falling there, but 4 of those 7 falling within the 30-50 range. The SEC's 3 worst teams, talent wise, fall above the meat of the BIG XII.

 

[jasonvol18]

There only reason that the numbers failed to predict Missouri winning the east was because they couldn't have accounted for how bad UF has been at picking coaches.

And Richt loses games he had no business losing with the talent he brings in year in and out.

 

[daj2576]

Look at Florida's players that are on the field and not who should or could be based on past recruiting rankings. All they have is a secondary, one decent defensive lineman and one good receiver. The loss was emotional but the team they put on the field is not as talented as the one we have. We lost to Arkansas and Oklahoma who Daj said we should beat. Hedging because Oklahoma is close doesn't mean we should have lost if we go by the numbers. Pointing to Daj works for UF but none of the pumpers bring them up when discussing the two losses to Missouri and the loss to Vanderbilt. I don't think there is anything wrong with saying we blew games we should have won. The ones pointing it out are not enemies of the program or opponents to be vanquished. Everyone loves and wants the best for the Vols.

Butch has under performed by two games a year at UT, except for this year (fingers crossed we win out and he cuts his negative performance in half). He has a history of over performing by 2 or more games a season. Give it time.

Compared to Dooley, Kiff, and Fulmer's last couple years, even a 2 game under performance is as good as, if not better than, the best UT has been able to do over that time.

 

[daj2576]

And Richt loses games he had no business losing with the talent he brings in year in and out.

Richt gets bashed, but in reality he falls within expectations (better than Saban actually). Yes, he loses games he should win, but on a seasonal trend, he tends to balance those out with winning a game he should lose. The problem is that the games he loses to inferior opponents tend to have greater implications on the SEC title game than the inverse.

 

[champyvol]

Butch Jones: It takes six or seven years in the SEC to build a program

An excerpt from the article...

While we live in a world of instant gratification, Jones — just in his 3rd season in Knoxville — scaled back expectations a little and indicated that he may need an additional three years at the least to fully bring the Vols back to prominence. Jones identified weak spots right now in the program such as the offensive line, defensive line and receivers.

tells you what kind of coach he is. we are on the decade plan. lol

 

[volunteerfan]

K If you want to argue that Saban develops talent faster than Butch, of course I won't argue....

Hopefully CBJ will pick up the slack in this area

 

[99gator]

There only reason that the numbers failed to predict Missouri winning the east was because they couldn't have accounted for how bad UF has been at picking coaches.

See, here is where your bias comes in.

What about South Carolina? What about Georgia? Dare I say it, what about Tennessee?

Dont the numbers you crunch show that those schools had superior talent to Missouri?

It wasn't one school Missouri bested to win the division. It was 6. Four of the six, based on numbers, have more talent than Missouri.

Yet, one of the schools is the reason Missouri won the division.

If you are consistent with your "analysis", you would conclude that several schools were the reason Missouri won the division.

 

[butchna]

See, here is where your bias comes in.

What about South Carolina? What about Georgia? Dare I say it, what about Tennessee?

Dont the numbers you crunch show that those schools had superior talent to Missouri?

It wasn't one school Missouri bested to win the division. It was 6. Four of the six, based on numbers, have more talent than Missouri.

Yet, one of the schools is the reason Missouri won the division.

If you are consistent with your "analysis", you would conclude that several schools were the reason Missouri won the division.

This has gotten way too personal for you.

 

[daj2576]

No, KB, he isn't showing that it's invalid at all. He is merely showing that it is not as detailed, not as granular, not as precise as it could be with more effort. That does not in any way offer proof (or disproof) of its accuracy.

Those are two very different things.

I can explain that if you like, but I suspect you already understand it.

I suppose if I did a dance every morning at 4am, and the sun came up a couple of hours after I did the dance, I could conclude that the sun comes up because I danced. That would also fall into the ''concrete'' and ''real world'' example, but without years of data, both before and after I danced, I can in no way ensure that my dance was causative and not just a correlation of two unrelated events.

 

[daj2576]

This has gotten way too personal for you.

He's apparently making an argument that given the best talent in the SEC east over the time span that Mizzou has been in the SEC, and easily top third talent in the SEC over the same time, that UF shouldn't be able to control it's own destiny, assuming competent coaching. It's clearly up to the teams that fall below Florida but above Mizzou to keep Mizzou from winning the east.

It's almost as if he is simultaneously trying to minimize how bad Muschamp was while exaggerating how good Mac is.

 

[butchna]

He's apparently making an argument that given the best talent in the SEC east over the time span that Mizzou has been in the SEC, and easily top third talent in the SEC over the same time, that UF shouldn't be able to control it's own destiny, assuming competent coaching. It's clearly up to the teams that fall below Florida but above Mizzou to keep Mizzou from winning the east.

It's almost as if he is simultaneously trying to minimize how bad Muschamp was while exaggerating how good Mac is.

You explained it much better than he did. :lol:

 

[overseasorange2]

He's apparently making an argument that given the best talent in the SEC east over the time span that Mizzou has been in the SEC, and easily top third talent in the SEC over the same time, that UF shouldn't be able to control it's own destiny, assuming competent coaching. It's clearly up to the teams that fall below Florida but above Mizzou to keep Mizzou from winning the east.

It's almost as if he is simultaneously trying to minimize how bad Muschamp was while exaggerating how good Mac is.

Thanks for clearing that up...hmy:lol:

 

[daj2576]

Well, none of us think that's true of 99gator, BJD.

But yeah, I understand what you're saying, we're all "on the same team here."

So you make two points: first, you repeat 99gator's complaint that DAJ's model doesn't have enough resolution on attrition. And second, you point out that DAJ's model didn't predict every game perfectly.

So, first point. Look, all teams have attrition. Florida did? Got it. Tennessee did, too. All the other teams did, too. Whose attrition had the greatest impact, and to what degree? Figuring that part out is adding resolution to the model. Adding a new tier of resolution does not invalidate the pre-existing model. And, in fact, it may not make the model more accurate. Greater resolution mostly promises greater precision, which is of course a different thing.

And second point: I personally never expected DAJ's model to predict any particular game. Because it's a holistic model that gains accuracy the more games that are included. DAJ himself points out that the core element of his model (not the whole thing, just the core "engine") is right about 70% of the time. He can crank the accuracy up a bit with the other elements, I think. In any case, 70%+ is better than the vast majority of us can do using our guts. So the logical person trusts DAJ's model over their own guesswork. But most especially over a series of games.

So the bottom line is, DAJ's model is the better than the "system" I use (instincts, mostly, a little emotion admittedly). What's your system? And do you think it's better than DAJ's?*


*helpful tip: refer to the results of Freak's "Season Picks Contest" to see how you're doing against DAJ in real time.

It's like people don't understand the simultaneous implications of recruiting and attrition. Picture it like this: If I have a stack of money, and you have a stack of money, I could lose 20 percent or more of my stack and still have more money than you have in yours, even if you lost nothing.

It's because I started with a bigger stack than you did. The amount I lost is therefore inconsequential to our relative wealth ( I still have more money than you, and in this particular football economy, that is all that matters). And, just because I have managed money poorly in the past, it doesn't make each of the stack of money that I continue to have any less valuable.

EDIT: for clarification.

 

[bowlinggreenvol]

K ...good line...where are the playmakers? QBs? Pig and Croom made some plays but any all conference? Alabama had representative speed and depth Saban's first year. He also was able to add more in his first class that year. Butch got Sutton and North for that first year but JRM needed a year of special teams. You can keep trying to spin that Saban had equal talent starting out but it makes you look unreasonable. If you want to argue that Saban develops talent faster than Butch, of course I won't argue...he does that better than 99% of the coaching populace. But Alabama at it's worst recruiting ranking, drew more ATHLETES than Dooley at his best...which wasn't good.

You're the one who said Shula had decent classes (on paper, you forget he was fired like Dooley) therefore Saban had talent. So you can keep spinning that he outrecruited Dooley despite having lower ranked classes his entire tenure.