Butch says it takes 6 to 7 years to build a program in the SEC

[BeecherVol]

I know about the stolen doghouse. :matrix:

Craigslist.

 

[Wylo]

They had talent on both lines and some speed for Saban to work with...he had to huff on adding talent and did quickly but they weren't the hopeless mess Dooley left Butch.

Keep dreaming. You guys like to imagine that Tennessee was coming off an SMU-like death penalty. They weren't.

 

[BeecherVol]

I've always thought attrition topic (specifically the how and why) to be interesting.

 

[thebjd]

Heh, KB, one guy is using facts and stats, the other guy is going with gut and emotion. I know which one of those is closer to "blind," and it's not the one with the numbers.

Look at Florida's players that are on the field and not who should or could be based on past recruiting rankings. All they have is a secondary, one decent defensive lineman and one good receiver. The loss was emotional but the team they put on the field is not as talented as the one we have. We lost to Arkansas and Oklahoma who Daj said we should beat. Hedging because Oklahoma is close doesn't mean we should have lost if we go by the numbers. Pointing to Daj works for UF but none of the pumpers bring them up when discussing the two losses to Missouri and the loss to Vanderbilt. I don't think there is anything wrong with saying we blew games we should have won. The ones pointing it out are not enemies of the program or opponents to be vanquished. Everyone loves and wants the best for the Vols.

 

[VFL-82-JP]

99 isn't using gut and emotion JP...he's giving concrete real-world examples why the talent evaluation isn't valid.

No, KB, he isn't showing that it's invalid at all. He is merely showing that it is not as detailed, not as granular, not as precise as it could be with more effort. That does not in any way offer proof (or disproof) of its accuracy.

Those are two very different things.

I can explain that if you like, but I suspect you already understand it.

 

[VFL-82-JP]

Look at Florida's players that are on the field and not who should or could be based on past recruiting rankings....

...

Everyone loves and wants the best for the Vols.

Well, none of us think that's true of 99gator, BJD.

But yeah, I understand what you're saying, we're all "on the same team here."

So you make two points: first, you repeat 99gator's complaint that DAJ's model doesn't have enough resolution on attrition. And second, you point out that DAJ's model didn't predict every game perfectly.

So, first point. Look, all teams have attrition. Florida did? Got it. Tennessee did, too. All the other teams did, too. Whose attrition had the greatest impact, and to what degree? Figuring that part out is adding resolution to the model. Adding a new tier of resolution does not invalidate the pre-existing model. And, in fact, it may not make the model more accurate. Greater resolution mostly promises greater precision, which is of course a different thing.

And second point: I personally never expected DAJ's model to predict any particular game. Because it's a holistic model that gains accuracy the more games that are included. DAJ himself points out that the core element of his model (not the whole thing, just the core "engine") is right about 70% of the time. He can crank the accuracy up a bit with the other elements, I think. In any case, 70%+ is better than the vast majority of us can do using our guts. So the logical person trusts DAJ's model over their own guesswork. But most especially over a series of games.

So the bottom line is, DAJ's model is the better than the "system" I use (instincts, mostly, a little emotion admittedly). What's your system? And do you think it's better than DAJ's?*


*helpful tip: refer to the results of Freak's "Season Picks Contest" to see how you're doing against DAJ in real time.

 

[majic73]

I tell my CEO that I need another 6 or 7 years before he can actually judge my performance...

He didn't accept that answer, for some reason...

I would assume that you too started from scratch are are bound by a once a year recruiting process

 

[thebjd]

Well, none of us think that's true of 99gator, BJD.

But yeah, I understand what you're saying, we're all "on the same team here."

So you make two points: first, you repeat 99gator's complaint that DAJ's model doesn't have enough resolution on attrition. And second, you point out that DAJ's model didn't predict every game perfectly.

So, first point. Look, all teams have attrition. Florida did? Got it. Tennessee did, too. All the other teams did, too. Whose attrition had the greatest impact, and to what degree? Figuring that part out is adding resolution to the model. Adding a new tier of resolution does not invalidate the pre-existing model. And, in fact, it may not make the model more accurate. Greater resolution mostly promises greater precision, which is of course a different thing.

And second point: I personally never expected DAJ's model to predict any particular game. Because it's a holistic model that gains accuracy the more games that are included. DAJ himself points out that the core element of his model (not the whole thing, just the core "engine") is right about 70% of the time. He can crank the accuracy up a bit with the other elements, I think. In any case, 70%+ is better than the vast majority of us can do using our guts. So the logical person trusts DAJ's model over their own guesswork. But most especially over a series of games.

So the bottom line is, DAJ's model is the better than the "system" I use (instincts, mostly, a little emotion admittedly). What's your system? And do you think it's better than DAJ's?*


*helpful tip: refer to the results of Freak's "Season Picks Contest" to see how you're doing against DAJ in real time.

Can you pick games 70% of the time? Not the spread but win or lose. Analyzing the talent on a team will point you in the right direction but if Baylor or TCU played UGA or any of the teams with higher recruiting rankings ten times would they lose seven of them?

 

[thebjd]

Another question. Why do you say Daj doesn't point specific games but use the data for UF and not the games we lost with a talent advantage. There are five losses over the last three years where we had the advantage and lost. His model does not gain accuracy over time. I love his work but each game is the 70% and that 70% is not 100% so a 13 point lead with five minutes in a game should have been a win if the odds are 70/30 with the score at zero to zero.

 

[VFL-82-JP]

Can you pick games 70% of the time? Not the spread but win or lose. Analyzing the talent on a team will point you in the right direction but if Baylor or TCU played UGA or any of the teams with higher recruiting rankings ten times would they lose seven of them?

Hehe, apparently I can pick games 59% of the time ( SEASON STANDINGS ... scroll down to the folks at 172nd place ). The best I ever remember doing in the annual bowl pick-em contests is somewhere between 65% and 70%.

DAJ's model can always beat me. Always. On my best years, on my worst years. That's why it has value as a model, because it does better than most of us can do on our own.

And here's the really key point: over time, you or I betting using our instincts would tend down toward 50%. We might start out well above it, but as time went on our curve would ease its way down.

DAJ's model would (theoretically) hold its position somewhere around the 70% line. So in the end, it should beat any lesser model--including all of us going with our instincts and emotions.

If you have a better model than DAJ's, I'd love to hear about it, BJD.

 

[VFL-82-JP]

Another question. Why do you say Daj doesn't point specific games but use the data for UF and not the games we lost with a talent advantage. There are five losses over the last three years where we had the advantage and lost.

I haven't said that. I haven't said anything about DAJ's model with respect to any specific game. Because I understand that single-game predictions are not its strength.

Are you thinking of someone else?

 

[thebjd]

Hehe, apparently I can pick games 59% of the time ( SEASON STANDINGS ... scroll down to the folks at 172nd place ). The best I ever remember doing in the annual bowl pick-em contests is somewhere between 65% and 70%.

DAJ's model can always beat me. Always. On my best years, on my worst years. That's why it has value as a model, because it does better than most of us can do on our own.

And here's the really key point: over time, you or I betting using our instincts would tend down toward 50%. We might start out well above it, but as time went on our curve would ease its way down.

DAJ's model would (theoretically) hold its position somewhere around the 70% line. So in the end, it should beat any lesser model--including all of us going with our instincts and emotions.

If you have a better model than DAJ's, I'd love to hear about it, BJD.

We would not be 50/50 or Vegas would make every game a pick 'em.

 

[thebjd]

I haven't said that. I haven't said anything about DAJ's model with respect to any specific game. Because I understand that single-game predictions are not its strength.

Are you thinking of someone else?

Maybe. The discussion was about losing to Florida then the model came up.

 

[Volosaurus rex]

From the standpoint of research methodology, the goal of any theoretical model is to explain as much of the variability within a given data set as parsimoniously as possible. To that end, identification of the right variables is critical to maximizing predictive power. And any single-variable model (e.g sliding recruiting rankings over a four-year period) that accurately predicts outcomes 70% of the time is, from this perspective, both elegant and powerful.

 

[thebjd]

I haven't said that. I haven't said anything about DAJ's model with respect to any specific game. Because I understand that single-game predictions are not its strength.

Are you thinking of someone else?

I just made my picks for the week. No real analysis except what I have seen one Sportcenter. I probably should pick Utah but didn't

 

[bowlinggreenvol]

Yes ...you're safe. .

Saban was able to use John Parker Wilson,Andre Smith, Mike McCoy, DJ Hall,Antoine Caldwell,Justin Britt and Greg McElroy on offense to some effect. On defense Javier Arenas was pretty good...Wallace Gilberry is still playing in the NFL, Justin Woodall started for the first championship team, Marquise Johnson started from his junior year on...those are the ones I "researched"...errybody else was the shiznit! (Made that up :wink2. Saban added lots of talent really fast but he had a better starting framework than Butch...hope this helped. :hi:

And Butch was able to use Fulton, James, Stone, Tiny, Pig, Croom, Randolph, McNeil, Maggitt, AJ to name a few.

 

[bowlinggreenvol]

We are SO much luckier than UF. UT doesn't have attrition or injuries. In fact UF is the only team in the nation that does. Poor gators.

Your name clearly doesn't mean you're capable of comprehension. No one said UT hasn't suffered these very issues. Instead our fans say Dooley's recruiting rankings mean nothing because of attrition/injuries and then post UF's recruiting rankings under Muschamp as proof that UF is stocked. Evaluate their attrition/injuries/busts with the same scrutiny as you do ours. It Muschamp's top 15 classes are just that, then so are Dooley's.

 

[bowlinggreenvol]

Who said it was Urban Meyer hoodlum level? Muschamp recruited talent and Mac has coached it up... That should be enough cred for him...quit making it sound like he's doing this with FIU's roster.

Didn't Dooley have 3 straight top 15 classes and lay a foundation for Butch's top 25 class in 2013?

 

[Johncarter53]

Didn't Dooley have 3 straight top 15 classes and lay a foundation for Butch's top 25 class in 2013?

We like to think Butch is the best coach in America, so we don't acknowledge your post.

 

[Fred_Jones]

He's right.

 

[butchna]

Keep dreaming. You guys like to imagine that Tennessee was coming off an SMU-like death penalty. They weren't.

Yeah...that's what I hinted at. :thumbsup:

 

[butchna]

Didn't Dooley have 3 straight top 15 classes and lay a foundation for Butch's top 25 class in 2013?

We were beating out William&Mary for commits in that class before Butch was hired...KICK ASS foundation! :clapping:

You were griping that first year...remember how slow the team was? Be honest. This Gators team a facsimile of those athletes?

 

[bowlinggreenvol]

We were beating out William&Mary for commits in that class before Butch was hired...KICK ASS foundation! :clapping:

You were griping that first year...remember how slow the team was? Be honest. This Gators team a facsimile of those athletes?

Every 4 star in that class, save for North, plus Vereen and Cam was already committed. Even Dooley had us in North's top 2 by the time Butch took over.

 

[butchna]

And Butch was able to use Fulton, James, Stone, Tiny, Pig, Croom, Randolph, McNeil, Maggitt, AJ to name a few.

K ...good line...where are the playmakers? QBs? Pig and Croom made some plays but any all conference? Alabama had representative speed and depth Saban's first year. He also was able to add more in his first class that year. Butch got Sutton and North for that first year but JRM needed a year of special teams. You can keep trying to spin that Saban had equal talent starting out but it makes you look unreasonable. If you want to argue that Saban develops talent faster than Butch, of course I won't argue...he does that better than 99% of the coaching populace. But Alabama at it's worst recruiting ranking, drew more ATHLETES than Dooley at his best...which wasn't good.

 

[Iam4utalways]

Y'all still at it, that's what I'm talking about. So after speed reading thru a lot of posts(jk), I have to go with those that think, we were in bad shape, thanks Dooley, and Butch has made great improvement, but still is below expectations for many, but seems to be on pace to get us some NCs.

Well there is still some that are done and are ready to pull the plug on Butch, hit a restart button and let the next guy come in and take us the rest of the way( thanks Butch, now hit the bricks), still not any real candidates for his replacement.

No one likes the 6-7 year plan, and I have yet to hear his 10 year plan.

I've got to admit, it's a tough one, something so important, so many facts, graphs, opinions, and thankfully no guarantees.

It's time to beat Carolina.

Go Vols!