Why is 8 - 4 "realistic"?

#76
#76
daj2576 said:
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Daj, with regards to Tennessee this year, this chart needs to go in the bin with the 2 point conversion chart.

In fact, we've seen just how great a coach Butch is Monday-Friday. We've seen elite recruiting; we've got a great program ambassador; we're jumping out to big leads on good teams; we're playing with tremendous effort and resiliency (which is a product of Monday - Friday). He's your +2 win guy Monday - Friday.

Then on Saturdays he has shown why he has been on SEC OJT. Between Bajakian and him they have made some of the most bonehead in-game decisions one can possibly imagine and converted wins into losses by Saturday decisions alone.

sjt18 thinks Butch "gets it" since the Arkansas game. I'm not so sure. He has certainly become less afraid to let Dobbs ball and throw the rock. But the key Saturday decision against Bama was "what do I do with 40+ yard field goals?" He went completely against the analytics and cost us yet another game against yet another hated rival with a long streak against us.
 
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#77
#77
Eddie Vol Halen said:
Daj, with regards to Tennessee this year, this chart needs to go in the bin with the 2 point conversion chart.

In fact, we've seen just how great a coach Butch is Monday-Friday. We've seen elite recruiting; we've got a great program ambassador; we're jumping out to big leads on good teams; we're playing with tremendous effort and resiliency (which is a product of Monday - Friday). He's your +2 win guy Monday - Friday.

Then on Saturdays he has shown why he has been on SEC OJT. Between Bajakian and him they have made some of the most bonehead in-game decisions one can possibly imagine and converted wins into losses by Saturday decisions alone.

sjt18 thinks Butch "gets it" since the Arkansas game. I'm not so sure. He has certainly become less afraid to let Dobbs ball and throw the rock. But the key Saturday decision against Bama was "what do I do with 40+ yard field goals?" He went completely against the analytics and cost us yet another game against yet another hated rival with a long streak against us.
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What the hell do the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have to do with the Vols?
 
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#78
#78
5FingerVolPunch said:
What the hell do the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have to do with the Vols?
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He made plenty of bonehead Saturday decisions the two years prior. Not sure what he is doing at Tampa Bay but I'm glad he's not in Knoxville.

The point: there is a three year record by everyone on the BSiA of making numbingly stupid calls and decisions on Saturdays.

In the past, these type of mistakes made losses bigger losses. This year, it is converting sure fire wins into losses.

That has to stop now and forever more. No more OJT.
 
#79
#79
5FingerVolPunch said:
Problem is, the all knowing, never get anything wrong, perfect analysts started this over zealous hype train in the off season that had a lot of people thinking we were gonna win the dang SEC after coming off of a 7-6 season. Why? Because of 2 top 5 recruiting classes? Most realistic fans and Butch himself tried to curb the hype. I'll be pretty damn happy with a 8-4 regular season and a bowl win. That's huge progress in my opinion.
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Looks like the analysts nailed the preseason hype as close as the Vols have been to being undefeated.

Jones and his team just not being able to close the deal in games is what has derailed the hype train.
 
#80
#80
Eddie Vol Halen said:
He made plenty of bonehead Saturday decisions the two years prior. Not sure what he is doing at Tampa Bay but I'm glad he's not in Knoxville.

The point: there is a three year record by everyone on the BSiA of making numbingly stupid calls and decisions on Saturdays.

In the past, these type of mistakes made losses bigger losses. This year, it is converting sure fire wins into losses.

That has to stop now and forever more. No more OJT.
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Just FYI, this BSiA schtick is tired and drawn out. He said it ONCE. You've uttered it 14 times THIS MORNING! :pinch:
 
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#81
#81
Eddie Vol Halen said:
Daj, with regards to Tennessee this year, this chart needs to go in the bin with the 2 point conversion chart.

In fact, we've seen just how great a coach Butch is Monday-Friday. We've seen elite recruiting; we've got a great program ambassador; we're jumping out to big leads on good teams; we're playing with tremendous effort and resiliency (which is a product of Monday - Friday). He's your +2 win guy Monday - Friday.

Then on Saturdays he has shown why he has been on SEC OJT. Between Bajakian and him they have made some of the most bonehead in-game decisions one can possibly imagine and converted wins into losses by Saturday decisions alone.

sjt18 thinks Butch "gets it" since the Arkansas game. I'm not so sure. He has certainly become less afraid to let Dobbs ball and throw the rock. But the key Saturday decision against Bama was "what do I do with 40+ yard field goals?" He went completely against the analytics and cost us yet another game against yet another hated rival with a long streak against us.
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You're trying to force your perception on reality, and that is why you're so frustrated.

You can ignore the numbers all you want, but you'll be wrong far more than you're right. Wishful thinking isn't analysis or understanding.

I'm not defending Butch on some of the calls you mentioned, but there is another side to this story.

Take about 115 other division 1 coaches and the records are the same given the same talent. The numbers bear this out. Few coaches have any actual effect that can be separated from their talent that most perceive. For example, on the Season, Saban has the same net performance as Butch against talent. If Saban, whom many incorrectly believe is the gold standard in coaching, can't win them all with the best roster in CFB, how can you expect a coach with a lessor and flawed roster to do better.

The main issue is that people perceive that there are options available that would drastically change the outcome on the field. The numbers don't show that to necessarily be the case, but the grass is always greener.
 
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#82
#82
Eddie Vol Halen said:
Daj, with regards to Tennessee this year, this chart needs to go in the bin with the 2 point conversion chart.

In fact, we've seen just how great a coach Butch is Monday-Friday. We've seen elite recruiting; we've got a great program ambassador; we're jumping out to big leads on good teams; we're playing with tremendous effort and resiliency (which is a product of Monday - Friday). He's your +2 win guy Monday - Friday.

Then on Saturdays he has shown why he has been on SEC OJT. Between Bajakian and him they have made some of the most bonehead in-game decisions one can possibly imagine and converted wins into losses by Saturday decisions alone.

sjt18 thinks Butch "gets it" since the Arkansas game. I'm not so sure. He has certainly become less afraid to let Dobbs ball and throw the rock. But the key Saturday decision against Bama was "what do I do with 40+ yard field goals?" He went completely against the analytics and cost us yet another game against yet another hated rival with a long streak against us.
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Once again...6 days ago the best coach in CFB kicked a FG from the 2 w/ his battering ram on the sidelines....a little later he had a 2 pt conversion fail. These decisions are not as absolute as you and various others tend to yammer on and on about.
 
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#83
#83
JC61 said:
Once again...6 days ago the best coach in CFB kicked a FG from the 2 w/ his battering ram on the sidelines....a little later he had a 2 pt conversion fail. These decisions are not as absolute as you and various others tend to yammer on and on about.
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The 2 point conversion try was the correct decision as adding the extra point did him absolutely no good....hopefully Jones has learned that lesson since the Florida game. Bama's 2 pt try failed, but Saban, along with the rest of the college football world, knew that was the default call, unlike Jones a few weeks ago...which is why Jones got so much heat.
 
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#84
#84
daj2576 said:
You're trying to force your perception on reality, and that is why you're so frustrated.

You can ignore the numbers all you want, but you'll be wrong far more than you're right. Wishful thinking isn't analysis or understanding.

I'm not defending Butch on some of the calls you mentioned, but there is another side to this story.

Take about 115 other division 1 coaches and the records are the same given the same talent. The numbers bear this out. Few coaches have any actual effect that can be separated from their talent that most perceive. For example, on the Season, Saban has the same net performance as Butch against talent. If Saban, whom many incorrectly believe is the gold standard in coaching, can't win them all with the best roster in CFB, how can you expect a coach with a lessor and flawed roster to do better.

The main issue is that people perceive that there are options available that would drastically change the outcome on the field. The numbers don't show that to necessarily be the case, but the grass is always greener.
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The numbers said this Daj:

Two TD leads in the fourth quarter against Oklahoma and Florida. Two teams we essentially equalled in talent.

Teams were 188 - 3 with two TD leads in the fourth quarter. Tennessee accounted for 67% of those losses. Against equal talent.

Talent matters. We all get that. But the numbers that matter now are those above. How the game ACTUALLY played out now.

How Butch hasn't figured out to go for it on the 1-inch line with Jalen Hurd. How Butch hasn't figured out the correct situations to kick a field goal against a hated rival. How a hurry up offense can't run a 2-minute drill with any effectiveness. Time-outs. Stuff on Saturdays.
 
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#85
#85
KBVol said:
The 2 point conversion try was the correct decision as adding the extra point did him absolutely no good....hopefully Jones has learned that lesson since the Florida game. Bama's 2 pt try failed, but Saban, along with the rest of the college football world, knew that was the default call, unlike Jones a few weeks ago...which is why Jones got so much heat.
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well KB...I do see the point, just don't 100% agree - 2pt conversions are not a given to work and UT still loses if it doesn't. UT being up 12 with about 10 mins left in the game is much different than going up by 5 with 3 mins left...at least to me. UF wasn't really lighting it up and the coach must have thought his D would continue to hold...instead of giving up 2 TDs inside of 5 or 6 mins. If its only about having balls...then ok, I can accept that angle...but I probably would have kicked the PAT as well given how my D was working up to that point in time.
 
#86
#86
JC61 said:
Once again...6 days ago the best coach in CFB kicked a FG from the 2 w/ his battering ram on the sidelines....a little later he had a 2 pt conversion fail. These decisions are not as absolute as you and various others tend to yammer on and on about.
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I know I sighed in relief when Saban kicked the FG from the 2 yard line. But I'm sure our brilliant fan base would have agreed it was a smart decision if Jones had done the same thing in the same situation. LOL
 
#87
#87
Eddie Vol Halen said:
The numbers said this Daj:

Two TD leads in the fourth quarter against Oklahoma and Florida. Two teams we essentially equalled in talent.

Teams were 188 - 3 with two TD leads in the fourth quarter. Tennessee accounted for 67% of those losses. Against equal talent.

Talent matters. We all get that. But the numbers that matter now are those above. How the game ACTUALLY played out now.

How Butch hasn't figured out to go for it on the 1-inch line with Jalen Hurd. How Butch hasn't figured out the correct situations to kick a field goal against a hated rival. How a hurry up offense can't run a 2-minute drill with any effectiveness. Time-outs. Stuff on Saturdays.
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It is irrelevant to the outcome whether a team goes up and barely loses, or gets way behind and barely loses. The score doesn't matter, at all, until the final second ticks off the clock.

I'll say it again. UT has beat one more talented team, and lost to one less talented team. That's a wash. It's the same as beating Arkansas and losing to UGA.

UT also lost, in 2 OT, to a team that is virtually a mirror image of themselves.

You're picking out things that seem to magnify your point, but when looking at all of CFB, there aren't many options that would have had a vastly different outcome on the season. The difference for many would be that you wouldn't have seen a game where UT got in front of more talented teams.
 
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#89
#89
ReaderVol said:
I know I sighed in relief when Saban kicked the FG from the 2 yard line. But I'm sure our brilliant fan base would have agreed it was a smart decision if Jones had done the same thing in the same situation. LOL
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Lol yea right! Edddie, catbone, kb all would have twenty threads a piece wondering why we kicked the field goal instead of going for it even if we had won. Yet the "best" coach in CFB did just this!
 
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#91
#91
Has Butch proven he can win big at UT, that's what I thought
rlol_orange.gif
 
#92
#92
JC61 said:
well KB...I do see the point, just don't 100% agree - 2pt conversions are not a given to work and UT still loses if it doesn't. UT being up 12 with about 10 mins left in the game is much different than going up by 5 with 3 mins left...at least to me. UF wasn't really lighting it up and the coach must have thought his D would continue to hold...instead of giving up 2 TDs inside of 5 or 6 mins. If its only about having balls...then ok, I can accept that angle...but I probably would have kicked the PAT as well given how my D was working up to that point in time.
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It's just a matter of simple math. You go for 2 when you're up 5, when you're up 12, because the extra point does you no good either way, as we saw vs Florida.

If you kick the extra point to go up 13, 2 TDs and 2 extra points beat you by 1, which is what happened. If you go for 2 and don't make it, then you lose by 2 rather than 1...no difference.

However, if you go for 2 and make it, 2 tds and 2 extra points only force overtime, they don't beat you, which is what could've happened vs Florida. All water under the bridge, but, IMHO, there is a right and wrong answer to the scenario....he should've gone for two. That being said, if the defense had come up with just one 4th down stop we would've won the game. The loss to Florida was a total team effort after what was a really good showing for about 50 minutes. Hopefully everyone learns and improves and that doesn't happen again....in our lifetimes. 😬
 
#93
#93
daj2576 said:
It is irrelevant to the outcome whether a team goes up and barely loses, or gets way behind and barely loses. The score doesn't matter, at all, until the final second ticks off the clock.

I'll say it again. UT has beat one more talented team, and lost to one less talented team. That's a wash. It's the same as beating Arkansas and losing to UGA.

UT also lost, in 2 OT, to a team that is virtually a mirror image of themselves.

You're picking out things that seem to magnify your point, but when looking at all of CFB, there aren't many options that would have had a vastly different outcome on the season. The difference for many would be that you wouldn't have seen a game where UT got in front of more talented teams.
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What are you talking about?

Your own model is essentially a coin flip for the SEC this season!!!

Are you really trying to say we lost to Florida because spreadsheet numbers said they were more talented????

Are you really saying that?

The numbers magnify my point because, especially at this stage, they are the only numbers that matter:

188 - 3 when leading by two TDs in the fourth quarter. Butch Jones and the BSiA own two of those losses.

Ain't no spreadsheet gone predict that!!!!

Moreover, both losses were against teams which your spreadsheet said were essentially equal in talent. The reality is, when factoring in actually reality other than a Rivals ranking, UT had significant advantages over Florida THIS YEAR.

Talent matters. Rivals rankings have merit and are clearly instructive. Before this year, I would probably have said that recruiting is 70% of college football - much like your model. Butch and the BSiA though have shown me new things this year.
 
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#94
#94
Eddie Vol Halen said:
What are you talking about?

Your own model is essentially a coin flip for the SEC this season!!!

Are you really trying to say we lost to Florida because spreadsheet numbers said they were more talented????

Are you really saying that?

The numbers magnify my point because, especially at this stage, they are the only numbers that matter:

188 - 3 when leading by two TDs in the fourth quarter. Butch Jones and the BSiA own two of those losses.

Ain't no spreadsheet gone predict that!!!!

Moreover, both losses were against teams which your spreadsheet said were essentially equal in talent. The reality is, when factoring in actually reality other than a Rivals ranking, UT had significant advantages over Florida THIS YEAR.

Talent matters. Rivals rankings have merit and are clearly instructive. Before this year, I would probably have said that recruiting is 70% of college football - much like your model. Butch and the BSiA though have shown me new things this year.
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.
 
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#95
#95
JC61 said:
well KB...I do see the point, just don't 100% agree - 2pt conversions are not a given to work and UT still loses if it doesn't. UT being up 12 with about 10 mins left in the game is much different than going up by 5 with 3 mins left...at least to me. UF wasn't really lighting it up and the coach must have thought his D would continue to hold...instead of giving up 2 TDs inside of 5 or 6 mins. If its only about having balls...then ok, I can accept that angle...but I probably would have kicked the PAT as well given how my D was working up to that point in time.
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For the game situation the kick was no different than getting zero points. Saban would have lost with a Tennessee touchdown if he kicks the extra point or missed the conversion. He went for two which was the right call because making it keeps the touchdown from beating him. We should have went for two for the same reason. If we don't convert we lose by two, if we do we go to overtime. The extra point was no different than a failed two point conversion.
 
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#98
#98
thebjd said:
For the game situation the kick was no different than getting zero points. Saban would have lost with a Tennessee touchdown if he kicks the extra point or missed the conversion. He went for two which was the right call because making it keeps the touchdown from beating him. We should have went for two for the same reason. If we don't convert we lose by two, if we do we go to overtime. The extra point was no different than a failed two point conversion.
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I understand basic math and don't need any lessons on how the points breakout; however, we are talking 2 completely different scenarios. I 100% agree going for 2 when up by 5 with 3 minutes left in a game where your opponent has shown the ability to move the ball and score in a short time frame...and probably even if they haven't.

When you're up by 12 with 10 mins to go and the opponent has not demonstrated any consistency in moving the ball...then I don't think it's an absolute. By this reasoning...if your up 19, 26, 33, etc. you guys say go for 2 in case the other team manages to score multiple touchdowns in the time remaining, when they haven't been doing it all game.

I would have more faith in my team, especially the D, to continue to hold the opponent like they have the entire game. Probably why I despise "prevent" defense...seems it frequently prevents you from winning. Just play the final part of the game like you have all along...since it seems to have been working.

Not saying I'm right and you guys are wrong...just see it different. At the end of the day...I know for certain I'll never have to make the call cause it's highly unlikely I'll ever coach a down of football or any sport above the pee wee level.
 
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#99
#99
KingtUT said:
Were not a top 10 team. While the coaching was definately questionable in the UF loss and the OK loss, they still put the team in position to win on more than one occasion but nobody made a play when it was there to be made. The coaches are also responsible for us having the players to be competitive against anybody in the country. Butch represents Tennessee the way I think it should be represented so in my eyes he has a long leash. To claim these coaches are the reason we arent 12-0 is ridiculous. As much as I like Dobbs, he seems to have regressed this year. Honestly, were probably a QB away from 12-0 and thats coming from a Dobbs fan.
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I agree that Dobbs has not looked very good in the pocket. However, our O-line is not pass blocking very well either. He has no time in the pocket. I'm not sure why we even called plays that had him in the pocket at the end of the Bama game. Every time he stayed in the pocket it was a disaster or near disaster. He barely avoided multiple interceptions.

Anyway, not sure if it's the O-line coaching, talent or a combo of both but it needs to improve.
 
#100
#100
JC61 said:
well KB...I do see the point, just don't 100% agree - 2pt conversions are not a given to work and UT still loses if it doesn't. UT being up 12 with about 10 mins left in the game is much different than going up by 5 with 3 mins left...at least to me. UF wasn't really lighting it up and the coach must have thought his D would continue to hold...instead of giving up 2 TDs inside of 5 or 6 mins. If its only about having balls...then ok, I can accept that angle...but I probably would have kicked the PAT as well given how my D was working up to that point in time.
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Notice how they are only debating with you the going for 2 and staying the hell away from Saban kicking a FG from the 2 with Henry on the sideline? They can't use their "playing to win" BS in that argument. Funny how they pick and choose. LOL
 
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