I maybe wrong but just adding everything up I would go with.
Oliver, Perry, Bruce, Lovingood, and Stewart have some chance of blue shirting. Perry is unlikely as he has a UK offer already probably has some others as well that Rivals doesn't list. Oliver also somewhat unlikely because he is being recruited by Bama and has a Vandy offer. No idea if he actually would be a take for Bama or not.
I've heard Butch wants to get in 29 from various people that follow recruiting and have some access to the staff. We have 25 initial counters out of that 29 (assuming that is the correct number) and Swafford counts towards that 25. Also a possibility that a blue shirt player from last year could count towards it according to Larry(LWS). I've heard that Ralph David Abernathy will not count towards the cap because he will not go on scholarship and thus no initial counter.
Also want to point out that Joe Henderson should absolutely not count as an initial counter last year even though he does, clearinghouse screwed us there.