Recruiting Forum: Football Talk XV

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#11,134
#11,134
Dooby15 said:
I was thinking the same watching it tonight. Just doesn't seem authentic.
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The right player won tonight. Just nice to see 3 class guys sit up there. If Winston had been invited I would question it but they got it right from just bringing 3 players and giving the award to the best offensive player in the country. Just isn't a receivers award
 
#11,135
#11,135
RiotVol said:
Now that the semester is over, I had some fun with running some regressions based on recruiting and actual wins/loss.

https://dshanemiller.wordpress.com/2014/12/14/yes-virginia-recruiting-stars-do-matter-2014-edition/

For those of you who don't want (or have time) to read, I used an average of the last four classes recruit rankings and ran that against Sagarin's rankings (which factors in strength of schedule).

Two-thirds of the variation in wins/losses can be predicted by recruiting success.

slide2.jpg


I then used the residuals to pick out the under- and over-achievers for this year.

slide4.jpg



Also, Tennessee's Sagarin Rank was 29, and recruiting average was 14.
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That's very interesting to see.

I've never regression checked my numbers, but have found that this year is slightly lower than some previous year samples (my samples have been closer to 70% where this year was about 64%).

I have the 4 year trailing average data back to 2005 if you would like to save yourself the time of collating all the recruiting data back to 2002.
 
#11,136
#11,136
daj2576 said:
That's very interesting to see.

I've never regression checked my numbers, but have found that this year is slightly lower than some previous year samples (my samples have been closer to 70% where this year was about 64%).

I have the 4 year trailing average data back to 2005 if you would like to save yourself the time of collating all the recruiting data back to 2002.
Click to expand...

I was thinking about that. I think we could probably chalk it up to just differences in approach. The point though is that we both independently found that recruiting matters a great deal.

We need our own recruiting stats thread up in here.
 
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#11,139
#11,139
rallen said:
Imo Ugo to the Hill
Phillips to the Hill
Kirkland to the Hill
Newsome to the Hill!
Special week coing up!
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That would be insane, and the very reason why Butch Jones just received a 600k raise. Our defensive talent will be sick. If we can just block for a few seconds on the OL.
 
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#11,140
#11,140
DD4ME said:
Scott
Hendrix
Helm

smdh
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Y'all really need to stop with this crap. The only one that has been confirmed is Scott. There is nothing really out there on Helm other than message board rumors. There may be some truth to Helm's discontent, but let it play out before we blow up more threads with worthless ranting.
 
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#11,142
#11,142
LynxVol said:
Y'all really need to stop with this crap. The only one that has been confirmed is Scott. There is nothing really out there on Helm other than message board rumors. There may be some truth to Helm's discontent, but let it play out before we blow up more threads with worthless ranting.
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But I thought we were supposed to meltdown and assume that rumor is fact.

/blue font.
 
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#11,143
#11,143
RiotVol said:
Now that the semester is over, I had some fun with running some regressions based on recruiting and actual wins/loss.

https://dshanemiller.wordpress.com/2014/12/14/yes-virginia-recruiting-stars-do-matter-2014-edition/

For those of you who don't want (or have time) to read, I used an average of the last four classes recruit rankings and ran that against Sagarin's rankings (which factors in strength of schedule).

Two-thirds of the variation in wins/losses can be predicted by recruiting success.

slide2.jpg


I then used the residuals to pick out the under- and over-achievers for this year.

slide4.jpg



Also, Tennessee's Sagarin Rank was 29, and recruiting average was 14.
Click to expand...

Very interesting. Thanks for sharing. :hi:
 
#11,148
#11,148
RiotVol said:
Now that the semester is over, I had some fun with running some regressions based on recruiting and actual wins/loss.

https://dshanemiller.wordpress.com/2014/12/14/yes-virginia-recruiting-stars-do-matter-2014-edition/

For those of you who don't want (or have time) to read, I used an average of the last four classes recruit rankings and ran that against Sagarin's rankings (which factors in strength of schedule).

Two-thirds of the variation in wins/losses can be predicted by recruiting success.

slide2.jpg


I then used the residuals to pick out the under- and over-achievers for this year.

slide4.jpg



Also, Tennessee's Sagarin Rank was 29, and recruiting average was 14.
Click to expand...

Could you also show the over/under achiever data averaged over your time frame of 2011-2014? Or longer if you got the time? Id like to see another regression analysis along the lines of achiever ranking vs coaches salary to determine which coaches are over/underpaid and a line to determine what they should be paid based on results on the field.

Edit: I wonder if ADs use this regression data in negotiating coaching contracts. Probably not, but they should. It's kinda like the efficient market theory in finance. Risk vs return.
 
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