Who believes we are a right center country

[DAVOL]

Here's some math for the OP.

House (much closer to representing the people directly) is well over half R
Senate is over half R
Governorships are 60% R.

Thoughts?

History says the gop should have won big tonight and they did we shall see what happens in 2 years when the electorate grows by 40% or so and the gop has had full control of congress and they are protecting many many more senate seats. As far as the house when they won big in the first midterm they were able to draw the lines the way they wanted for a large portion of house districts that is a big reason they were able to keep so many house seats and acquire 1.4 million less votes for their house candidates in 2012.

 

[volinbham]

History says the gop should have won big tonight and they did we shall see what happens in 2 years when the electorate grows by 40% or so and the gop has had full control of congress and they are protecting many many more senate seats. As far as the house when they won big in the first midterm they were able to draw the lines the way they wanted for a large portion of house districts that is a big reason they were able to keep so many house seats and acquire 1.4 million less votes for their house candidates in 2012.

wait you earlier talk about overall turn out being lower in midterms but in the last sentence you try to suggest something about R popularity by citing less votes than during a presidential year? reaching.

Governorships are running at 60%. The House is a near all-time high for Republicans. If the Senate goes to 9 pickups (or even 8) that is 33% to 50% higher than a typical midterm swap.

In races that are closer to local representation (House, Senate and Governorship) the country has chosen more right than left.

 

[Gramps]

wait you earlier talk about overall turn out being lower in midterms but in the last sentence you try to suggest something about R popularity by citing less votes than during a presidential year? reaching.

Governorships are running at 60%. The House is a near all-time high for Republicans. If the Senate goes to 9 pickups (or even 8) that is 33% to 50% higher than a typical midterm swap.

In races that are closer to local representation (House, Senate and Governorship) the country has chosen more right than left.

Let's just hope the GOP does not make the same type of mistakes they made in the 2000's. Humility is something politicians forget when a little power is given to them.

 

[volinbham]

Let's just hope the GOP does not make the same type of mistakes they made in the 2000's. Humility is something politicians forget when a little power is given to them.

Oh I'm sure they will and power will shift. Neither party does well with power.

 

[volfanjustin]

Let's just hope the GOP does not make the same type of mistakes they made in the 2000's. Humility is something politicians forget when a little power is given to them.

I am sure they will, thats why I was hoping they would just miss on gaining control of the Senate.

 

[Weezy]

I think the OP has a point in that the demographics are changing. But the other 95% of his first post has no meaning at all.

The GOP needs to change their tune to be more inclusive.

 

[Franklin Pierce]

I think the OP has a point in that the demographics are changing. But the other 95% of his first post has no meaning at all.

The GOP needs to change their tune to be more inclusive.

The only way for Republicans "to be more inclusive" is to promise blacks, illegal aliens, and women, what the democrats are promising those special-interest groups.

Then, the reason for having two political parties disappears.

 

[DAVOL]

wait you earlier talk about overall turn out being lower in midterms but in the last sentence you try to suggest something about R popularity by citing less votes than during a presidential year? reaching.

Governorships are running at 60%. The House is a near all-time high for Republicans. If the Senate goes to 9 pickups (or even 8) that is 33% to 50% higher than a typical midterm swap.

In races that are closer to local representation (House, Senate and Governorship) the country has chosen more right than left.

What I was referring to is that the gop was able to maintain a nice lead in the house after the 2012 election even though they received 1.4 million less votes due to the drawing of the districts after their big wins in 2010.

 

[volfanjustin]

The Republicans do a piss poor job of explaining their message, they let libs and the media control the message. The Republican party is much more open to all people than the D party is.

 

[utvolpj]

What I was referring to is that the gop was able to maintain a nice lead in the house after the 2012 election even though they received 1.4 million less votes due to the drawing of the districts after their big wins in 2010.

Again, net votes is useless as a lone number. Large Dem strongholds will skew that easily

 

[Weezy]

The only way for Republicans "to be more inclusive" is to promise blacks, illegal aliens, and women, what the democrats are promising those special-interest groups.

Then, the reason for having two political parties disappears.

I think there's room to appeal to those groups while holding your conservative economic principles. I think there should be a lot of bipartisan support for providing a path to citizenship, while strengthening the border, and loosening the immigration bureaucracy. That won't appeal to the "they took our jobs crowd," but eventually you have to cut anchor.

If you are looking for a real game changer piece of reform, I think that would be it.

 

[utvolpj]

I think there's room to appeal to those groups while holding your conservative economic principles. I think there should be a lot of bipartisan support for providing a path to citizenship, while strengthening the border, and loosening the immigration bureaucracy. That won't appeal to the "they took our jobs crowd," but eventually you have to cut anchor.

If you are looking for a real game changer piece of reform, I think that would be it.

No immigration reform can ever be discussed until the border is secure. Of course starting at that point is useless in today's climate

 

[DAVOL]

Again, net votes is useless as a lone number. Large Dem strongholds will skew that easily

Same could be said for large gop strongholds but when you get to draw the lines you get to pick your voters.

 

[utvolpj]

Same could be said for large gop strongholds but when you get to draw the lines you get to pick your voters.

Both do that so you offer yet another useless argument.

Numbers mean nothing without context. Offering them up like you do simply shows your earlier claims are dishonest

 

[volinbham]

Presidential terms:

since 1968 7R; 5D
since 1976 5R; 5D
since 1980 5R; 4D
since 1988 3R; 4D
since 1992 2R; 4D
since 2000 2R; 2D

I fail to see the OPs premise represented here in actual election results.

 

[volinbham]

Same could be said for large gop strongholds but when you get to draw the lines you get to pick your voters.

Each side draws the lines.

The reality is that despite what the left likes to argue as demographic advantages the GOP made major gains in the Senate (if they hit 9 that will be 50% higher than a typical midterm effect); have more Representatives than at virtually anytime in history and won governships in very blue states.

Hard to argue that the country is actually center-left yet voted this way; particularly given the much ballyhooed demographic advantage (take a look at the female vote this time around)

The reality is the growing viewpoint in the country is not left or right. Dems blew this one all to heck because of p!ss poor leadership and over reach.

 

[DAVOL]

Each side draws the lines.

The reality is that despite what the left likes to argue as demographic advantages the GOP made major gains in the Senate (if they hit 9 that will be 50% higher than a typical midterm effect); have more Representatives than at virtually anytime in history and won governships in very blue states.

Hard to argue that the country is actually center-left yet voted this way; particularly given the much ballyhooed demographic advantage (take a look at the female vote this time around)

The reality is the growing viewpoint in the country is not left or right. Dems blew this one all to heck because of p!ss poor leadership and over reach.

The gop made major gains in the 2010 midterms in the states which also happened to be the census election so they got to draw a majority of the lines. Also as far as center left center right my point was I have constantly heard that the "traditional" America is center right have heard that thousands of times on FNC from the likes of O'reilly, Hannity, Kelly, and others my point was the numbers don't agree with that.

 

[utvolpj]

my point was the numbers don't agree with that.

Which numbers? You haven't posted any that show what you claim. In fact those in opposition to your numbers are much more convincing

 

[hog88]

The gop made major gains in the 2010 midterms in the states which also happened to be the census election so they got to draw a majority of the lines. Also as far as center left center right my point was I have constantly heard that the "traditional" America is center right have heard that thousands of times on FNC from the likes of O'reilly, Hannity, Kelly, and others my point was the numbers don't agree with that.

I believe the numbers from last night disagree with you.

 

[volinbham]

The gop made major gains in the 2010 midterms in the states which also happened to be the census election so they got to draw a majority of the lines. Also as far as center left center right my point was I have constantly heard that the "traditional" America is center right have heard that thousands of times on FNC from the likes of O'reilly, Hannity, Kelly, and others my point was the numbers don't agree with that.

a couple points:

1) the 2010 census did not result in redrawing lines for the 2010 election. The data was still being collected.

2) if red states grew then how is that not evidence of growth in red voters?

3) who is the "they" in this redrawing? It is state legislatures and governors. There's nothing new here and both parties gerrymander to maximize districts.

 

[DAVOL]

I believe the numbers from last night disagree with you.

That is one sixth year midterm election I was using data from many federal elections 2016 should be interesting and if I'm still breathing I'll be here.

 

[hog88]

That is one sixth year midterm election I was using data from many federal elections 2016 should be interesting and if I'm still breathing I'll be here.

Let's hope you are. :hi:

 

[volinbham]

That is one sixth year midterm election I was using data from many federal elections 2016 should be interesting and if I'm still breathing I'll be here.

At a minimum you should add those #s in. Your statistics about the House and Senate will change (particularly the gain in seats for the Senate).

Here's an interesting history lesson. As you can see, since the 90s, the GOP has reversed what was a very long and consistent history of control of the House and Senate being in D hands.

All gerrymandering? All midterm election turnout issues?

Party divisions of United States Congresses - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[DAVOL]

At a minimum you should add those #s in. Your statistics about the House and Senate will change (particularly the gain in seats for the Senate).

Here's an interesting history lesson. As you can see, since the 90s, the GOP has reversed what was a very long and consistent history of control of the House and Senate being in D hands.

All gerrymandering? All midterm election turnout issues?

Party divisions of United States Congresses - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

No I won't say all but the drawing of the districts do account for some and as soon as all the votes are certified I would most definitely add them.Also the midterms demographics and states with senate races definitely favored the gop this go around will see come 2016 if their momentum holds true.

 

[volinbham]

No I won't say all but the drawing of the districts do account for some and as soon as all the votes are certified I would most definitely add them.Also the midterms demographics and states with senate races definitely favored the gop this go around will see come 2016 if their momentum holds true.

2016 is meaningless in the larger picture. Just as you claim last night was meaningless.

It is inevitable that the GOP will lose House seats given they are at historic highs. I doubt they'll lose control though in 2016 unless they screw things up as badly as Dems did under Pelosi.

That is likely true for the Senate as well though I can see that swinging back to 50/50 pretty easily.

The presidential election is almost entirely determined by the quality of the candidate.

I looked at your presidential #s and you arbitrarily picked 1996 (because Fox started then which doesn't make much sense). If you start in 1980 the net popular vote over the time period is owned by the GOP. That still doesn't tell us much about the general position of the country. I haven't done the math but I bet the "advantage" you state in net votes disappeared with last night's data included. The gains of 7% in the Senate surely did.

If you look at the long term trend (see the link I posted), the Congress has switched to a virtual lock for Dems to control by Rs over the time period you chose.