Just a collection of my observations on the season so far, 25% through it.
-Obviously, the biggest topic of discussion has been the QB position. The obsession by some of our fans with Bailey is weird. Bizarre. He's not even the backup. He's 3rd string. He hasn't shown anything to make us think he's a savior. He came in at garbage time of some games last year and completed a bunch of 3 yard outlet passes to RBs. I really don't get it. Yes, he was highly rated as a recruit, but that doesn't seem to matter as it pertains to Milton, does it? Furthermore, Heupel has been a GREAT developer of QBs. He knows the position as well as anyone in America. And he knows who is best in HIS offense better than anyone. Nonetheless, we have a bunch of armchair QBs who think Heupel doesn't know what he's doing in not starting Bailey because...hell, I don't know why. They've just decided that based on what they want their reality to be, I guess.
But yesterday, it was obvious why Bailey is 3rd string. He doesn't throw outs with nearly the zip of the other two. He's slow to process. His release is slow. He doesn't look confident. And he's obviously not at athletic. He was 3 for 7 against the Tech scrubs. So...let's drop the Bailey talk and move on to the two QBs who are in actual consideration to start:
Hooker has looked better than Milton at this point. That's obvious. A few of his runs have reminded me of Dobbs. And he has a strong arm, though not as strong as Milton's (who does?). I think Hooker is a solid SEC starting QB who could be pretty good, but not great. A pretty good QB with this surrounding cast won't take us far, but might get us to 6 wins. Maybe 7.
Milton's struggles on the deep ball have been well-documented. What's most maddening is that he's overthrowing these guys when he could just err on the side of under-throwing to give his man a chance to catch it or get a PI call. Of greater concern to me has been his tendency to hold the ball and not spot open WRs. He does hit the outs with precision (and has more than enough arm to get it there quickly). All things considered with Milton, he's not as good as Hooker at this point.
That said, I think there is a decent chance that Milton starts next week. And here's why: our coach (who, again, has forgotten more about coaching the QB position than any of us know) sees upside in this kid that he believes he can help him reach. And that upside is high enough that, if reached by a QB, will help Tennessee win faster (as in Year 2 or 3) than going with a guy who is just "good." A great QB can compensate for a ton of other deficiencies. If Heupel thinks he can get Milton to "special," he might go with him over a guy who is better right now. Remember...this isn't about this season. It's about building this program back to what it once was. Maybe going with Milton means Tennessee only wins 5 games this year (instead of 6 or 7), but wins 8 or 9 next year (instead of 6 or 7). And the faster Tennessee can get to an 8 or 9 win season, the faster recruiting becomes easier and success starts to snowball.
I've seen enough college QBs who looked awful turn into fantastic QBs by coaches who knew how to develop them and be patient with them (Crompton by Kiffin, Ainge by Cutcliffe, Brady Quinn by Weis). Also remember....Milton is the only one of the QBs who wasn't in Knoxville for Spring practice. He's very inexperienced in this offense. As his knowledge and comfort level with the offense grows, he'll process faster, and, I'm guessing, make better, more confident throws. I'll trust Heupel on this one.
-I've seen some of our fans criticize playcalling. That's absurd. Heupel might be the best play-caller I've seen at Tennessee. He's had WRs running wide open in all 3 games. His QBs haven't been hitting (or seeing) them and his WRs haven't been catching them and his OLine hasn't always protected, but he's calling plays to get them open time after time. At one point in the Pitt game, one of the announcers said Heupel was putting on a "playcalling clinic." He was. He's elite. One thing I love about him as a playcaller is that, when he spots a weakness, he keeps going at it, even if it doesn't work the first time. Case in point: Payton had a drop on a deep ball on the first possession yesterday. But it was obvious that that play was there anytime if we just executed it. So he called it again. Overthrow. The third time, it was a TD. The opponent didn't (couldn't) stop it. So keep calling it. Kiffin does that. Spurrier did that. It works. And it sends a message to both your team and your opponent. That's one example, but I've seen it all year.
-In the past 3 years, we went into games wondering if this team would score 20 points. This team has averaged 43 ppg. That's without executing very well. I know the schedule is about to get tougher, but there's no question this offensive staff is light years ahead of the last one (or the one before that, given the relative talent they're working with).
-I like the effort of this team. They seem to play hard for this staff. I've been pleasantly surprised by the defense. They swarm to the ball. The DLine has been solid against the run. The secondary is vastly improved. Special teams have also been special. These are all things this staff has improved.
-We're using the TEs! Warren and Fant (especially Warren) have been very good in the passing game. In future years, Miles Campbell, Julian Nixon, and Trinity Bell will be weapons.
-My biggest concerns: we're shooting ourselves in the foot way too often. Dumb (and numerous) penalties cost us the Pitt game. Dropped balls by the WRs. The DLine has been pretty good against the run, but the pass rush is bad. Lack of takeaways (0 before yesterday). QB's are not seeing open WRs or not hitting them. And the OLine is just not there. Put simply: the execution has been lacking. I understand that we have a new staff, new systems, and a completely turned over roster, so there's no reason to think this team SHOULD be executing at a high level right now or that it won't improve as the year goes on, systems are learned, and players gel. But I don't know that the Oline is going to get much better. Or the pass rush. They may be what they are and that concerns me. I really hope OLine is an area of focus for improvement next year. Crawford, Perry, Spraggins, Robinson, and Lampley really need to get better by next year. Might need to get a good transfer in the portal who can plug and play.
-The stretch we have coming up will be telling. Tennessee won't beat Florida, but if we can avoid a blowout, that would be nice. But we should beat South Carolina. Missouri is beatable, maybe even a tossup. If Tennessee wins those two, 6 wins is probably in the bag. And after Kentucky had to recover an onside to beat Chattanooga by 5, they're suddenly looking beatable on 11/6. Maybe Milton is rolling by then? Remember, Jon Crompton was horrible for 4 games in 2009, then it clicked and he became the 2nd best QB in the SEC. Can Milton do the same? Does Heupel believe he can? Regardless, if Tennessee goes 2-1 in the next 3, we should be very happy. If that stretch also includes Milton turning the corner, we should be over the moon.
Overall, I've seen plenty in 3 games that needs to be cleaned up, but plenty to give me hope for the future. Anyone who expected this team to come out and be "good" in the first 3 games was delusional. Chicken little fans who are already calling this staff a failure simply don't understand how program-building works. I am looking for a team that gets better as the year goes on. Every problem won't be fixed. Tennessee may not have a winning season. And we won't know for 3-4 years if this was a good hire. But I see some reasons to think it was.
