The Great Fallacy

[vol66]

I've seen a lot of posts about our improved offensive numbers, heck, earlier in the year I posted them myself.

In overall stats it's true.

Last year we had 12 games postponed or cancelled, 10 of those were OOC games...that would have an effect on the numbers...hits, runs...so yeah it looks like this team is killing last year's team.

'Cept...what about SEC game only stats?


2015 Batting Average vs. SEC: .256
2016 Batting Average vs. SEC: .262


2015 Runs vs. SEC: 120
2016 Runs vs. SEC: 111

2015 Hits vs. SEC: 240
2016 Hits vs. SEC: 229

2015 Team ERA vs. SEC: 5.06
2016 Team ERA vs. SEC: 5.06

2015 Team Fielding% vs. SEC: .971, 31 E
2016 Team Fielding % vs. SEC: .972, 28 E


We obviously have three SEC games left, we played 29 SEC games last year, unless one gets cancelled this weekend, we'll play all 30 this year...much more accurate way to view the stats.

It is fair to say Bergeron did less with more and Simcox did more with less, but it's not enough to make a difference in the win/loss column, though one is more fun to watch than the other I guess.

 

[LA vol7]

We haven't recruited well. Bottom line. We are trying to compete in by far the toughest conference in the country with inferior talent, and the results speak for themselves!

 

[Voljlt]

I don't think it is for lack of trying in recruiting. Most of the top prospects that were recruited ended up signing MLB contracts over coming to Tennessee. The talent was originally there. By the time the dust settled on who signed contracts, the rest of the schools picked up the others. Pitching needs to improve to cut opposing scores down. It hurt losing a good pitcher early in the season.

 

[volnpowell]

I've seen a lot of posts about our improved offensive numbers, heck, earlier in the year I posted them myself.

In overall stats it's true.

Last year we had 12 games postponed or cancelled, 10 of those were OOC games...that would have an effect on the numbers...hits, runs...so yeah it looks like this team is killing last year's team.

'Cept...what about SEC game only stats?


2015 Batting Average vs. SEC: .256
2016 Batting Average vs. SEC: .262


2015 Runs vs. SEC: 120
2016 Runs vs. SEC: 111

2015 Hits vs. SEC: 240
2016 Hits vs. SEC: 229

2015 Team ERA vs. SEC: 5.06
2016 Team ERA vs. SEC: 5.06

2015 Team Fielding% vs. SEC: .971, 31 E
2016 Team Fielding % vs. SEC: .972, 28 E


We obviously have three SEC games left, we played 29 SEC games last year, unless one gets cancelled this weekend, we'll play all 30 this year...much more accurate way to view the stats.

It is fair to say Bergeron did less with more and Simcox did more with less, but it's not enough to make a difference in the win/loss column, though one is more fun to watch than the other I guess.

I would like to know what the % chance of having exactly same era from last year! :thud:

 

[VolPack22]

We have essentially been the same team during the Serrano era.

 

[FGT]

I don't think it is for lack of trying in recruiting. Most of the top prospects that were recruited ended up signing MLB contracts over coming to Tennessee. The talent was originally there. By the time the dust settled on who signed contracts, the rest of the schools picked up the others. Pitching needs to improve to cut opposing scores down. It hurt losing a good pitcher early in the season.

As has been mentioned many times in this forum, what UT has faced with the draft and recruiting is not unique to them. Many SEC and ACC schools suffer similar problems annually.

 

[whobethis16]

I've seen a lot of posts about our improved offensive numbers, heck, earlier in the year I posted them myself.

In overall stats it's true.

Last year we had 12 games postponed or cancelled, 10 of those were OOC games...that would have an effect on the numbers...hits, runs...so yeah it looks like this team is killing last year's team.

'Cept...what about SEC game only stats?


2015 Batting Average vs. SEC: .256
2016 Batting Average vs. SEC: .262


2015 Runs vs. SEC: 120
2016 Runs vs. SEC: 111

2015 Hits vs. SEC: 240
2016 Hits vs. SEC: 229

2015 Team ERA vs. SEC: 5.06
2016 Team ERA vs. SEC: 5.06

2015 Team Fielding% vs. SEC: .971, 31 E
2016 Team Fielding % vs. SEC: .972, 28 E


We obviously have three SEC games left, we played 29 SEC games last year, unless one gets cancelled this weekend, we'll play all 30 this year...much more accurate way to view the stats.

It is fair to say Bergeron did less with more and Simcox did more with less, but it's not enough to make a difference in the win/loss column, though one is more fun to watch than the other I guess.

What's the on-base percentage, number of walks, HBPs, and strike outs? I'm not asking because I'm too lazy to look, but just looking at the hits and BA does not completely cover the offense. I know every year there are hits that are taken away by good defensive plays, but to me, the ones this year involved much more solid hits than last year, which means the hitters are seeing the ball and making better contact than in the past.

That being said, it wouldn't surprise me if the numbers of runners left on was up this year, BA with RISP is down, things like that.

 

[vol66]

In my opinion, based on following the program day in and day out, including all of summer ball for the last three years, and recruiting for the last couple years, watching almost all of our games, watching our SEC brethren play games against each other, keeping up with which schools are investing in new facilities and what they have to offer in recruiting...I've come to a rather simple conclusion.

It's a vicious cycle. Post season play, meaningful post season play is what elite college baseball players want. The chance to go to Omaha. The chance to play in a great environment in front of people who care.

Sure, money is an issue, scholarships are important, especially to parents and Schools like UVA and Virginia have an advantage there, that's not changing but...

Schools like Arkansas, South Carolina, the Mississippi schools...they manage to do it and we can too.

If you can't get to the post season it's hard to recruit which is already hard because:

1. Arkansas, Florida, LSU, South Carolina, Ole Miss, Miss. State, Vanderbilt, Clemson, North Carolina even Ga. Tech have a better track record of recent post season success...and they are all in our foot print. They can almost guarantee post season play, even a school like Arkansas went to the CWS last year...they have the same record as us this year which says a lot about what it takes to MAINTAIN that kind of success in this league.

2. Some SEC schools take high draft picks and those kids trust that going to such a place will increase their value. We can't say that.

So around and around we go. Every year that goes by where we don't do those things, recruiting gets harder.

Anyone who watched the team this season knows we don't have the talent to compete. We played mostly juniors, JUCO's and seniors all season long...we had 8 guys graduate...that's uncommon at the elite levels of college baseball.

That all falls on the Coach, it's his responsibility ultimately. I fault Coach Serrano for not letting some of the young guys like Harris have a shot in midweek games, a real chance to earn a spot. I also understand that he was fighting for his job and the post season and he wanted to win every mid week game he could to give the team a chance at the post season.

It's a vicious cycle. Other than the handful of players that left as juniors last season it's fair to say the first couple of classes recruited were not up to snuff and in today's world, it's hard to recover.

But it's not all on Serrano. The school is doing the bare minimum, if someone can prove otherwise, I'd love to see the evidence.

 

[vol66]

What's the on-base percentage, number of walks, HBPs, and strike outs? I'm not asking because I'm too lazy to look, but just looking at the hits and BA does not completely cover the offense. I know every year there are hits that are taken away by good defensive plays, but to me, the ones this year involved much more solid hits than last year, which means the hitters are seeing the ball and making better contact than in the past.

That being said, it wouldn't surprise me if the numbers of runners left on was up this year, BA with RISP is down, things like that.

I have all that, sadly the 2015 stats aren't as complete when it comes to SEC Only games, give me a minute and I'll look through the notes.

 

[vol66]

Here's what I have for 2015...

Team BA .256, 938 AB, 120 R, 240 H, 38 2B, 6 3B, 21 HR, 97 BB, 226 SO, 26-37 SB-ATT

2016...

Team BA .262, 875 AB, 111 R, 229 H, 46 2B, 7 3B, 8 HR, 100 RBI, 76 BB, 209 SO, 28-42 SB

*3 SEC games left, 29 total last year

 

[BruinVol]

2. Some SEC schools take high draft picks and those kids trust that going to such a place will increase their value. We can't say that.

The problem IMO isn't exactly what you are saying here. All schools lose players to the draft even Vandy. Our problem has been we havnt recruited enough of the draft guys. The key is to over sign knowing we are going to lose some but also keep some. We simple have next to no high profile draft guys make it to campus. Recruit more of them and they will get here.


Instead we are taking guys like Dathan Pruitt that have been out of baseball for a complete year and couldn't keep his nose clean at his 2nd D1 stop

We have to oversign and from my seat we aren't doing that Nearly enough

 

[vol66]

The problem IMO isn't exactly what you are saying here. All schools lose players to the draft even Vandy. Our problem has been we havnt recruited enough of the draft guys. The key is to over sign knowing we are going to lose some but also keep some. We simple have next to no high profile draft guys make it to campus. Recruit more of them and they will get here.


Instead we are taking guys like Dathan Pruitt that have been out of baseball for a complete year and couldn't keep his nose clean at his 2nd D1 stop

We have to oversign and from my seat we aren't doing that Nearly enough

I complete agree with the numbers and the 2016 class is the biggest we have signed since CDS has been here...I don't know if he's realized the issue or if it's simply we're losing a lot of guys...

Been saying this for a couple years...we bring in like 8 kids and then we don't let them play or they aren't good enough...

Vandy and UF routinely KEEP highly drafted kids from going to the draft...they lose their share...but keeping even 1 to two a year is a huge difference in college baseball...I'm not as familiar with the ACC, I'm sure there's a couple in that group as well.

 

[ShowmeVols]

In my opinion, based on following the program day in and day out, including all of summer ball for the last three years, and recruiting for the last couple years, watching almost all of our games, watching our SEC brethren play games against each other, keeping up with which schools are investing in new facilities and what they have to offer in recruiting...I've come to a rather simple conclusion.

It's a vicious cycle. Post season play, meaningful post season play is what elite college baseball players want. The chance to go to Omaha. The chance to play in a great environment in front of people who care.

Sure, money is an issue, scholarships are important, especially to parents and Schools like UVA and Virginia have an advantage there, that's not changing but...

Schools like Arkansas, South Carolina, the Mississippi schools...they manage to do it and we can too.

If you can't get to the post season it's hard to recruit which is already hard because:

1. Arkansas, Florida, LSU, South Carolina, Ole Miss, Miss. State, Vanderbilt, Clemson, North Carolina even Ga. Tech have a better track record of recent post season success...and they are all in our foot print. They can almost guarantee post season play, even a school like Arkansas went to the CWS last year...they have the same record as us this year which says a lot about what it takes to MAINTAIN that kind of success in this league.

2. Some SEC schools take high draft picks and those kids trust that going to such a place will increase their value. We can't say that.

So around and around we go. Every year that goes by where we don't do those things, recruiting gets harder.

The only three things that can motivate top prospects who are going to get drafted out of high school in signing rounds to attend college are a) education, b) improved draft position through developed skills, and
c) the experience of competing for a college championship before entering the minor league grind where team will mean nothing.

Because a) education isn't always the biggest motivator for guys who have reason to believe they might not need a degree, and b) improved draft position is always an iffy proposition, especially for pitchers (see Kyle Serrano), a coach has to be able to c) make a believable promise of a meaningful postseason experience.

This is the time of year college baseball players live for. Classes and exams are over, so they can get enough sleep and still have some recreation time. They're on per diem, so they have a little pocket money. The hard conditioning is over because the coaches know we've. They're playing games that matter with their teammates.

Our guys aren't getting that experience.

As I see it, the main argument against retaining Serrano is that his five years of not having a more than a one-and-done cameo appearance at Hoover mean he can't look prospects in the eye and promise a chance to get to a regional and advance beyond it.

That's what it takes to make studs willing to wait three years to get paid.

 

[vol66]

The only three things that can motivate top prospects who are going to get drafted out of high school in signing rounds to attend college are a) education, b) improved draft position through developed skills, and
c) the experience of competing for a college championship before entering the minor league grind where team will mean nothing.

Because a) education isn't always the biggest motivator for guys who have reason to believe they might not need a degree, and b) improved draft position is always an iffy proposition, especially for pitchers (see Kyle Serrano), a coach has to be able to c) make a believable promise of a meaningful postseason experience.

This is the time of year college baseball players live for. Classes and exams are over, so they can get enough sleep and still have some recreation time. They're on per diem, so they have a little pocket money. The hard conditioning is over because the coaches know we've. They're playing games that matter with their teammates.

Our guys aren't getting that experience.

As I see it, the main argument against retaining Serrano is that his five years of not having a more than a one-and-done cameo appearance at Hoover mean he can't look prospects in the eye and promise a chance to get to a regional and advance beyond it.

That's what it takes to make studs willing to wait three years to get paid.

Seems like we agree, and I agree with you regarding Serrano and retention though I have misgivings about what we should do because I've lost all faith in the leadership at UT.

 

[mikeyburg]

I heard Chris Hall say last night in his postgame that Coach Serrano is a baseball legend. I don't know if I would go that far but I do think he is a great coach. Its not everyone that gets asked to be on the National Teams staff. 400 plus wins has a head coach is no small thing either. I honestly think that the athletic dept. is not committed to baseball. If you see what else is going in the SEC Vandy, Alabama, Ole Miss and their facilities.Tennessee may fall even more behind. Don't get me wrong I love Lindsey Nelson it is a beautiful ballpark and very affordable to go to a game I drive a hour to the ballpark every chance I get. I just wish we could compete with the rest of the SEC. If we had taken care of Mizzou and Auburn we might be having a whole different discussion

 

[tonybologna]

The problem IMO isn't exactly what you are saying here. All schools lose players to the draft even Vandy. Our problem has been we havnt recruited enough of the draft guys. The key is to over sign knowing we are going to lose some but also keep some. We simple have next to no high profile draft guys make it to campus. Recruit more of them and they will get here.


Instead we are taking guys like Dathan Pruitt that have been out of baseball for a complete year and couldn't keep his nose clean at his 2nd D1 stop

We have to oversign and from my seat we aren't doing that Nearly enough

I have to sort of disagree with the bold I've placed in your post above. We've had some high profile players come to Knoxville lately. Christian Stewart was a 1st round draft pick in 2015.

Look who we have now in 2016 that's getting ready to be a top 10 draft pick in Nick Senzel. As a matter of fact, from the players we have on this current roster we very easily have up to 6 players that will probably be drafted. 4 position players & 2 SP's. I feel besides Senzel we have one other player that will be a relatively high draft pick. Somewhere between rounds 3-5.

No, these are not players like Vandy & some other SEC schools seem to get year in & out. The only exception on our current roster would be Senzel. No doubt he's Vandy type material & luckily we got him as a hometown boy.

Of course, we wouldn't have Kyle Serrano if it not for his father coaching here. If he fully recovers from his arm injury then he's also going to be a pretty high draft pick as well. Zach Warren will be a draft pick. Jordan Rodgers will be a draft pick. Vincent Jackson is going to be a draft pick. Benito Santiago Jr. is probably going to be a draft pick. That's the 4 position players with Senzel that will go drafted from this 2016 roster. Not all are seniors.

Vincent Jackson is the only senior of these 6 players that will be drafted. Of course, Senzel is leaving a year early because he's a guaranteed top 10 pick. I would say the other 4 will all be back next season but there's a chance one or more of these guys will get drafted in the 2016 draft but not high enough so they will stay another year.

Kyle Serrano will be back to give his arm a test to see how it holds up. Jordan Rodgers would be the one as a junior that might get drafted just high enough to cause him to go pro a year early but that's probably not likely either.

So, we do have some talent on this team. Better talent than quite a few SEC schools if you ask me. Not Vandy talent or UF talent but we have some decent players with draftability for quite a few of them. But, to get into the upper echelon of the SEC we must get better talent period. We're always in the bottom 3rd of the SEC in baseball every season.

For that to change we must start getting better talent & somehow get some of these top recruits to come to Knoxville to play baseball. Players like a Todd Helton. Players like a Chris Burke. We need talent like that. I'm not saying we could ever get another Todd Helton. He's no doubt the best Vol ever to play baseball at UT. But, we need players close to the caliber of him. Since Helton left, Burke has been the best UT player.

Now, Senzel is the best player since Burke. That's a pretty good gap in years between having top notch players/talent. Christian Stewart last season had a great year. He was a solid talent & his 1st round draft status shows it. He's tearing it up in class A ball this season.

Our cupboard hasn't been bare but it's not been an SEC talent filled roster either for the past few years. Something needs to done/changed but who knows what exactly. I Like Coach Serrano. Is he part of the problem? Probably so, but he's not THE problem.

 

[vol66]

I think Bruin means draft picks in HS...Neither Stewie or Senzel were drafted coming out of HS. VJax was, Serrano was but not highly enough to turn down college for it.

The pitchers we HAVE recruited that are even somewhat highly drafted, first 15-20 rounds or so have decided to go. It's been a back breaker because just one or two of those type guys staying could make a difference.

Even if we make Hoover, we don't have enough pitching to win more than one game, it's really a head scratcher because that's Serrano's wheel house, but it hasn't worked out here.

 

[BruinVol]

I think Bruin means draft picks in HS...Neither Stewie or Senzel were drafted coming out of HS. VJax was, Serrano was but not highly enough to turn down college for it.

The pitchers we HAVE recruited that are even somewhat highly drafted, first 15-20 rounds or so have decided to go. It's been a back breaker because just one or two of those type guys staying could make a difference.

Even if we make Hoover, we don't have enough pitching to win more than one game, it's really a head scratcher because that's Serrano's wheel house, but it hasn't worked out here.

Correct I was speaking about high profile hs draft prospects

 

[whobethis16]

Here's what I have for 2015...

Team BA .256, 938 AB, 120 R, 240 H, 38 2B, 6 3B, 21 HR, 97 BB, 226 SO, 26-37 SB-ATT

2016...

Team BA .262, 875 AB, 111 R, 229 H, 46 2B, 7 3B, 8 HR, 100 RBI, 76 BB, 209 SO, 28-42 SB

*3 SEC games left, 29 total last year

Sorry for the bump on this, but I've been extremely busy with life and didn't get a chance to respond. But here we are at the end, and I still believe overall our offense has been better this year than last.

2016
BA .261, AB 1012, R 136, H 264, 2B 58, 3B 8, HR 9, RBI 122, TB 365, SLG % .361, BB 97, HBP 33, SO 239, GDP 8, OB % .341, SF 14, SH 9, SB/ATT 38-54, PO 777, A 331, E 33, FLD % .971

2015
BA .256, AB 938, R 120, H 240, 2B 38, 3B 6, HR 21, RBI 112, TB 353, SLG % .376, BB 97, HBP 33, SO 226, GDP 16, OB % .345, SF 5, SH 26, SB/ATT 26-37, PO 750, A 277, E 31, FLD % .971

The thing that stands out to me is the average (keep in mind this year's team had to throw out a bunch of guys that probably shouldn't have gotten ABs this year because of the injuries, so that number would probably be higher if Moberg played all year), the total hits, and the runs. Doubles and triples were both up, walks and HBPs equal, more strikeouts (but again, you've got guys like Langhorne in there having to hit), OBP is almost equal, and this year grounded into only half the double plays as last year. That is huge.

Obviously there are individual stats that aren't as good (the HRs are the most obvious), but as an overall offense, this year's was much better, in my opinion.