Talent Comparison Game by Game 2014

#26
#26
Ill save you some time. Here is UT's schedule ranked by four years of Rivals recruiting averages.
 

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#29
#29
BeattieFeathers said:
Please this kind of analysis is so silly. Do you think Vegas cares? Good grief, these are the worst.....
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Please. Stop trying to set the bar and expectations lower than they should be. Your posts are so silly. Do you think anyone here cares? Good grief, your posts are the worst....
 
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#30
#30
BeattieFeathers said:
Well, it's silly. Number one, they have nfl prospects that were not rated highly at all coming out of high school. That right away invalidates anything anybody knows about Utah state. If their qb is healthy, he is one of the best in the nation. He was not rated highly. It's a bunch of nonsense. We don't even have many 2011 recruits still on the roster and no way they were truly rated that high in hindsight. Once you have the benefit of seeing players, what they were in high school is out! Do you think the nfl drafts players from rivals ratings? :eek:lol:
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Oh, wise one... please tell us that your great "experience" includes the understanding that its the consistency of the quality of players that results in a talent advantage for BCS schools over mid-majors.

They have 2 or 3 great players but then a significant drop off. They also benefit statistically from playing much weaker competition. WKU last year had two legit NFL prospects.

If 2 or 3 players beat you... then blame ineffective coaching and gameplanning.
 
#31
#31
BeattieFeathers said:
Vegas....put your money where your mouth is. Very dangerous game....
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Tell you what... you do that. Go place a bet on USU straight up or bet on them to cover.

UT is right now the MUCH more talented of those two teams. Its NOT close.

You mentioned a couple of NFL prospects on USU's roster. How many legit UT prospects do you think UT will field this fall?
 
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#32
#32
daj2576 said:
I hope I didn't come across as smug. Not my intent. I've just got all of this data handy and it is relatively effective at predicting outcomes.
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Right and if it is an accurate predictor 70% of the time then this is a 6-8 win team.
 
#35
#35
sjt18 said:
Right and if it is an accurate predictor 70% of the time then this is a 6-8 win team.
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Correct...give or take. Individually each game against a team in red is a 70% chance of a win, and green is a 30% chance for a win. In aggregate it means that there is about a 58% chance that UT wins 7 or more games.
 
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#36
#36
daj2576 said:
Ill save you some time. Here is UT's schedule ranked by four years of Rivals recruiting averages.
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Agreed! Here is what we look like in recruiting rankings against our opponents this year since 2011:

Rivals Rankings by Year
2011 2012 2013 2014

Tennessee #13 #17 #21 #5

UTAH St. #78 #117 #105 #106

Arkansas St.#96 #69 #108 #86

Oklahoma #14 #11 #15 #15

Georgia #5 #12 #12 #7

Florida #12 #3 #4 #8

UTC N/A N/A N/A N/A

Ole Miss #19 #40 #7 #19

Alabama #1 #1 #1 #1

USCjr #18 #19 #16 #16

Kentucky #62 #63 #29 #17

Missouri #48 #31 #41 #34

Vandy #71 #29 #19 #49

Note Bama #1 every year since 2011.

Oklahoma and UT are about even the past 4 years. Some HOPE!

:loco:

Tennesseeduke
 
#37
#37
TNHopeful505 said:
Not when the kids with the *'s are no longer here.

If you make this point in another 4 years, and we haven't lost over 50% of the classes in point, then it may be a valid way to look at things. But for today, it's not.

Luckily, the past two classes are still mostly all on campus, and will hopefully all contribute. Bringing in most of them as EE's go a long way for that.
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From what I can gather from signing classes since 2011 to 2014 we had approximately 103 sign Letters with 77 still on the team and 26 gone for various reasons. 75% still on team.

:hi:

Tennesseeduke
 
#39
#39
daj2576 said:
I hope I didn't come across as smug. Not my intent. I've just got all of this data handy and it is relatively effective at predicting outcomes.
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Not at all daj, you know I enjoy your work here :hi: I see your post stating there's a 58% chance of winning 7 or more games. What does that percentage go to for winning 6 or more? Thanks! (I'm horrible at math sorry)
 
#40
#40
tennesseeduke said:
From what I can gather from signing classes since 2011 to 2014 we had approximately 103 sign Letters with 77 still on the team and 26 gone for various reasons. 75% still on team.

:hi:

Tennesseeduke
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If you do this sort of evaluation long enough you tend to find that attrition washes out relatively evenly.
 
#41
#41
Catbone said:
Not at all daj, you know I enjoy your work here :hi: I see your post stating there's a 58% chance of winning 7 or more games. What does that percentage go to for winning 6 or more? Thanks! (I'm horrible at math sorry)
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It looks like this: The Probability of winning at least X number of the 12 games is Y (assuming my math is correct).

at least X = Y%
1 = 100%
2 = 99.97%
3 = 99.67%
4 = 98.11%
5 = 92.65%
6 = 79.63%
7 = 58.09%
8 = 33.35%
9 = 13.95%
10 = 3.9%
11 = 0.64%
12 = 0.05%
 
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#42
#42
My hope is that we now have a coach that will not only recruit but also make the most of the talent that we have. If CBJ can do that, the course is set in the right direction. It will take a year or two of easily handling the teams we overmatch, but the perception will return in a hurry. We will be back.
 
#43
#43
I don't post very often, but I want to now because this weekend I watched the USU v. Utah and USU v. USCw games from last year on demand out of curiousity. After doing so though, I can say the biggest thing that scares me with this game is the uncertainty of going up against a QB like Chuckie Keeton. I know, I know, "he's just one of three returning starters on offense", but I watched Chuckie Keeton make remarkable plays under pressure. And one thing no one can ever rank or effectively measure is composure in the face of chaos. Do note, besides CK, the other major returning starter is their left tackle, meaning he will most likely go head to head with Vereen.

Now consider in 2013 Tennessee gave up:

163(pass)/113(rush)/3 TD to Maty Mauk
134(pass)/84(rush)/2 TD to Tyler Murphy who, had yet to even attempt a pass at UF
161(pass)/78(rush)/2 TD to a crippled Connor Shaw
35 (pass)/214(rush)/3 TD to Nick Marshall
456(pass)/27(rush)/5 TD to Marcus Mariota

... Forgive me, but a playmaking, D/T QB that throws 1400 yards in five games... with a 70% completion rate... for 18 TD's... with only two INT's... and rushes for around 300 yards with a 4.6 40 time, scares the bejeezus out of me after the trauma of last year. So you know, 3/5 of these games were against Utah, USCw, and San Jose St. though. Believe me, I'm not saying Chuckie Keeton and Utah State are by any means equal in comparison to the above quarterbacks and teams from 2013. But I will say that Chuckie Keeton has the talent and potential to take advantage of the inexperience, rust, and acclimation that comes with any team's opener, especially Tennessee.

If 3/5 newcomers on defense are lineman, two being DT might I add, how much faster will the defense realistically be? Besides three DL, Maggitt, and Weatherd, every other starter is capable of blowing tackles and assignments like the debacle that was '13. I hope this won't be the case, but statistically speaking UT has had the train ran on them when it comes to D/T QB's. And imo, Chuckie Keeton could do it again. On the bright side however, it should be an early indication of how we might fare against the likes of Trevor Knight, Jeff Driskel, and Matty Mauk, all of which will run moderate paced versions of the spread. Sorry for the length.
 
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#44
#44
KoozieKing said:
I don't post very often, but I want to now because this weekend I watched the USU v. Utah and USU v. USCw games from last year on demand out of curiousity. After doing so though, I can say the biggest thing that scares me with this game is the uncertainty of going up against a QB like Chuckie Keeton. I know, I know, "he's just one of three returning starters on offense", but I watched Chuckie Keeton make remarkable plays under pressure. And one thing no one can ever rank or effectively measure is composure in the face of chaos. Do note, besides CK, the other major returning starter is their left tackle, meaning he will most likely go head to head with Vereen.

Now consider in 2013 Tennessee gave up:

163(pass)/113(rush)/3 TD to Maty Mauk
134(pass)/84(rush)/2 TD to Tyler Murphy who, had yet to even attempt a pass at UF
161(pass)/78(rush)/2 TD to a crippled Connor Shaw
35 (pass)/214(rush)/3 TD to Nick Marshall
456(pass)/27(rush)/5 TD to Marcus Mariota

... Forgive me, but a playmaking, D/T QB that throws 1400 yards in five games... with a 70% completion rate... for 18 TD's... with only two INT's... and rushes for around 300 yards with a 4.6 40 time, scares the bejeezus out of me after the trauma of last year. So you know, 3/5 of these games were against Utah, USCw, and San Jose St. though. Believe me, I'm not saying Chuckie Keeton and Utah State are by any means equal in comparison to the above quarterbacks and teams from 2013. But I will say that Chuckie Keeton has the talent and potential to take advantage of the inexperience, rust, and acclimation that comes with any team's opener, especially Tennessee.

If 3/5 newcomers on defense are lineman, two being DT might I add, how much faster will the defense realistically be? Besides three DL, Maggitt, and Weatherd, every other starter is capable of blowing tackles and assignments like the debacle that was '13. I hope this won't be the case, but statistically speaking UT has had the train ran on them when it comes to D/T QB's. And imo, Chuckie Keeton could do it again. On the bright side however, it should be an early indication of how we might fare against the likes of Trevor Knight, Jeff Driskel, and Matty Mauk, all of which will run moderate paced versions of the spread. Sorry for the length.
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You're missing a HUGE point here. Yes those numbers are accurate and taken without all information would assume CK is going to have a great game. And he may have one but here is the point, 4 out of those 5 teams were in the top 10. As good as CK was/is he is just one guy. US doesn't have a defense like UF. They don't have the juggernaut offense of AU. They don't have a team that even compares to Mizzou, much less Oregon. As a team, we are leagues above what they are. I am certain CK will have some great plays, but in the end we will beat US by at least 2 TDs. Anything less would be considered a let down.
 
#45
#45
tennesseeduke said:
Tennessee vs. Utah St.

Rivals teams recruiting rankings:

2011 UT #13 Utah St. #78
2012 UT #17 Utah St. #117
2013 UT #21 Utah St. #105
2014 UT #5 Utah St. #106

IMHO like last year when everyone was squawking about how tough Western Kentucky was going to be with Bobby Petrino, UT was way more talented and it proved out on the field. Same for our opener this year. This should give us some indicator for each game of talent vs. talent and coach vs. coach!

UT 42 vs. Utah St 17

I will try to do this game by game for the 2014 season.

:loco:

Tennesseeduke
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Duke, don't get discouraged by some of the feedback. I, for one, hope you do take the time to present this info for each team we play. Last year, I posted the same info (4 years of Rivals rankings) for the Oregon game just to show how we were even with them in talent but we all saw how that ended up. They had some REALLY GOOD talent at key skill positions and exposed us pretty badly in the 2nd half.

People are right, though, that if you have a lot of attrition, then it doesn't matter what your talent is ranked. However, that's why the ranking services and the NFL combine do what they do - to show who are the superior athletes - they don't ALWAYS get it right but they're usually on the money.

Finally, after reading the post on the incoming legacy class, especially the comments by Wharton, I don't expect there to be much fallout from class #118. CBJ is going to great lengths to recruit character in addition to athletic quality so the attrition thing is going to become less and less a factor. :good!:
 
#46
#46
BeattieFeathers said:
Look at last season. Some actually think that Tennessee had better players than Carolina. We don't win if Conner shaw doesn't get hurt.....probably. We beat them one out of 10 times and we were better that day, but we did not have the best players. The ratings say we did! Stupid.....
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I agree with you in regards to Carolina having the better team last year. However, you are incorrect in saying that UT won because Shaw was hurt. Connor Shaw did not get hurt until the end of the game after being shut down all day. With the exception of the long touchdown pass early in the game. Vols won the game fair and square and without any excuses of this guy was hurt or that guy was hurt.
 
#48
#48
TennesseeDuke, thanks for posting that. Although nothing is certain until we start the season, your post is interesting, and it is as good a measuring stick as anyone else has put on here.
 
#50
#50
ficklez said:
Two arrests. As in, the same number of tennessee players who were arrested in one day in February.
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