stock market was up today...

[Thunder Good-Oil]

I never said it was 3 billion units.



Tell me, from the article you posted, how in the hell do you get to 3 billion people with 7 million units (according to your article) and plus however many million more that they claimed were built, but not completed? Especially when you have a nation that has close to a 1.0 birth replacement rate and families are still struggling to have more than one child.

Make the math add up.

I never said that you said it was 3 billion units.

Parents are in most households, not just the 1 child. And grandparents.

You are using 7 million units that are available for purchase. I already pointed out that the Chinese people are buying 2nd and 3rd units as investments. They aren’t flipping them. They are holding them as investments.

 

[Rasputin_Vol]

You highlighted 7.2 million UNSOLD HOMES. That doesn’t account for how many Chinese would be living in each one and more significantly that only a fraction of empty units would be on the market. When the Chinese people have few alternative investment options and are buying 2nd and 3rd properties as investments they aren’t as likely to then sell them. Unsold homes also wouldn’t include homes under construction or projects that are committed to being built.

How many Chinese do you think can purchase 2-3 investment properties?

 

[midnight orange]

The Fed won't watch interest rates go anywhere close to that.

They may not have a choice. They are still subject to economic forces.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

I know I did. It still doesn't matter. How many times does 7.2 million go into 3 billion?

For s^^ts and giggles, lets assume there are 30 million unsold AND incomplete housing units. How many people per unit does that equal?

You keep ignoring the units being held as investments and only considering units available to be bought. The SUPPLY is 7 million. Obviously the demand is far more and therefore they have the enormous bubble. Where do you think that all of the rich Chinese are investing?

 

[Rasputin_Vol]

This is correct. The Chinese have painted themselves into a corner here.

The have near no external debt and still have a trade surplus. They still are the world's leading producer of stuff that the world needs, outside of energy and some food products. What could go wrong in the real estate market that would affect them from making widgets?

If anything, with the majority of the their debt being internal, they could possibly devalue their currency, making their exports cheaper, and then use the increased nominal revenues to pay off their debt. But see... here is the rub. Because the Chinese have shown thus far that they don't bailout their speculators when they make bad bets and they actually throw people in jail. Unlike here in America. So what will likely end up happening is that the real estate sector will crash, a few speculators will get wiped out, maybe a few banks will also bite the dust or take a hit and the rest of the economy will be fine.

They will still make widgets.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

How many Chinese do you think can purchase 2-3 investment properties?

A lot of the rich ones can own large developments.

Why don’t you argue with Fortune magazine or Reuters news service? You asked for my source and I provided exactly that. They published those stats and unlike Zero Hedge, they aren’t opinion pieces.

 

[Rasputin_Vol]

It isn’t 3 billion units. And I’m more likely to believe it since it was reported by Fortune and Reuters. Peter Zeihan believes the estimate as well.

You have to go with estimates since the CCP isn’t going to release the actual data. But they have huge empty or unfinished housing developments littering the landscape.

LOL...

While estimates for the number of vacant homes and apartments in China vary widely, experts believe a range between 65 million to 80 million units is reasonable. Keng seems to be indicating that’s just not the full iceberg.

OK, so lets roll with the 65-80 million number. No... lets make it 100 million just to round the numbers off.

How many times will 100 million (housing units) go into 3 billion (people)? You're telling me they expect 30 Chinese/unit?

Or, to use their "iceberg" analogy, even if 80 million represents 1/9 of the alleged total, that puts you at ~720 million units for 3 billion people (4.1 people/unit). 4.1 per unit in a country that is struggling with birth rates... and you are assuming that all 720 million are housing at least 4 people.

 

[Rasputin_Vol]

You keep ignoring the units being held as investments and only considering units available to be bought. The SUPPLY is 7 million. Obviously the demand is far more and therefore they have the enormous bubble. Where do you think that all of the rich Chinese are investing?

I'm taking it all into account. The unsold and the units that are incomplete.

 

[Rasputin_Vol]

A lot of the rich ones can own large developments.

How many? Throw a guess as to how many Chinese are speculating in the housing market.

Why don’t you argue with Fortune magazine or Reuters news service?

I don't believe most of what these guys print. My issue is with you for having an IQ that I would consider to be above room temperature and you not being able to do a simple back of the napkin calculation using the very numbers they provided in the linked article.

The math doesn't work out no matter how mad you get at me.

You asked for my source and I provided exactly that. They published those stats and unlike Zero Hedge, they aren’t opinion pieces.

Zero Hedge mirrors/reposts as many, if not more stories from other websites as they do offer op-eds.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

LOL...



OK, so lets roll with the 65-80 million number. No... lets make it 100 million just to round the numbers off.

How many times will 100 million (housing units) go into 3 billion (people)? You're telling me they expect 30 Chinese/unit?

Or, to use their "iceberg" analogy, even if 80 million represents 1/9 of the alleged total, that puts you at ~720 million units for 3 billion people (4.1 people/unit). 4.1 per unit in a country that is struggling with birth rates... and you are assuming that all 720 million are housing at least 4 people.

“While estimates for the number of vacant homes and apartments in China vary widely, experts believe a range between 65 million to 80 million units is reasonable. Keng seems to be indicating that’s just not the full iceberg.”

“Experts”. Who? That’s just a random comment without citing who the “experts” would be.

“Reasonable”. Meaning what? The most conservative estimates?

“Keng seems to be indicating that’s just not the full iceberg.” Translation: 65 million to 80 million units is NOT reasonable.

 

[Velo Vol]

The have near no external debt and still have a trade surplus. They still are the world's leading producer of stuff that the world needs, outside of energy and some food products. What could go wrong in the real estate market that would affect them from making widgets?

If anything, with the majority of the their debt being internal, they could possibly devalue their currency, making their exports cheaper, and then use the increased nominal revenues to pay off their debt. But see... here is the rub. Because the Chinese have shown thus far that they don't bailout their speculators when they make bad bets and they actually throw people in jail. Unlike here in America. So what will likely end up happening is that the real estate sector will crash, a few speculators will get wiped out, maybe a few banks will also bite the dust or take a hit and the rest of the economy will be fine.

They will still make widgets.

If you scrutinized China and Russia the same way you do the US, you'd be singing a much different tune.

 

[Rasputin_Vol]

“While estimates for the number of vacant homes and apartments in China vary widely, experts believe a range between 65 million to 80 million units is reasonable. Keng seems to be indicating that’s just not the full iceberg.”

“Experts”. Who? That’s just a random comment without citing who the “experts” would be.

“Reasonable”. Meaning what? The most conservative estimates?

“Keng seems to be indicating that’s just not the full iceberg.” Translation: 65 million to 80 million units is NOT reasonable.

So you posted this article as your "evidence" after I question your figures and then you come back and rip the very article you posted? LOL...

How many ‘vacant homes’ does China have right now? A former statistics official has an eye-opening prediction

China’s housing oversupply is far worse than previously reported, the country’s former statistics bureau deputy head says.

finance.yahoo.com

Now keep in mind... this is what YOU said just a few minutes ago...

It isn’t 3 billion units. And I’m more likely to believe it since it was reported by Fortune and Reuters. Peter Zeihan believes the estimate as well.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

How many? Throw a guess as to how many Chinese are speculating in the housing market.


I don't believe most of what these guys print. My issue is with you for having an IQ that I would consider to be above room temperature and you not being able to do a simple back of the napkin calculation using the very numbers they provided in the linked article.

The math doesn't work out no matter how mad you get at me.


Zero Hedge mirrors/reposts as many, if not more stories from other websites as they do offer op-eds.

I left Xi a message. Hopefully he’ll get back to me soon since the CCP isn’t sharing the data.

It said that 96% of those in urban areas own units.

The Chinese have millions of nouveau riche with few options for storing their wealth. Thus it goes into real estate. Therefore the bubble is spectacular.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

So you posted this article as your "evidence" after I question your figures and then you come back and rip the very article you posted? LOL...

How many ‘vacant homes’ does China have right now? A former statistics official has an eye-opening prediction

China’s housing oversupply is far worse than previously reported, the country’s former statistics bureau deputy head says.

finance.yahoo.com

Now keep in mind... this is what YOU said just a few minutes ago...

I pointed out that the line that you cherry picked and are using as evidence is vague. I didn’t rip the “article”.

 

[Rasputin_Vol]

I left Xi a message. Hopefully he’ll get back to me soon since the CCP isn’t sharing the data.

It said that 96% of those in urban areas own units.

The Chinese have millions of nouveau riche with few options for storing their wealth. Thus it goes into real estate. Therefore the bubble is spectacular.

I looked on Google to find out how many Chinese live in urban areas. Looks like roughly 65%. So with a population of 1.4 billion, that puts us at close to 900 million people that live in urban areas and 96% of them own at least one unit. So to be clear, out of just under 900 million folks, how many of that population do you think are able to own multiple housing units?

 

[Rasputin_Vol]

The Chinese have millions of nouveau riche with few options for storing their wealth. Thus it goes into real estate. Therefore the bubble is spectacular.

OK, let's roll with that. If these "nouveau rich" lose their shirts in the bubble, how would that affect the Chinese economy?

 

[BreatheUT]

This is correct. The Chinese have painted themselves into a corner here.

What would be their way out for their economy? War?

Personally I'd like to see the market correct itself in the US but that means recession and more lost jobs.

 

[Rasputin_Vol]

What would be their way out for their economy? War?.

Explain to me what the worst that could happen to China would be if the housing bubble did burst.

 

[BreatheUT]

Explain to me what the worst that could happen to China would be if the housing bubble did burst.

I'm suspecting a recession.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

I looked on Google to find out how many Chinese live in urban areas. Looks like roughly 65%. So with a population of 1.4 billion, that puts us at close to 900 million people that live in urban areas and 96% of them own at least one unit. So to be clear, out of just under 900 million folks, how many of that population do you think are able to own multiple housing units?

You keep harping on nailing down a precise number. That’s hardly the point - just you wanting to argue (after you needed a source and apparently and are upset that it was provided). The point is that the Chinese have WAY MORE housing supply that may never have demand catch up with. They aren’t slightly overbuilt. They are overbuilt probably by by considerably more than may EVER be required. Compound that with a population that is contracting more than anything in history and where are they headed? Their citizens’ wealth is tied up in unneeded housing which will have a ripple effect on their economy. Domestic consumption is often the biggest source of sustaining robust economies. There will be an enormous drag on that due to the destruction of wealth by the RE bag holders.

Another component of stimulating an economy is building infrastructure - but the “businesses” that do those projects are overwhelmed with debt. The Chinese economy won’t be sustained by building roads to nowhere, unnecessary production facilities, and things like more power generating infrastructure that isn’t needed.

That leaves exports as a way to prop up an economy. That is in a critical position of failing for the CCP central planners as well. The one child policy means that the resulting demo doesn’t have enough in the age range to crank out children fast enough to replace those that are aging out of the work force. Plus everybody is finding sources other than China for labor - places like Vietnam and India.

China is screwed. The CCP and their dictator are probably going to lose their system within the next decade.

 

[Velo Vol]

Hundreds of billions of dollars of loses in just two companies.

 

[norrislakevol]

The have near no external debt and still have a trade surplus. They still are the world's leading producer of stuff that the world needs, outside of energy and some food products. What could go wrong in the real estate market that would affect them from making widgets?

If anything, with the majority of the their debt being internal, they could possibly devalue their currency, making their exports cheaper, and then use the increased nominal revenues to pay off their debt. But see... here is the rub. Because the Chinese have shown thus far that they don't bailout their speculators when they make bad bets and they actually throw people in jail. Unlike here in America. So what will likely end up happening is that the real estate sector will crash, a few speculators will get wiped out, maybe a few banks will also bite the dust or take a hit and the rest of the economy will be fine.

They will still make widgets.

Most of our debt is internal too, owned by the American people. Doesn't mean it's a good thing at all. China also faces an aging population issue, worse than other countries.

 

[norrislakevol]

What would be their way out for their economy? War?

Personally I'd like to see the market correct itself in the US but that means recession and more lost jobs.

They might try war in desperation, but their economy will shrink regardless with an aging population and the mistakes they've made.

 

[Velo Vol]

Most of our debt is internal too, owned by the American people. Doesn't mean it's a good thing at all. China also faces an aging population issue, worse than other countries.

It stopped reporting its youth unemployment recently.

 

[05_never_again]

You keep harping on nailing down a precise number. That’s hardly the point - just you wanting to argue (after you needed a source and apparently and are upset that it was provided). The point is that the Chinese have WAY MORE housing supply that may never have demand catch up with. They aren’t slightly overbuilt. They are overbuilt probably by by considerably more than may EVER be required. Compound that with a population that is contracting more than anything in history and where are they headed? Their citizen’s wealth is tied up in unneeded housing which will have a ripple effect on their economy. Domestic consumption is often the biggest source of sustaining robust economy’s. There will be an enormous drag on that due to the destruction of wealth by the RE bag holders.

Another component of stimulating an economy is building infrastructure - but the “businesses” that do those projects are overwhelmed with debt. The Chinese economy won’t be sustained by building roads to nowhere, unnecessary production facilities, and things like more power generating infrastructure that isn’t needed.

That leaves exports as a way to prop up an economy. That is in a critical position of failing for the CCP central planners as well. The one child policy means that the resulting demo doesn’t have enough in the age range to crank out children fast enough to replace those that are aging out of the work force. Plus everybody is finding sources other than China for labor - places like Vietnam and India.

China is screwed. The CCP and their dictator are probably going to lose their system within the next decade.

You're arguing with a brick wall, man. That guy comes into threads, says you're wrong, demands evidence/support for your opinion, and when you provide it to him he scoffs and says you're stupid for believing that. It's pointless. He argues from ideology and will never change his mind.