Predicting the season with math

#1
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BerryRocksYourTop

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#1
I'm a week or so late with this post, but I'll spill my beans anyway. I'm a Mathematics major at Tennessee Tech, and I had quite a bit of free time this summer to try something I've had in my head for a long time. My goal was to predict every college football team's record before the season kicked off by using statistics. The formula for it is pretty simple at the moment (I don't account for team experience, years a coach has been at a school, etc...), so the results aren't too concrete but at least the formula tries. Without further ado, here's what the math says Tennessee should do this season.

Utah State
The numbers said this should be a blowout, and they were right.
Win. (1-0)

Arkansas State
Like we needed any help predicting this one.
Win. (2-0)

@Oklahoma
The numbers don't like us here. The formula picked Oklahoma to finish unbeaten, and our game against them to not be close; I hope it's wrong.
Loss. (2-1)

@Georgia
Closer than the Oklahoma loss, but still a loss for us.
Loss. (2-2)

Florida
The numbers don't like the Gators in Neyland as the streak ends here.
Win. (3-2)

Chattanooga
Win number four.
Win. (4-2)

@Ole Miss
Ole Miss wins, but is the worst team to beat us this season. I wouldn't be shocked if Tennessee comes out with a W.
Loss. (4-3)

Alabama
The numbers say we will take Alabama to the wire, but lose in the end.
Close loss. (4-4)

@South Carolina
Back to back close losses, in my opinion, is highly unlikely for Team 118 but that's what the numbers are saying.
Close Loss. (4-5)

Kentucky
Kentucky pulls the ups...just kidding.
Win. (5-5)

Mizzou
Bowl eligible? Yes.
Win. (6-5)

@Vandy
Gonna be a great day for the Vols in Neyland West.
Win. (7-5)

-Numbers Prediction-
Overall Record: (7-5)
SEC Record: (4-4)

Worst Case Scenario (When the formula assumes we lose every close game we play):

(7-5) (4-4)
Bowl game bound.

Best Case Scenario (When the formula assumes we win every close game we play):

(9-3) (6-2)
We beat Bammer and Spurrier, while dropping to Oklahoma, Georgia, and Ole Miss (I still don't see Ole Miss being a loss though).

Personally though: I think Alabama, Ole Miss, and Florida will be close games, and we enter 2015 as playoff contenders after finishing (9-4).
 
#8
#8
BerryRocksYourTop said:
I'm a week or so late with this post, but I'll spill my beans anyway. I'm a Mathematics major at Tennessee Tech, and I had quite a bit of free time this summer to try something I've had in my head for a long time. My goal was to predict every college football team's record before the season kicked off by using statistics. The formula for it is pretty simple at the moment (I don't account for team experience, years a coach has been at a school, etc...), so the results aren't too concrete but at least the formula tries. Without further ado, here's what the math says Tennessee should do this season.

Utah State
The numbers said this should be a blowout, and they were right.
Win. (1-0)

Arkansas State
Like we needed any help predicting this one.
Win. (2-0)

@Oklahoma
The numbers don't like us here. The formula picked Oklahoma to finish unbeaten, and our game against them to not be close; I hope it's wrong.
Loss. (2-1)

@Georgia
Closer than the Oklahoma loss, but still a loss for us.
Loss. (2-2)

Florida
The numbers don't like the Gators in Neyland as the streak ends here.
Win. (3-2)

Chattanooga
Win number four.
Win. (4-2)

@Ole Miss
Ole Miss wins, but is the worst team to beat us this season. I wouldn't be shocked if Tennessee comes out with a W.
Loss. (4-3)

Alabama
The numbers say we will take Alabama to the wire, but lose in the end.
Close loss. (4-4)

@South Carolina
Back to back close losses, in my opinion, is highly unlikely for Team 118 but that's what the numbers are saying.
Close Loss. (4-5)

Kentucky
Kentucky pulls the ups...just kidding.
Win. (5-5)

Mizzou
Bowl eligible? Yes.
Win. (6-5)

@Vandy
Gonna be a great day for the Vols in Neyland West.
Win. (7-5)

-Numbers Prediction-
Overall Record: (7-5)
SEC Record: (4-4)

Worst Case Scenario (When the formula assumes we lose every close game we play):

(7-5) (4-4)
Bowl game bound.

Best Case Scenario (When the formula assumes we win every close game we play):

(9-3) (6-2)
We beat Bammer and Spurrier, while dropping to Oklahoma, Georgia, and Ole Miss (I still don't see Ole Miss being a loss though).

Personally though: I think Alabama, Ole Miss, and Florida will be close games, and we enter 2015 as playoff contenders after finishing (9-4).
Click to expand...

what metrics are you putting into your alogrithm
 
#11
#11
vol_in_ar said:
what metrics are you putting into your alogrithm
Click to expand...

Composite recruiting averages over the past 5 years, coach W/L percentages, and team home/away percentages. Next year I plan on adding more variables to fine tune it, but it works for now. Its conference champion predictions seem to hold water, so I can't complain.
 
#12
#12
vanillagorilla said:
I got us going 6-6 according to my magic 8 ball.
Click to expand...

It's shocking how pessimistic so many are. We would have to lose every single game of consequence to end up 6-6. You don't think we are going to beat Vandy? Or USCe? Florida had a losingrecord last year aand play is at home. Bama looked terrible and we should have beat uga last year. Crazy. I'll be very disappointed if we don't win 8
 
#15
#15
chattavol420 said:
It's shocking how pessimistic so many are. We would have to lose every single game of consequence to end up 6-6. You don't think we are going to beat Vandy? Or USCe? Florida had a losingrecord last year aand play is at home. Bama looked terrible and we should have beat uga last year. Crazy. I'll be very disappointed if we don't win 8
Click to expand...

Well get ready to be disappointed. Our OL will get destroyed by SEC talent if they don't figure something out. Hopefully 1st game kinks that can get worked out. 7-5 at best, 6-6 most likely.
 
#20
#20
A variable often overlooked because it just cannot be predicted is how each team will come out emotionally.

UT should not have been one play away from beating LSU in 2010.

UT or opponent's playmakers being flat during some key games could be the difference between the Vols going 5 - 7 again or 8 - 4.
 
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