North Korea on the move

#126
#126
PKT_VOL said:
I view it much more about internal political power with respect to China. Having a very successful, free, and democratic Korea (what South Korea is right now) would spell trouble for the political system currently entrenched in China. Not to mention that it would be military/national security risk to have the US having technology, personal, and bases right over their border.

I don't think China would fight an all out war against the US as it is against their interest. However, I do think China will do everything in it's power to either keep a leash on the current North Korean regime or at the very least, keep a buffer between China and South Korea. I think they will threaten force and even use force if necessarily to acquire their goal but would fall short of all out war with the US. Then again, I think the US would do the same; it is in neither interest to have an all out war.

It will be interesting how it plays out.
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Agreed. But I think Chinese involvement would greatly depend on the conduct of the conflict. I.e., Krazy Kim uses his atomic arsenal and all bets are off on Chinese support. So the conflict really would be at the mercy of the most stable North Korean leaders and if they believe all is about to be lost.
 
#127
#127
PKT_VOL said:
Needless to say, I desperately want to visit North Korea.
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wut

PKT_VOL said:
However, I do think China will do everything in it's power to either keep a leash on the current North Korean regime or at the very least, keep a buffer between China and South Korea. I think they will threaten force and even use force if necessarily to acquire their goal but would fall short of all out war with the US. Then again, I think the US would do the same; it is in neither interest to have an all out war.
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Yes, a united, American-leaning Korea would be a thorn in China's Asian sphere of influence.
 
#129
#129
Grand Vol said:
Agreed. But I think Chinese involvement would greatly depend on the conduct of the conflict. I.e., Krazy Kim uses his atomic arsenal and all bets are off on Chinese support. So the conflict really would be at the mercy of the most stable North Korean leaders and if they believe all is about to be lost.
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The Chinese are not going to allow North Korea to do anything... only the US uses proxies and mercenaries (Saudi Arabia & Al Qaeda).
 
#130
#130
Rasputin_Vol said:
The Chinese are not going to allow North Korea to do anything... only the US uses proxies and mercenaries (Saudi Arabia & Al Qaeda).
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With the immature narcissist in charge, I'm not sure they have a choice.

And by immature narcissist, I do mean Kim. Have to clarify I'm not speaking of the US.
 
#131
#131
#VFL__ said:
So the question is..will Kim drop a bomb before his kingdom is eventually taken/ disassembled?
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I have little doubt he would try if he felt pressured. I am not sure that there wouldn't be a military coup d'etat beforehand to stop such an action (especially if those in coup think defeat is enviable).

Regardless, I would be willing to bet that South Korea/United States has top secret technology (both external and internal) in place to keep that from happening. Unless they have help from the Chinese, it wouldn't be able to come to fruition. JMO.
 
#132
#132
Grand Vol said:
Agreed. But I think Chinese involvement would greatly depend on the conduct of the conflict. I.e., Krazy Kim uses his atomic arsenal and all bets are off on Chinese support. So the conflict really would be at the mercy of the most stable North Korean leaders and if they believe all is about to be lost.
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Yeah. The Chinese, if they have any control of the situation, are not going to let them nuke anybody. China would not defend them in a nuclear strike.

I would be surprised if Chinese either don't already or are not actively eliminating the nuclear threat of North Korea in secret.
 
#134
#134
PKT_VOL said:
I would argue more than a "thorn", could be catastrophic for the regime, but you get the point.
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Other than North Korea, they don't exactly exert a great deal of influence in East Asia as it is. Most of the nations there are economic rivals of the PRC and one more nation aligned against them (a unified Korea under the same style as the South is now) isn't going to be as huge of a thorn economically. Even after the Koreans get the mess straightened out in the North.

But as you pointed out before, having US friendly listening posts and potential military exercises right on the Chinese border would cause some concern. But after the completion of the Korean War (assuming a South victory) there wouldn't be a great need for a large standing military force nor a significant US presence. I could see it more like Germany today with a limited number of troops, perhaps a brigade, and probably the two major air bases that are there now (Kunsan and Osan) with no more than a squadron or two assigned at each. So the military thorn would be really no different than the ones we already have in Japan and Taiwan (an educated assumption) and the Chinese would grumble, but wouldn't do much since they can also stand up intelligence gathering facilities to monitor us.

You are correct that it would be an interesting political situation with the Chinese attempting to gain dominance over a unified Korea.
 
#135
#135
PKT_VOL said:
Yep. North Korea is numbero uno on places to visit. Most fascinating place in the world.



I would argue more than a "thorn", could be catastrophic for the regime, but you get the point.
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Did you see the episode of vice when they went there?
 
#136
#136
PKT_VOL said:
Yep. North Korea is numbero uno on places to visit. Most fascinating place in the world.
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No doubt, if you're into that kind of thing. But you could be imprisoned, for little--if any--reason.
 
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