Next 8 games...

#26
#26
2-1 so far, remaining 5:

Arkansas
@ Florida
South Carolina
@ Vanderbilt
@ Ole Miss


At the start of this 8 game stretch Vols were picked to lose each of these 8 games, already 2-1 you have to be happy, but can they do even better? I think if the Vols could find a way to win 2 more of these next 5, to finish that 8 game stretch at 4-4, they'll set themselves up nicely for a strong finish to the season.

Rpiforecast has them favored in 10/13 games after this stretch, so 4-4 would put the Vols at 10-8(3-3) heading into that stretch, 10-3 to close the season would put them with an overall record of 20-11(12-6) and a projected RPI of 39, which would have them as a lock for the NCAAT.

Now, to be clear I'm not predicting this is what happens or saying I expect the Vols to make the big dance, because I most definitely do not. I'm just trying to show the path to the dance if they're going to do so, winning another 2+ games over these next 5 would be a great place to start.
 
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#27
#27
I'm just hoping for an NIT bid. With 7 of 12 spots filled with newcomers, the wheels could fall off quickly. Two years ago at this point Donnie had it rolling. He didn't have nearly as successful 2015 as he had 2014.
 

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#28
#28
bleedingTNorange said:
2-1 so far, remaining 5:

Arkansas
@ Florida
South Carolina
@ Vanderbilt
@ Ole Miss


At the start of this 8 game stretch Vols were picked to lose each of these 8 games, already 2-1 you have to be happy, but can they do even better? I think if the Vols could find a way to win 2 more of these next 5, to finish that 8 game stretch at 4-4, they'll set themselves up nicely for a strong finish to the season.

Rpiforecast has them favored in 10/13 games after this stretch, so 4-4 would put the Vols at 10-8(3-3) heading into that stretch, 10-3 to close the season would put them with an overall record of 20-11(12-6) and a projected RPI of 39, which would have them as a lock for the NCAAT.

Now, to be clear I'm not predicting this is what happens or saying I expect the Vols to make the big dance, because I most definitely do not. I'm just trying to show the path to the dance if they're going to do so, winning another 2+ games over these next 5 would be a great place to start.
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Winning both home games and getting one at Vandy or Ole Miss would be great. I guess Ole miss is more likely. I've got my "I was wrong about Barnes" thread ready to post if they get to the tournament.
 
#33
#33
Thunder Good-Oil said:
That SeniorDrill guy wouldn't post that Donnie looked very average once TN got into conference okay two years ago. :)
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peace at last and some of you guys are trying to draw him back in. Then you complain that he should be banned. I don't get it.
 
#34
#34
calban said:
peace at last and some of you guys are trying to draw him back in. Then you complain that he should be banned. I don't get it.
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He's got his Love of Donnie thread in Around the NCAA. I think he gets a time out if he brings the agenda into unrelated threads.
 
#37
#37
Looking at these next 5 games i could very easily see us going 5-0 to 1-4. These guys if anything has made SEC play more interesting at this point than i thought it would be.
 
#39
#39
Wow.

The Vols could open league play 2-0 for the first time since 2010 — when Bruce Pearl was still UT’s head coach — with a victory over the Razorbacks(11-2, 0-1 SEC) in the 6:30 p.m. game at Thompson-Boling Arena.
 
#41
#41
Last nights game sucks simply because we could've absolutely won that game. I'm not sure how many wins this team has it in but I fear at the end of the year we are gonna look back at games like this one and the UNC game and wish we'd have won a couple of those.
 
#42
#42
bleedingTNorange said:
Last nights game sucks simply because we could've absolutely won that game. I'm not sure how many wins this team has it in but I fear at the end of the year we are gonna look back at games like this one and the UNC game and wish we'd have won a couple of those.
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Ehh, happens every year. That's why I think it's silly when people talk about "must wins". At this point in the season, every game becomes a must-win.

Our problem right now is our lack of consistency due A) being freshmen B) our lineup is inconsistent.

We were up by 13 in the first half against Arkansas. We pulled out Alexander/Williams and replaced them with Schofield/Evans and as SOON as that happened, Arkansas took the lead.


I personally think Barnes need to do a better job with his lineups and timing. Sometimes it seems Barnes will make substitutes when a certain lineup is hot and one player messes up. I've seen it happen in a few games this year where he pulls a hot player/lineup due to one tiny messup.
 
#43
#43
iKrager said:
Ehh, happens every year. That's why I think it's silly when people talk about "must wins". At this point in the season, every game becomes a must-win.

Our problem right now is our lack of consistency due A) being freshmen B) our lineup is inconsistent.

We were up by 13 in the first half against Arkansas. We pulled out Alexander/Williams and replaced them with Schofield/Evans and as SOON as that happened, Arkansas took the lead.


I personally think Barnes need to do a better job with his lineups and timing. Sometimes it seems Barnes will make substitutes when a certain lineup is hot and one player messes up. I've seen it happen in a few games this year where he pulls a hot player/lineup due to one tiny messup.
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They ran a 14-point play?

Players get pulled for disregarding what they're told to do. It's pretty simple for them. Mistakes like missed shots aren't a problem. Not doing what they're coached to do is. I think that Barnes was upset with Schofield after MAKING a three that he didn't want him to take. Players don't get pulled if they're doing what they are told to do. The coach will lose the team if he isn't strict about requiring them to do what they're told to do. He preaches it, he emphasizes it, he'd lose respect if he stopped strictly enforcing that requirement... even if it disrupts a good run. Making the players adhere to what is expected of them will result in far more good runs.
 
#44
#44
iKrager said:
Ehh, happens every year. That's why I think it's silly when people talk about "must wins". At this point in the season, every game becomes a must-win.

Our problem right now is our lack of consistency due A) being freshmen B) our lineup is inconsistent.

We were up by 13 in the first half against Arkansas. We pulled out Alexander/Williams and replaced them with Schofield/Evans and as SOON as that happened, Arkansas took the lead.


I personally think Barnes need to do a better job with his lineups and timing. Sometimes it seems Barnes will make substitutes when a certain lineup is hot and one player messes up. I've seen it happen in a few games this year where he pulls a hot player/lineup due to one tiny messup.
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Our main problem was that Grant Williams is our only great big right now, and he gets tired. Might need to start milking the clock while he's on the bench (get a few basketballs toweled off during free throws, etc).
 
#45
#45
Lankykong said:
Our main problem was that Grant Williams is our only great big right now, and he gets tired. Might need to start milking the clock while he's on the bench (get a few basketballs toweled off during free throws, etc).
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This team plays their worst ball when milking the clock.
 
#47
#47
bleedingTNorange said:
Decide how this season is going to go IMO, sucks that we likely will be without Fulkerson for that stretch and Bone for some of it as well.

Per rpiforecast which uses Jeff Sagarin'a predictor model, the Vols are underdogs in their next 8 games, opposite of sports betting - resembles underdog per his model.

N Gonzaga -11.8
@ ETSU -3.4
@ Texas A&M -7.6
Arkansas -1.1
@ Florida -12.7
South Carolina -4.2
@ Vanderbilt -2.7
@ Ole Miss -0.5

IMO these 8 games will be the tone setter for how the season goes heading into a much easier second half of the SEC schedule. If the Vols could go 3-5 over the next 8 you have to take that as a major positive IMO.
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Thought now would be a nice time to bump this, the Vols sit at 3-4 with the final game at Ole Miss coming up...8 games these young Vols were underdogs in, 5 on the road, 1 on a neutral court and only 2 true home games, asking a lot of a very young squad. Add in the dismissal of your sixth man and the job got even tougher, but heading into the stretch most would've taken and ran win 3 wins, how quickly some seem to forget that.

If Burnett is out for Ole Miss this is an extremely winnable game, they've struggled to break 50 without him in the lineup the last 2 games. Stay focused, buy into the scout and play with the same intensity and care of the basketball as they did tonight and they can hit 4-4 for this stretch which I'm not sure anyone thought was possible.
 
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#49
#49
bleedingTNorange said:
Decide how this season is going to go IMO, sucks that we likely will be without Fulkerson for that stretch and Bone for some of it as well.

Per rpiforecast which uses Jeff Sagarin'a predictor model, the Vols are underdogs in their next 8 games, opposite of sports betting - resembles underdog per his model.

N Gonzaga -11.8
@ ETSU -3.4
@ Texas A&M -7.6
Arkansas -1.1
@ Florida -12.7
South Carolina -4.2
@ Vanderbilt -2.7
@ Ole Miss -0.5

IMO these 8 games will be the tone setter for how the season goes heading into a much easier second half of the SEC schedule. If the Vols could go 3-5 over the next 8 you have to take that as a major positive IMO.
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Vols go 3-5 yet it feels like a major fail, easily could've been 5-3 as Arkansas and Ole Miss especially were games that this team could've won.

So let's chop the rest of the season into 2 parts, the next 7 games:

Mississippi State 5.4
Kentucky -11.8
Kansas State -0.5
@ Auburn -0.6
@ Mississippi State -0.8
Ole Miss 5.4
Georgia 0.7


Sagarin has them going 3-4, if the goal is to have a winning season (16-15), then 3-4 would seemingly be the minimum this team needs over the next 7. If they can straighten things out and find some consistency I think 4-3 is very realistic, but if they don't I think 1-6 is also possible, with such a young team it's impossible to predict.
 
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