No. 6 Massachusetts Minutemen vs. No. 11 Iowa Hawkeyes or Tennessee Volunteers
Upset odds for Iowa: 78.4 percent
Upset odds for Tennessee: 70.1 percent
Apparently, the selection committee misinterpreted a memo stating that UMass had been seeded sixth in its conference tournament and instead took it as a directive for how to slot the Midwest Region. Not only is our model's power rating skeptical of the Minutemen, calling them the 48th-best team in the nation, but it says Iowa (14th) and Tennessee (21st) are just as badly underseeded. In other words, even without factoring in the model's "Secret Sauce" or specific matchups, either the Hawkeyes or Volunteers should be favored.