DG's Takeaways from the Mizzou Game

#1

DiderotsGhost

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#1
One week you're the SEC "Coach of the Year". The next week you're the worst coach in history. VolNation is fickle but we'll try to add some nuance.

The Kentucky game was an example of how a good coaching staff can somehow out-scheme their way to victory. This Missouri game is a wake up call that we still need more talent and depth at many positions to be competitive.

Why we beat Kentucky. The thing about Kentucky is that they have one of the best running attacks with Benny Snell, but their passing game sucks. They are one-dimensional. We gambled against the pass to shut down the run. It worked brilliantly. We held Snell in check (only about 80 yards) and they couldn't make us pay for it in the passing game.

Mizzou is more balanced. The Kentucky strategy didn't work against Mizzou, because Mizzou is much more balanced on offense. They can beat you in the run game or pass game. We gambled in the secondary for the 2nd week in a row, but it didn't work this time, because Mizzou's pass game is much better than Kentucky's. Drew Lock burned us.

Mizzou is underrated; Kentucky was overrated. This was an 8-2 team masquerading as a 6-4 team. The Kentucky game was stolen from them by the refs. South Carolina beat them in Columbia with a last second field goal. This is a Senior laden team with a QB that will get drafted into the NFL, an experienced O-line, and a tough D-line. Sagarin currently has them rated as the #17 team in the nation; ahead of Texas A&M (#18), Auburn (#19), Florida (#24), South Carolina (#35), and Kentucky (#38). People are let down because we beat a top 15 Kentucky team and lost to unranked Mizzou, but it's misleading. I think this Mizzou team is the 2nd best in the East and easily the most underrated SEC team right now.

O-line biggest reason for loss. Sure, we gave up 50 points, but the O-line was still the biggest reason for the loss. After holding up pretty well against Kentucky, we got manhandled by a very good Mizzou D-line. The O-line issues consistently put us in a bad spot on defense; whether it be through turnovers or giving Mizzou good field position.

79-48. This is the stat of the game IMO. It's the number of plays each team ran. Mizzou ran 31 more plays than us. We don't have enough depth on defense to deal with an offense that can't hold onto the ball.

The "D" played well early. Easy to try to blame the "D" for this loss given the 50 points on the board, but I think the above stat tells the story. Our D played extraordinarily well early in the game. They wore out. And they wore out because our offense couldn't move the ball and constantly put them in bad situations. We are still very thin in the D and Pruitt was able to win the last two games by shortening the game. But we couldn't do that this week.

Turnovers also killed us. The Chryst INT at the end of the 2nd half accounted for at least a 10-point swing, if not a 14-point swing. Maybe we still lose the game regardless, but that already changes it from a 33 point game to potentially a 19 point game, just based on 1 play.

Chryst did not play well. Chryst looked very rattled behind that horrid O-line. 2 interceptions and several poor throws. 7 for 19. Chryst is a good QB, but even a lot of good QBs struggle in that situation. I don't think people realize how extraordinary JG is. What JG has done this season behind that O-line is amazing.

JG vs Chryst. I think JG is a top 3 SEC QB. If there's any doubt that he's the best on the team, let's clear it up now. JG has a 64.5% completion percentage. Chryst has a 48.9% completion percentage. JG is throwing 1 INT per 109 passes. Chryst is throwing 1 INT per 24 passes. Chryst had a 55% completion percentage at Stanford, but is down to 49% here. None of this is meant to knock Chryst; the bigger problems start at the O-line. Rather, I think this showcases just how difficult it is to be a QB behind an O-line like this. And how extraordinarily well JG has played this season.

We need more help at O-line. If we land the recruiting class we're expected to, help is on the way. Though, it may take till Year 3 till we see a big leap forward.

We need more depth on defense. Also can only be fixed with recruiting.

Bowl game on the line versus Vandy. We're 5-6 and Vandy is 5-6. This game will determine which team goes to a bowl game. It'll be tough, but I'm hoping we can pull it off. Though, if you told me 3 weeks ago we'd make a bowl game if we beat Vandy, I'd taken that situation in a heartbeat.

That's all I got this week. Ready to move on.

GBO!
 
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#3
#3
The knock I will put on the defense is our first down defense.

We were not good and they were able to stay ahead of the chains on later downs. That really stressed out def out.

Conversely we just couldn't get any first downs to stay on the field.

Really this game mirrored the WVU game. Great qb with options at the skill positions. And a good enough front on defense.

It was a bad matchup.

JG is our qb. Need him back.
 
#5
#5
Bright spot of the night. Bryce Thompson. That dude is a gamer. Started jumping some slant routes, almost had a pick 6 and kickoff return td. There’s another 14.

And didn’t JG get hurt the week before Vandy last year too? Seems like he didn’t practice all week, but played against Vandy. Similar thing happening this year?
 
#6
#6
Really this game mirrored the WVU game. Great qb with options at the skill positions. And a good enough front on defense.

It was a bad matchup.

I agree. Felt very similar. Though, I do think if JG hadn't gotten knocked of the game, it would've at least been closer this time. We still probably lose but more like a 40-30 game than a 50-17 game. But our secondary got torched in both games.

Pruitt has gambled on defense a lot this season knowing that it's necessary to win and it's worked against Auburn and Kentucky; did not work against Mizzou or West Virginia. I think both Mizzou and WV's offenses were just too good and too balanced for that strategy to work. Stidham and Kentucky's QB (is it Wilson?) couldn't make us pay, but Grier and Lock could.
 
#7
#7
I agree. Felt very similar. Though, I do think if JG hadn't gotten knocked of the game, it would've at least been closer this time. We still probably lose but more like a 40-30 game than a 50-17 game. But our secondary got torched in both games.

Pruitt has gambled on defense a lot this season knowing that it's necessary to win and it's worked against Auburn and Kentucky; did not work against Mizzou or West Virginia. I think both Mizzou and WV's offenses were just too good and too balanced for that strategy to work. Stidham and Kentucky's QB (is it Wilson?) couldn't make us pay, but Grier and Lock could.
Agree. I picked this game to be a shoot out for those reasons. Was counting on jg's and the o line's improvement to be the difference.

Obviously that didn't pan out
 
#11
#11
Thanks for the spot on reality check.Unusual for Vol nation-the cold hard facts.

I told some coworkers pre season to watch the WVa game and that will be the story for Mizzou too since they seemed to similar to me.

I hate to see us lose, but I’ve seen this one coming and it makes it easier to choke it down.
 
#13
#13
I agree. Felt very similar. Though, I do think if JG hadn't gotten knocked of the game, it would've at least been closer this time. We still probably lose but more like a 40-30 game than a 50-17 game. But our secondary got torched in both games.

Pruitt has gambled on defense a lot this season knowing that it's necessary to win and it's worked against Auburn and Kentucky; did not work against Mizzou or West Virginia. I think both Mizzou and WV's offenses were just too good and too balanced for that strategy to work. Stidham and Kentucky's QB (is it Wilson?) couldn't make us pay, but Grier and Lock could.
What are your thoughts on Vandy. How do we match up against them? I've not watched them, but I think Mason likes to run the ball a lot too.
 
#14
#14
Obviously, we lost both sides of the line of scrimmage.

I was surprised that the MO O-line was that senior and that dominant. Lock was able to have a spot of tea while awaiting someone to come open.
 
#15
#15
I am disappointed not because we lost but how we lost.

I remember arguing with a few during the off-season that this was going to be a struggle. We were looking at a 3 to 4 year rebuild. The response was if it takes 3 to 4 years we have the wrong coach. Well he may prove to be the wrong guy but this team is lacking SEC talent at some positions and experience at many more. A scheme doesn't fix those issues.
 
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#16
#16
Good analysis but I don't personally see Guarantano in the top 3 in the conference.

Tua and Lock are obviously better and I think Fromm, Bentley, probably Shumur are better at the more nuanced aspects of the position. Things like anticipation, ball placement, touch, pre reads, etc.

Haven't piled on him in the great Guarantano-Chryst Schism of 2018 as I have felt JG is clearly better and yesterday cemented it. That being said, I dont think he is anything near an elite QB.

The O line and D line were embarrassing once gain for the Vols yesterday. Give a QB like Lock time and give him 31 more plays due to an inefficient offense and there is no way a flawed team like the Vols can win.

They will have to play near perfect again next week against Vandy to win and I dont think they have it in them to do so.
 
#17
#17
One week you're the SEC "Coach of the Year". The next week you're the worst coach in history. VolNation is fickle but we'll try to add some nuance.

The Kentucky game was an example of how a good coaching staff can somehow out-scheme their way to victory. This Missouri game is a wake up call that we still need more talent and depth at many positions to be competitive.

Why we beat Kentucky. The thing about Kentucky is that they have one of the best running attacks with Benny Snell, but their passing game sucks. They are one-dimensional. We gambled against the pass to shut down the run. It worked brilliantly. We held Snell in check (only about 80 yards) and they couldn't make us pay for it in the passing game.

Mizzou is more balanced. The Kentucky strategy didn't work against Mizzou, because Mizzou is much more balanced on offense. They can beat you in the run game or pass game. We gambled in the secondary for the 2nd week in a row, but it didn't work this time, because Mizzou's pass game is much better than Kentucky's. Drew Lock burned us.

Mizzou is underrated; Kentucky was overrated. This was an 8-2 team masquerading as a 6-4 team. The Kentucky game was stolen from them by the refs. South Carolina beat them in Columbia with a last second field goal. This is a Senior laden team with a QB that will get drafted into the NFL, an experienced O-line, and a tough D-line. Sagarin currently has them rated as the #17 team in the nation; ahead of Texas A&M (#18), Auburn (#19), Florida (#24), South Carolina (#35), and Kentucky (#38). People are let down because we beat a top 15 Kentucky team and lost to unranked Mizzou, but it's misleading. I think this Mizzou team is the 2nd best in the East and easily the most underrated SEC team right now.

O-line biggest reason for loss. Sure, we gave up 50 points, but the O-line was still the biggest reason for the loss. After holding up pretty well against Kentucky, we got manhandled by a very good Mizzou D-line. The O-line issues consistently put us in a bad spot on defense; whether it be through turnovers or giving Mizzou good field position.

79-48. This is the stat of the game IMO. It's the number of plays each team ran. Mizzou ran 31 more plays than us. We don't have enough depth on defense to deal with an offense that can't hold onto the ball.

The "D" played well early. Easy to try to blame the "D" for this loss given the 50 points on the board, but I think the above stat tells the story. Our D played extraordinarily well early in the game. They wore out. And they wore out because our offense couldn't move the ball and constantly put them in bad situations. We are still very thin in the D and Pruitt was able to win the last two games by shortening the game. But we couldn't do that this week.

Turnovers also killed us. The Chryst INT at the end of the 2nd half accounted for at least a 10-point swing, if not a 14-point swing. Maybe we still lose the game regardless, but that already changes it from a 33 point game to potentially a 19 point game, just based on 1 play.

Chryst did not play well. Chryst looked very rattled behind that horrid O-line. 2 interceptions and several poor throws. 7 for 19. Chryst is a good QB, but even a lot of good QBs struggle in that situation. I don't think people realize how extraordinary JG is. What JG has done this season behind that O-line is amazing.

JG vs Chryst. I think JG is a top 3 SEC QB. If there's any doubt that he's the best on the team, let's clear it up now. JG has a 64.5% completion percentage. Chryst has a 48.9% completion percentage. JG is throwing 1 INT per 109 passes. Chryst is throwing 1 INT per 24 passes. Chryst had a 55% completion percentage at Stanford, but is down to 49% here. None of this is meant to knock Chryst; the bigger problems start at the O-line. Rather, I think this showcases just how difficult it is to be a QB behind an O-line like this. And how extraordinarily well JG has played this season.

We need more help at O-line. If we land the recruiting class we're expected to, help is on the way. Though, it may take till Year 3 till we see a big leap forward.

We need more depth on defense. Also can only be fixed with recruiting.

Bowl game on the line versus Vandy. We're 5-6 and Vandy is 5-6. This game will determine which team goes to a bowl game. It'll be tough, but I'm hoping we can pull it off. Though, if you told me 3 weeks ago we'd make a bowl game if we beat Vandy, I'd taken that situation in a heartbeat.

That's all I got this week. Ready to move on.

GBO!
I agree with everything stated. I wish fans weren’t so quick to point out the negatives and paint the picture that this ram hasn’t improved what so ever because they certainly have.
 
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#18
#18
Good analysis but I don't personally see Guarantano in the top 3 in the conference.

Tua and Lock are obviously better and I think Fromm, Bentley, probably Shumur are better at the more nuanced aspects of the position. Things like anticipation, ball placement, touch, pre reads, etc..

I wouldn't call JG "elite", but he's better than Bentley and Shurmur IMO. His stats are mostly better and that's playing behind an O-line that's significantly worse. Take a look at what happened to Chryst's stats versus his stats at Stanford and you get a very good sense of how much this O-line impacts QB play. For Chryst, it's made his accuracy fall by 6 percentage points. Last season, Chryst threw 1 INT every 36 attempts. This season it's 1 INT per 24 attempts. And Chryst should theoretically be better since he has another year of experience.

Statistically, JG is already about the 4th or 5th best QB in the SEC. Once you factor in the O-line impact (which you can see obviously in Chryst's stats), it's not difficult to conclude that JG could be in the top 3 SEC QBs. He's behind Tua for sure, but he's up there with Fromm and Lock. His stats are actually pretty similar to Lock's, only with an O-line that significantly worse.
 
#19
#19
I agree. Felt very similar. Though, I do think if JG hadn't gotten knocked of the game, it would've at least been closer this time. We still probably lose but more like a 40-30 game than a 50-17 game. But our secondary got torched in both games.

Pruitt has gambled on defense a lot this season knowing that it's necessary to win and it's worked against Auburn and Kentucky; did not work against Mizzou or West Virginia. I think both Mizzou and WV's offenses were just too good and too balanced for that strategy to work. Stidham and Kentucky's QB (is it Wilson?) couldn't make us pay, but Grier and Lock could.

I think it is easy to blame the secondary but they are left on an island with no pass rush. Not even Primetime can lock down a receiver that long. Sure some mistakes were made but between Taylor and Thompson I have hope for that group in the future.

Now the front 7 on defense is another story. For the most part say one or two guys they aren’t SEC quality. They give their all for TN (Bain) but it is obvious they are out of their league...they don’t have the athletic ability to make the plays when they are in position. One other thing that drove me crazy was the missed tackles by the linebackers. Bituli might be the only one in the bunch that is SEC quality. DKjr just isn’t the same post injury and I haven’t been impressed with Ignont or Reid.

As always I enjoyed your post game write up. You don’t always find level heads on VN.
 
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#20
#20
One week you're the SEC "Coach of the Year". The next week you're the worst coach in history. VolNation is fickle but we'll try to add some nuance.

The Kentucky game was an example of how a good coaching staff can somehow out-scheme their way to victory. This Missouri game is a wake up call that we still need more talent and depth at many positions to be competitive.

Why we beat Kentucky. The thing about Kentucky is that they have one of the best running attacks with Benny Snell, but their passing game sucks. They are one-dimensional. We gambled against the pass to shut down the run. It worked brilliantly. We held Snell in check (only about 80 yards) and they couldn't make us pay for it in the passing game.

Mizzou is more balanced. The Kentucky strategy didn't work against Mizzou, because Mizzou is much more balanced on offense. They can beat you in the run game or pass game. We gambled in the secondary for the 2nd week in a row, but it didn't work this time, because Mizzou's pass game is much better than Kentucky's. Drew Lock burned us.

Mizzou is underrated; Kentucky was overrated. This was an 8-2 team masquerading as a 6-4 team. The Kentucky game was stolen from them by the refs. South Carolina beat them in Columbia with a last second field goal. This is a Senior laden team with a QB that will get drafted into the NFL, an experienced O-line, and a tough D-line. Sagarin currently has them rated as the #17 team in the nation; ahead of Texas A&M (#18), Auburn (#19), Florida (#24), South Carolina (#35), and Kentucky (#38). People are let down because we beat a top 15 Kentucky team and lost to unranked Mizzou, but it's misleading. I think this Mizzou team is the 2nd best in the East and easily the most underrated SEC team right now.

O-line biggest reason for loss. Sure, we gave up 50 points, but the O-line was still the biggest reason for the loss. After holding up pretty well against Kentucky, we got manhandled by a very good Mizzou D-line. The O-line issues consistently put us in a bad spot on defense; whether it be through turnovers or giving Mizzou good field position.

79-48. This is the stat of the game IMO. It's the number of plays each team ran. Mizzou ran 31 more plays than us. We don't have enough depth on defense to deal with an offense that can't hold onto the ball.

The "D" played well early. Easy to try to blame the "D" for this loss given the 50 points on the board, but I think the above stat tells the story. Our D played extraordinarily well early in the game. They wore out. And they wore out because our offense couldn't move the ball and constantly put them in bad situations. We are still very thin in the D and Pruitt was able to win the last two games by shortening the game. But we couldn't do that this week.

Turnovers also killed us. The Chryst INT at the end of the 2nd half accounted for at least a 10-point swing, if not a 14-point swing. Maybe we still lose the game regardless, but that already changes it from a 33 point game to potentially a 19 point game, just based on 1 play.

Chryst did not play well. Chryst looked very rattled behind that horrid O-line. 2 interceptions and several poor throws. 7 for 19. Chryst is a good QB, but even a lot of good QBs struggle in that situation. I don't think people realize how extraordinary JG is. What JG has done this season behind that O-line is amazing.

JG vs Chryst. I think JG is a top 3 SEC QB. If there's any doubt that he's the best on the team, let's clear it up now. JG has a 64.5% completion percentage. Chryst has a 48.9% completion percentage. JG is throwing 1 INT per 109 passes. Chryst is throwing 1 INT per 24 passes. Chryst had a 55% completion percentage at Stanford, but is down to 49% here. None of this is meant to knock Chryst; the bigger problems start at the O-line. Rather, I think this showcases just how difficult it is to be a QB behind an O-line like this. And how extraordinarily well JG has played this season.

We need more help at O-line. If we land the recruiting class we're expected to, help is on the way. Though, it may take till Year 3 till we see a big leap forward.

We need more depth on defense. Also can only be fixed with recruiting.

Bowl game on the line versus Vandy. We're 5-6 and Vandy is 5-6. This game will determine which team goes to a bowl game. It'll be tough, but I'm hoping we can pull it off. Though, if you told me 3 weeks ago we'd make a bowl game if we beat Vandy, I'd taken that situation in a heartbeat.

That's all I got this week. Ready to move on.

GBO!

Gold as usual DG.
 
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#21
#21
What are your thoughts on Vandy. How do we match up against them? I've not watched them, but I think Mason likes to run the ball a lot too.
Unfortunately Vandy is similar to Mizzou in that they can run very well and they have a nice passing attack. I absolutely hate it but that spells bad news for my Vols.
 
#22
#22
vandy opens as a 4 point fav.Good running back,good passing qb.We canopen a can of whoop on the commode doors by sending a lb or safety or a run blitz on every down.Let cjp and cks and the other defensive coaches do line slants,whatever,and don't let those bast..ds breathe ever.Make their ol have their heads on swivels trying to figure wher the hell everyone is coming from.
 
#23
#23
One week you're the SEC "Coach of the Year". The next week you're the worst coach in history. VolNation is fickle but we'll try to add some nuance.

The Kentucky game was an example of how a good coaching staff can somehow out-scheme their way to victory. This Missouri game is a wake up call that we still need more talent and depth at many positions to be competitive.

Why we beat Kentucky. The thing about Kentucky is that they have one of the best running attacks with Benny Snell, but their passing game sucks. They are one-dimensional. We gambled against the pass to shut down the run. It worked brilliantly. We held Snell in check (only about 80 yards) and they couldn't make us pay for it in the passing game.

Mizzou is more balanced. The Kentucky strategy didn't work against Mizzou, because Mizzou is much more balanced on offense. They can beat you in the run game or pass game. We gambled in the secondary for the 2nd week in a row, but it didn't work this time, because Mizzou's pass game is much better than Kentucky's. Drew Lock burned us.

Mizzou is underrated; Kentucky was overrated. This was an 8-2 team masquerading as a 6-4 team. The Kentucky game was stolen from them by the refs. South Carolina beat them in Columbia with a last second field goal. This is a Senior laden team with a QB that will get drafted into the NFL, an experienced O-line, and a tough D-line. Sagarin currently has them rated as the #17 team in the nation; ahead of Texas A&M (#18), Auburn (#19), Florida (#24), South Carolina (#35), and Kentucky (#38). People are let down because we beat a top 15 Kentucky team and lost to unranked Mizzou, but it's misleading. I think this Mizzou team is the 2nd best in the East and easily the most underrated SEC team right now.

O-line biggest reason for loss. Sure, we gave up 50 points, but the O-line was still the biggest reason for the loss. After holding up pretty well against Kentucky, we got manhandled by a very good Mizzou D-line. The O-line issues consistently put us in a bad spot on defense; whether it be through turnovers or giving Mizzou good field position.

79-48. This is the stat of the game IMO. It's the number of plays each team ran. Mizzou ran 31 more plays than us. We don't have enough depth on defense to deal with an offense that can't hold onto the ball.

The "D" played well early. Easy to try to blame the "D" for this loss given the 50 points on the board, but I think the above stat tells the story. Our D played extraordinarily well early in the game. They wore out. And they wore out because our offense couldn't move the ball and constantly put them in bad situations. We are still very thin in the D and Pruitt was able to win the last two games by shortening the game. But we couldn't do that this week.

Turnovers also killed us. The Chryst INT at the end of the 2nd half accounted for at least a 10-point swing, if not a 14-point swing. Maybe we still lose the game regardless, but that already changes it from a 33 point game to potentially a 19 point game, just based on 1 play.

Chryst did not play well. Chryst looked very rattled behind that horrid O-line. 2 interceptions and several poor throws. 7 for 19. Chryst is a good QB, but even a lot of good QBs struggle in that situation. I don't think people realize how extraordinary JG is. What JG has done this season behind that O-line is amazing.

JG vs Chryst. I think JG is a top 3 SEC QB. If there's any doubt that he's the best on the team, let's clear it up now. JG has a 64.5% completion percentage. Chryst has a 48.9% completion percentage. JG is throwing 1 INT per 109 passes. Chryst is throwing 1 INT per 24 passes. Chryst had a 55% completion percentage at Stanford, but is down to 49% here. None of this is meant to knock Chryst; the bigger problems start at the O-line. Rather, I think this showcases just how difficult it is to be a QB behind an O-line like this. And how extraordinarily well JG has played this season.

We need more help at O-line. If we land the recruiting class we're expected to, help is on the way. Though, it may take till Year 3 till we see a big leap forward.

We need more depth on defense. Also can only be fixed with recruiting.

Bowl game on the line versus Vandy. We're 5-6 and Vandy is 5-6. This game will determine which team goes to a bowl game. It'll be tough, but I'm hoping we can pull it off. Though, if you told me 3 weeks ago we'd make a bowl game if we beat Vandy, I'd taken that situation in a heartbeat.

That's all I got this week. Ready to move on.

GBO!
Good analysis. Thanks. Interesting that Pruitt seemed to question either the run-play calling or the QB ability to read the D after the game. Something like "When we have six to block their seven, we don't need to be running the ball."
 
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#25
#25
Living in St. Louis, I get coverage on Missouri every freaking day. Your description of them as a 8-2 team parading as a 6-4 team is very accurate, IMO. They're definitely the 2nd best team in the SEC-E, and I might even go as far as to say they may be the 3rd or 4th best team in the league. Bama aside, I think LSU would probably beat them, but I think they's hold their own pretty well against the rest of the west.
 

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