Derek Barnett vs Joey Bosa & How Barnett is the Most Underrated Player in My Lifetime

#51
#51
Daloth said:
I actually considered this but after you and a few others suggested it I decided I would give it a shot. I'm e-mailing it to Saturday Down South's Football Analyst Nick Cole, Paul Finebaum, Clay Travis, and ESPN's Edward Aschoff. All four are big enough to hit a large audience, but not so big like ESPN directly that they'd simply ignore any e-mail they get.

I guess worst case scenario I could put it on Bleacher Report.
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Good for you! Excellent analysis and very well written.
 
#55
#55
Great post OP. I agree that Barnett is a great player and will be a future NFL star. However, there are some points you made in your argument that could be disputed. For one, the post is largely apples and oranges. The number of tackles comparison can be totally misleading in a couple of ways... one, it could mean that the defense is on the field a lot more than they should be. With Barnett, we've either had no offense or a hurry-up, and in both cases, he spent a lot of time on the field. Second, some of the defensive linemen you mentioned in comparison played much of their time instead at defensive tackle (not Bosa), and tackles, especially in a 3-4, aren't going to have nearly the volume of tackles as a defensive end. Also, some of the DEs you mentioned (again, not Bosa) were not Day 1 starters like Barnett, so career numbers will be skewed. Again, he's a great talent, but numbers can't always tell the whole story to one individual's total contribution or presence on the field. I'd love to see how his numbers matched up with the specific teams we've played... You also mentioned his stats in comparison to Shaq Lawson... keep in mind that Lawson only started once his Sophomore year and didn't start and play 'full-time' until his junior year, but he still got drafted in the first round..
 
#56
#56
Rishvol said:
Have you gotten any replies on those e-mails?
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None unfortunately. If I dont get a response within a week or so I'll probably just turn it into an article for Bleacher Report. At least that way other fan bases can see this insanity.



BigOrangeLoyalist said:
Great post OP. I agree that Barnett is a great player and will be a future NFL star. However, there are some points you made in your argument that could be disputed. For one, the post is largely apples and oranges. The number of tackles comparison can be totally misleading in a couple of ways... one, it could mean that the defense is on the field a lot more than they should be. With Barnett, we've either had no offense or a hurry-up, and in both cases, he spent a lot of time on the field. Second, some of the defensive linemen you mentioned in comparison played much of their time instead at defensive tackle (not Bosa), and tackles, especially in a 3-4, aren't going to have nearly the volume of tackles as a defensive end. Also, some of the DEs you mentioned (again, not Bosa) were not Day 1 starters like Barnett, so career numbers will be skewed. Again, he's a great talent, but numbers can't always tell the whole story to one individual's total contribution or presence on the field. I'd love to see how his numbers matched up with the specific teams we've played... You also mentioned his stats in comparison to Shaq Lawson... keep in mind that Lawson only started once his Sophomore year and didn't start and play 'full-time' until his junior year, but he still got drafted in the first round..
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On comparing different teams/styles/conferences
The sad part about different teams is, you can never have a straight 100% comparison, but you can at least get close. You have to account for the fact that different defenses, offenses, and conferences help and hinder stats in some way, but without going into literally decades of information on percentages of tackles/sacks/turnovers/pass deflections compared to defensive and offensive styles and conferences there's no way to do it other than to just compare the numbers. And I really don't think there's any way to get all of that information to be accurate because we don't have things like recruiting rankings widely available before 2004 or so, so we can't even compare average conference strength adequately.

I know Deforrest Buckner for example has so many tackles because of Oregon's offense, but that doesn't really take away how impressive 83 total tackles and 10.5 sacks in 13 games for a D lineman is. Now, if we wanted to say he had a year with 10 more assisted tackles than solo tackles as something negative we potentially could, because that implies the defense is the key to his success, not the offense. Or we could say he was learning the defense/not playing as much until his junior year where he exploded onto the scene for 72 total tackles after averaging roughly 40 tackles in his first two years. It's just damn near impossible to compare these guys straight up 100% without them being on the same team, or at least playing in the same conference and having multiple similar opponents.

However, my bias towards the SEC probably does show as I believe what Barnett and Myles Garrett are doing in the SEC at such a young age is far more difficult than anything Bosa or any other AP all american did last year.

On the entire D line
As for different positions, yes D tackles and Defensive Ends are hard to compare stat wise, but the AP All Americans only select 4 defensive ends a year, and with most of the best D linemen playing multiple positions I just included every D line position in those numbers to get a wide range of data (I even did research on several linebackers because I wanted to see D line to linebacker ratio on the best defenses/teams, all I found was a 7/10 linebacker will have 25 more tackles than a 10/10 defensive lineman on the same team, and a 10/10 linebacker will have more total tackles and be involved in more key plays in 8 games than most lineman will be in in a 3 year career) After all, David Pollack wasn't a D end originally, but his first year at the position was arguably the best single D end season we've ever seen, so limiting the comparison to just D ends would harm the range I feel.

On individual seasons (Shaq Lawson example)
However, for guys like Shaq Lawson, what I did was as fair as you can get. When I say these guys have played "x years" I don't mean they were on the team. I mean they played in at least 11 games per season, with few exceptions. Lawson, for example, played in 13, 12, and 15 games in his three years. If he wasn't good enough at the time to play more than he did in those games then that in of itself is telling, because as we've seen in Barnett, Garret, and Bosa, playing young and at an elite level is not that outrageous for players of this caliber. The only terrible part is that you can't account for injuries or playing at less than full health, which I'm sure all of these players have done at least once in their career.

In fact, in Lawson's "breakout" season as a junior, he had 15 games to put up numbers and still managed to barely pass Barnett's 13 game freshman season in Sacks and TFL, and lose dominantly in tackles, pass deflections, and turnovers caused. (I'm actually really surprised by Lawson's numbers. In his career he's only caused one turnover and only had one pass deflection. But both Clemson and the data bases I used say the same thing.)

Two games may not seem like much, but if Barnett played in two more his freshman season the numbers suggest he would put up 1.5 more sacks, 3 more TFL, and about 10.5 more tackles, enough to put him ahead of or tie Shaq Lawson in every category... as a junior and three years in a defense on a national title contender.

The real big knock on Barnett
The absolute biggest thing Barnett has got to work on is something he has less control over than anything else. Turnovers.

When you consider the volume of plays he's involved in its really telling how few turnovers he has caused in two years. He has forced a fumble and had two fumble recoveries. For comparison, Garret has had 5 forced fumbles and an interception, Bosa has had 5 forced fumbles, two recoveries, and an interception, Clowney had a staggering 9 forced fumbles and 1 recovery. Barnett isn't even in the same league as them when it comes to causing turnovers to happen.

If he truly wants to maximize his stock for the draft he'll find a way to cause more turnovers this year than in his previous two combined. Of course most mock drafts have him going anywhere from #3 over all to #6 so far, and the first defensive player off the board. So, there isn't much room for him to move up in NFL terms, but it would still be something to keep an eye on.
 
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#57
#57
Barnett's number are inflated compared to Bosa's because they played in different conferences. Barnett really needs TWO more years to prove himself.

Seriously, he should be a high pick. I agree with OP's stats. I hope the Titans draft him early with LA's pick that they received in the trade.
 
#58
#58
Daloth said:
The real big knock on Barnett
The absolute biggest thing Barnett has got to work on is something he has less control over than anything else. Turnovers.
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Have enjoyed your posts on this topic!

I submit there's no knock against Barnett's college production - as you've documented, his numbers are outstanding.

I'd guess the only knock against him might be his combine performance (height, bench, etc) and that he's had off season surgery the past 2 years.
 
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#60
#60
VolFan4Life87 said:
Next Minister of Defense?
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Reggie, Pollack, and Barnett: more in depth
Statistically... he's already on par or ahead of Reggie in every category except turnovers.

Through two years Reggie had 146 total tackles, 10 sacks, 9 tackles for loss, 4 pass deflections, 3 fumble recoveries, and 2 forced fumbles.

In fact, Barnett has three more sacks in 2 years than Reggie had in three, and the truly terrifying part... Barnett had more Tackles for Loss as a freshman than Reggie had in his entire 4 years at Tennessee.

But Reggie's sophomore season he had 95 tackles and 8 sacks, an astounding number for any D lineman. But, he then proceeded to one up himself his senior year with his 100 tackle, 15 sack, SEC player of the year season.

I talked about how every great D lineman had at least 1 "breakout" season statistically. Reggie and Pollack are technically exceptions, and its why they are the two best of all time so far. They both had a 100+ tackle, 10+ TFL or 10+ Sack season... but they each had a "second year" where they put up similarly ridiculous numbers, Reggie's 95 tackles and 8 sack sophomore year and Pollack's 92 tackle, 8 sack/14 TFL Junior year. Both otherwise had only average or above average years the rest of the time.

Barnett on the other hand has had two "great" years. If Pollack and Reggie's SEC player of the year seasons are 10/10 then I would call Barnett's Freshman year an 8.5/10 and his sophomore year a 7/10. If he has the season history says he should this fall it'll completely change the rating scale though, and put his 3 year numbers on par with Reggie and Pollack's 4 year numbers in nearly every category.

Barnett at the next level and hopes for Shoop's "aggressive" style
However, I don't think Barnett will have near as much success at the next level as Reggie for various reasons. People forget that Reggie was far and away better in the NFL than he was in college, and he even had two years wasted in the USFL. I mean, he had 100 sacks in 93 games. The next fastest guy to 100 sacks was Lawrence Taylor... in 114 games. That's a full NFL season and some change faster. Hell, physically he was something we'll never see again because he was a 6'5 and 300lb guy who ran a 4.6 40 in his prime. With today's training methods and medicine it'd be terrifying what he could do. For comparison, Barnett runs a 4.6 40, at 6'3 and 257lbs.

However, I do think Barnett has the ability to be a multiple position and all NFL caliber player for sure.

I really think the best D coordinators in the NFL will stand him up or put him as a roaming blitzing linebacker many times because of his size and speed. Just imagine Derek Barnett moving around pre snap to confuse an offense before blitzing straight up the middle or off the edge. He already beats the best tackles, tight ends, and full backs with just a few steps. If he had a head of steam I think it'd be terrifying what he could do.

A huge part of me hopes that Shoop will do this with him this year, both to showcase his athleticism for the next level (similarly to how Monte Kiffin utilized Eric Berry to make the whole defense better) and because I don't know many current NFL lineman who could stop him doing this at least two or three times a game, let alone any college ones. You'd literally have to audible out of whatever you're doing if the ball is even going to the same side Barnett MIGHT be coming from.

The thing is... Shoop could literally throw his hands in the air and say "Just find the ball" and Barnett would still be the best tackling lineman in the country.

As a guy who loves numbers and research myself (obviously) and the strategy and psychology behind play calling, I doubt Shoop has ever been happier than he is right now. He probably has several things he's wanted to try but never had the overall talent to do, most of the best coaches always do, after all. We've seen him make bad players look really good at Vandy, and good players look great at Penn State. He's never had a defense this good top to bottom, and he's never had a player of Barnett's caliber, and may never again.

I expect Shoop to do some amazing things with this group, maybe even a few we've never seen before. Or at least not seen at Tennessee for a very long time.
 
#62
#62
Daloth said:
physically (White) he was something we'll never see again because he was a 6'5 and 300lb guy who ran a 4.6 40 in his prime. With today's training methods and medicine it'd be terrifying what he could do. For comparison, Barnett runs a 4.6 40, at 6'3 and 257lbs.
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Where did you get these 40 times? Don't think White went to a combine? I believe Von Miller at 240 something ran a 4.5 something at the combine and Clowney did a 4.5 something also. Both of those guys were constantly touted as athletic freaks, but I've never heard of Barnett referenced in that category?

If Barnett can run a low 4.6 or better at next year's combine, I don't see how he's not a top 5 pick.
 
#63
#63
VolZen said:
Great post OP. My opinion on why Barnet has been overlooked on a national scale to some extend is the lack of the "boom" type plays. While stats have been stellar overall, even with somewhat of a slow start last year after Maggitt went down. If he had made a sack to stop the 4th and 14 at FL or forced a fumble to end Bama's come from behind drive or a similar type game changing play at a critical time, he might be getting hype this year for defensive AP player of the year/AA honors. Think Al Wilsons forced fumbles vs FL in 98, where would we/he be without those? In no way is this a knock on him, wouldn't trade him for anyone.
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Imagine if he had sacked Grier on 3rd down instead of it being an incompletion. That play could have pretty much ended the game. 4th and 14 turns into 4th and 20+. That forces Grier to throw the ball deep. But then a CB would have probably gone for a pick and just tipped it to the WR...
 
#64
#64
walkenvol said:
Where did you get these 40 times? Don't think White went to a combine? I believe Von Miller at 240 something ran a 4.5 something at the combine and Clowney did a 4.5 something also. Both of those guys were constantly touted as athletic freaks, but I've never heard of Barnett referenced in that category?

If Barnett can run a low 4.6 or better at next year's combine, I don't see how he's not a top 5 pick.
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Green Bay's hall of fame site listed Reggie's at 4.6 "in his prime" as it was worded. It was the only one I could find on him.

Barnett's was listed on NFL Draft Scout as a 4.65 low and a 4.8 high.
 
#65
#65
jdogvol said:
I'm terrified at how often you said terrified. LOL
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I do say it often because it is. a 300 pound man running a sub 5 forty is scary as hell.

But I view a lot of these numbers differently because I played college ball as well and had to block defensive ends and outside linebackers most often when I did, so seeing what they're doing at the highest level is absolutely shocking.
 
#69
#69
If Barnett can stay healthy all season along with KMAC, tuttle, and the rest of the studly group we have, boys were going to have a very stout defense this year.
 
#70
#70
GlockVol said:
LOL. Just yanking your chain. Wish I had studied harder when I was in school, but hormones kept getting in the way:). Good luck to you in the future
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When I was in school I spent half my time chasing women and drinking, the other half, I wasted.:)
 
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