i don't think we all think the game is won, but just looking at the match up, there's some obvious advantages pointed toward us.
while i'll be last one to discount a #1 defense in the Super Bowl, the offense that it's going against is not one of those finesse type of offenses that can/will be "out physicalled". this is strength on strength, and probably a push in the advantage department. this is the match up that will win or lose the game for Denver.
conversely, we boast the #6 defense, against an offense that hasn't exactly been lighting it up, and doesn't have a great run game either. i think this is an advantage for us. our pass rush, just like against AZ, is going to be key. i don't see Peyton throwing up all over himself like Palmer did, but can we get a Turnover or two??? maybe so.
and as i type this, i've felt this way before about previous super bowls, and the exact opposite happens. (ie, both NYG/Patriots Super Bowls, i didn't see how NYG could win either one, so i'm not ready to say "book it, Carolina is GOING to win")...
the super bowl is an odd duck, and can make teams shrink....so if Denver is going to win, i think you'll have to see a Carolina team do things that have been uncharacteristic to them all season...bad penalties, lots of turnovers etc....