jakez4ut
Patience... It's what's for dinner
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- Jul 7, 2005
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so, i think we all know it's a matter of when, not if, at this point. i'm not going to re hash all the stuff that's happened while he's been here, nor am i going to extrapolate what i think will happen the rest of the season. to me it simply doesn't matter, and until something is made public, and a new coach is hired, imo, there's just not much that needs to be said. it all stands on it's own merit.
what i do think is going to be important going forward is how the head coaching landscape has changed over the last 5-10 years. and how that plays in to how we choose the next guy.
last week a discussion was going on about how we need a "proven head coach" and many of the usual suspects were named, all with the intent of how we find the "next" urban meyer or nick saban.
my take on that is simple...it's just not as easy to spot the "next" sure thing as it may have been 10+ years ago. it's also my contention that rarely do head coaches that perform at an elite level at one top tier p5 school, repeat or replicate that, at another top tier P5 school. Saban and Meyer being the obvious exceptions. the usual progression has been in the past to go from mid major/2nd tier p5/elite P5 coordinator to top tier P5 head head coach. i'm not convinced Kelly is that guy for us. Stoops has made it clear he's retired and doesn't want to coach, and Gruden...i just don't see it. (that said, if Gruden, Kelly or Stoops are "that guy" for us, and you simply aren't going to take no for an answer...so be it....give it your best shot....i just don't think that will happen)
head coach career paths are wholly different today than they were several years ago. you aren't seeing the typical progression where a coach is a head coach at a mid major or 2nd tier stop for multiple years building his resume. either that or a somewhat long term coordinator at an elite level program a la a Bob Stoops or Mark Richt or Kirby Smart.
most of the coaches being hired these days may only have 2-3 years of head coaching experience period, and that's at a mid major or 2nd tier p5 program. some programs are changing head coaches multiple times in a 5-10 year span. and as those coaches are being replaced at the p5 level, so are the coaches at the lower levels. the experience pool is thin these days, and in this graph, you can see how it looks over the last 5 years alone. in 3 of the last 5 years there has been more turnover (27, 30, and 52)at head coaching positions than any single year going back to 2001 (25 positions). in fact, looking at total turnover 2001 thru 2011, 216 coaches were replaced. in the last 5 years, 144 have taken place.
that's a lot folks. taking it in 5 year segments...2001-2005: 93 the next 5 years: 98...so the last 5 years has seen a 50% increase in turnover rate.
so for everyone saying we have to hire a proven head coach, i'm just gonna say, easier said than done.
that doesn't mean we should keep CBJ.
what i do think it says is in today's day and age, TN needs to decide what we want to be and make every effort to get "the guy" they want.
at some point (and that may not be right now, fearfully), Tennessee is simply going to have to say "we're not settling for anything, this is our guy, and we're not taking no for an answer".
if they don't, then it's likely any coach he we hire is going to likely come in with a heavy dose of the unknown and will probably be viewed by fans as the next Dooley or Jones, until proven otherwise.
i don't envy what Currie is going to have to do, at least form the standpoint of choosing the next guy. it's just not as easy to spot the next "sure thing" as it used to be. and maybe all of this could be part of the reasoning used to go out and offer a ton of money to a stoops, kelly or gruden. maybe.
as you look around the entire landscape, the sure thing coaches aren't leaving Bama, OSU, FSU etc....for any school, not just UT. Miami hired a retread in Richt, but that's fairly rare....a lot of the P5 coaches fired over the last couple years either taken a TV job, coordinator job or just are out of coaching a la Les Miles or Gene Chizik or randy shannon.
none of this means, however, that we can't find and hire a really good coach. it does mean though, that you might not know, right now anyway, who that is.
Coaches | By The Numbers - Case Study: Coaching Changes in College Football.
what i do think is going to be important going forward is how the head coaching landscape has changed over the last 5-10 years. and how that plays in to how we choose the next guy.
last week a discussion was going on about how we need a "proven head coach" and many of the usual suspects were named, all with the intent of how we find the "next" urban meyer or nick saban.
my take on that is simple...it's just not as easy to spot the "next" sure thing as it may have been 10+ years ago. it's also my contention that rarely do head coaches that perform at an elite level at one top tier p5 school, repeat or replicate that, at another top tier P5 school. Saban and Meyer being the obvious exceptions. the usual progression has been in the past to go from mid major/2nd tier p5/elite P5 coordinator to top tier P5 head head coach. i'm not convinced Kelly is that guy for us. Stoops has made it clear he's retired and doesn't want to coach, and Gruden...i just don't see it. (that said, if Gruden, Kelly or Stoops are "that guy" for us, and you simply aren't going to take no for an answer...so be it....give it your best shot....i just don't think that will happen)
head coach career paths are wholly different today than they were several years ago. you aren't seeing the typical progression where a coach is a head coach at a mid major or 2nd tier stop for multiple years building his resume. either that or a somewhat long term coordinator at an elite level program a la a Bob Stoops or Mark Richt or Kirby Smart.
most of the coaches being hired these days may only have 2-3 years of head coaching experience period, and that's at a mid major or 2nd tier p5 program. some programs are changing head coaches multiple times in a 5-10 year span. and as those coaches are being replaced at the p5 level, so are the coaches at the lower levels. the experience pool is thin these days, and in this graph, you can see how it looks over the last 5 years alone. in 3 of the last 5 years there has been more turnover (27, 30, and 52)at head coaching positions than any single year going back to 2001 (25 positions). in fact, looking at total turnover 2001 thru 2011, 216 coaches were replaced. in the last 5 years, 144 have taken place.
that's a lot folks. taking it in 5 year segments...2001-2005: 93 the next 5 years: 98...so the last 5 years has seen a 50% increase in turnover rate.
so for everyone saying we have to hire a proven head coach, i'm just gonna say, easier said than done.
that doesn't mean we should keep CBJ.
what i do think it says is in today's day and age, TN needs to decide what we want to be and make every effort to get "the guy" they want.
at some point (and that may not be right now, fearfully), Tennessee is simply going to have to say "we're not settling for anything, this is our guy, and we're not taking no for an answer".
if they don't, then it's likely any coach he we hire is going to likely come in with a heavy dose of the unknown and will probably be viewed by fans as the next Dooley or Jones, until proven otherwise.
i don't envy what Currie is going to have to do, at least form the standpoint of choosing the next guy. it's just not as easy to spot the next "sure thing" as it used to be. and maybe all of this could be part of the reasoning used to go out and offer a ton of money to a stoops, kelly or gruden. maybe.
as you look around the entire landscape, the sure thing coaches aren't leaving Bama, OSU, FSU etc....for any school, not just UT. Miami hired a retread in Richt, but that's fairly rare....a lot of the P5 coaches fired over the last couple years either taken a TV job, coordinator job or just are out of coaching a la Les Miles or Gene Chizik or randy shannon.
none of this means, however, that we can't find and hire a really good coach. it does mean though, that you might not know, right now anyway, who that is.
Coaches | By The Numbers - Case Study: Coaching Changes in College Football.