Coach Envy

#51
#51
ajvol01 said:
He asks the question in a way to support his argument.

Why is last 20 more relevant than last 40?
Click to expand...

Good question. The answer is If one defines the timeline to rid themselves of obvious threats to their position, they can prove almost anything.

Example: Going back to this date last year both Jones and Saban have the exact number of wins against ranked teams.

That being said, my data regarding national championship coaches that goes back to 1993 was an arbitrary place to stop. I was simply tired of crunching the numbers.
 
Last edited:
#52
#52
ajvol01 said:
Majors came close.

1977 4-7
1978 5-5-1

Battle went 6-5 in 1976.
Click to expand...

That is a good call. Johnny missed by only one game.

I'll add a footnote. There were no ranking services back then, but CJM was regarded as having the #1 class his first year -- iirc it had a record number of parade all Americans. Fresh off a NC at Pitt and coming in as the favored son savior of UT he had his pick, and could keep a lot more of them than the current rules allow today.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 person
#53
#53
tm3 said:
That is a good call. Johnny missed by only one game.

I'll add a footnote. There were no ranking services back then, but CJM was regarded as having the #1 class his first year -- iirc it had a record number of parade all Americans. Fresh off a NC at Pitt and coming in as the favored son savior of UT he had his pick, and could keep a lot more of them than the current rules allow today.
Click to expand...

I don't know this for sure, but I have often heard that in response to that, didn't the NCAA set up a rule colloquially called the "Major's Rule" that was intended to end such practices?
 
#54
#54
daj2576 said:
I don't know this for sure, but I have often heard that in response to that, didn't the NCAA set up a rule colloquially called the "Major's Rule" that was intended to end such practices?
Click to expand...

The version that I heard put the blame on Bear Bryant, who seemed to put a crimson jersey on every toothless wonder in the state.

Johnny was pretty outspoken against the recruiting limits, so one way or the other he seemed to be in the thick of it.
 
#55
#55
tm3 said:
The version that I heard put the blame on Bear Bryant, who seemed to put a crimson jersey on every toothless wonder in the state.

Johnny was pretty outspoken against the recruiting limits, so one way or the other he seemed to be in the thick of it.
Click to expand...

lol
 
#56
#56
volfan411 said:
To be fair though he did not get the oppurtunity to played ranked teams week in and week out while at Cincinnati and he has been at a clear disadvantange in his tenure at UT but he did have a win over VA Tech in 2012 which finished the season ranked.
Click to expand...

That's not true. Va Tech finished that season at 7-6 and well out of the top 25.
 
#57
#57
governmentmule said:
"This year, the 6th year of his tenure, Mullen's team is being praised as an SEC west elite"

6 years,a lot of people think CBJ will get it turned around in a couple of years,I don't think that will happen,could it yes ,but highly doubtful.there are question marks everywhere, and Worley and AJ will be gone next year

which means there will be more freshmen that will be called on ,which is a bad thing ,until CBJ can red shirt players on both sides of the lines,it will be ugly,but he is recruiting lights out,which is the bright spot right now
Click to expand...

Hopefully we see enough improvement in the next few years to justify letting Jones see his vision come to fruition.

He is definitely recruiting his way to a very good team.
 
#58
#58
ajvol01 said:
Need to hone your research skills.

Battle 1976: 6-5
Majors 1977: 4-7
Majors 1978: 5-5-1
Click to expand...

I specified the last 20 years for a very good reason... and you still named only one out of the last 40.

We live in an entirely different era of both football and media. The game and players have changed dramatically. You did not have the attention to recruiting through organized and specialized reporting then. You did not have the company sponsored camps and HS all star games then. You didn't even have ESPN yet.

Sports media was mostly local... which gets us to Majors. He was already a UT icon from his playing days, had coached a Heisman winner, AND had won a national championship BEFORE taking over at UT.


So you have to go back further than is reasonable... and still need very special circumstances.
 
#59
#59
ajvol01 said:
He asks the question in a way to support his argument.

Why is last 20 more relevant than last 40?
Click to expand...

I explained it in my last post. It isn't arbitrary at all. The "business" of college football now is about as similar to the business then as the cell phones of today are similar to the mobile phones of then.
 
#60
#60
daj2576 said:
Good question. The answer is If one defines the timeline to rid themselves of obvious threats to their position, they can prove almost anything.
Click to expand...
And that's a bunch of BS to cover the fact that you cannot answer the question in a way that suits you.

Unbecoming of someone who usually focuses on facts and data.

Example: Going back to this date last year both Jones and Saban have the exact number of wins against ranked teams.
Click to expand...
Oranges and apples.

That being said, my data regarding national championship coaches that goes back to 1993 was an arbitrary place to stop. I was simply tired of crunching the numbers.
Click to expand...

If you want to argue that the modern era of sports media began in the mid-80's then feel welcome to go back to then. Again it took a very special circumstance so far for someone to come up with even one example that's now more than 30 years old.
 
#61
#61
sjt18 said:
And that's a bunch of BS to cover the fact that you cannot answer the question in a way that suits you.

Unbecoming of someone who usually focuses on facts and data.

Oranges and apples.



If you want to argue that the modern era of sports media began in the mid-80's then feel welcome to go back to then. Again it took a very special circumstance so far for someone to come up with even one example that's now more than 30 years old.
Click to expand...


My posted topic was narrow in scope and that is to take a look at a group of coaches that are well regarded and examine what that actually means in relation to talent. Personally I was surprised by some of the results. I was not surprised, however, to continue to see the importance of recruiting great talent.

If you have substantive data that suggests something different than anything I have posted, please parse it and post it.
 
#62
#62
sjt18 said:
Just curious? Who made that argument? I think many of us have said that no coach goes on to be successful in a job without winning more than the previous coach within the first two years... almost always in the first year.

The comparison isn't really of the coach compared to himself but the coach compared to his predecessor.

Your numbers are interesting and meaningful at 70% accuracy. I believe the % of coaches who fail to succeed in a new job that do NOT improve the team record over the previous coach within the first two years is higher than that.
Click to expand...

Let me address this head on.

I cannot show you data that proves a coach will succeed any more than you can show me data that proves that a coach will fail. This conversation was not about that to begin with, it was about looking at coaches who are perceived as successful and seeing what that means compared to talent and the delta in record.

Next, I cannot chase the bolded statement as it is too vague, nor should I. The burden is on you to provide data that counteracts anything that I have said, and nothing you have said counteracts my data.

Feelings/beliefs without data, are not data. I cannot stress that enough.

That aside, let us work the problem.

First, define "fail to succeed." This is important as you could be measuring nothing more than fan/administrative discontent or lack of reasonable expectations. Does a coach being fired prove that he wouldn't have succeeded, or does it just prove he didn't in the time he was given? Is your paradigm for success national championships, or just improving the record?

Second, if your paradigm is winning national championships, I can help you narrow your search results down significantly. What I have found, going back to 1993, is that coaches who have won national championships took, on average, 6 years to do so (3 if you adjust out two of those coaches who averaged 19 years until their first, but who then won multiple national championships [Bowden/Osborne]). Next, not only did it take an average of 6 years, but it takes an average of recruiting in the top 15 to win (at least going back to 2005 which is far as my recruiting data can take me).

So as I understand your question, it would better be restated like this: How many coaches didn't win a national championship, were given 6 years to do so, and averaged top 15 recruiting over their tenure? Find coaches who fit that paradigm over the past 20 years (as that seems to be an important timeline for you) and let's discuss that data. Otherwise we might be measuring all sorts of factors well outside a coaches control and potentially drawing incorrect conclusions from that.
 
Last edited:
#63
#63
2016 will show Jones ability to coach as well as rebuild, if not, the Vol's will need more excuses and liver pills
Go Vols
 
New posts
You must log in or register to reply here.

VN Store



Back
Top