I think a lot of people don't like Trump (heck I am not a fan) but the issue is that a lot of people are starting to dislike Biden more.
Agree that Trump has been more mum on some of his more crazy topics but Trump can't get out of his own way so I am expecting some dumb comments to emerge between now and November. (Biden has the same issue as well though but the media doesn't highlight his comments at the level of Trump).
People are not hearing what they want from Biden. The Admin keeps talking about how "great" the economy is and ignoring the illegal alien problem and focusing on extremely select groups (like the rewrite of Title 9) that is angering some. The problem is, people know they are FOS every time they check out at the grocery store or get gas. Even traditional "liberals" are starting to question what's going on. Check out Bill Maher and Stephen A. Smith lately to see what I'm talking about.
And yes, the media keeps trying to highlight anything Trump says (the bloodbath issue was really bad) and will carry it in a negative light. The problem is the people are figuring that out too and actually looking for context now.
30% are going to vote for Biden no matter what. 30% are going to vote for Trump no matter what. The 40% in the middle are who Trump is speaking to. And they are listening. They may not like him or his antics, but he's saying exactly what they are getting fed up with.
Facing facts here, when's the last time you saw only a 10 point difference in New York state for the Presidential polls? Right now, Biden is only leading by 10 in a state he carried with 23 points in 2020.
I think there are more states in play here than the pollsters are giving credit for. I think Virginia, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Michigan and Wisconsin are all in play. Georgia and Arizona flip back red.
And I think even New York, New Jersey, Colorado and Minnesota are in play right now. I know it's crazy, but all those states are within 10 points right now.