Let's Track the "Professional" Predictions of the Vols 2014 season.

#27
#27
You already have it in your google document, but for the sake of the thread, here's athlon's predicted SEC standings:

2014 SEC Predictions

East Division - SEC - Overall
1. Georgia (No. 8) 6-2 10-3
2. South Carolina (No. 9) 6-2 10-2
3. Florida (No. 23) 4-4 7-5
4. Missouri (No. 25)4-4 8-4
5. Tennessee (No. 42)3-5 6-6
6. Vanderbilt (No. 44)2-6 6-6
7. Kentucky (No. 70)1-7 4-8

West Division -SEC -Overall
1. Alabama (No. 2) 7-1 12-1
2. Auburn (No. 5) 6-2 10-2
3. Ole Miss (No. 18) 5-3 9-3
4. LSU (No. 19) 4-4 8-4
5. Mississippi State (No. 33) 4-4 8-4
6. Texas A&M (No. 34) 3-5 7-5
7. Arkansas (No. 63) 1-7 4-8

SEC Championship Alabama over Georgia

SEC Football 2014 Predictions | AthlonSports.com

What is a reasonable expectation for Tennessee?
Butch Jones’ second season on Rocky Top isn’t going to be easy. The Volunteers still have talent (No. 6 ranked roster in the SEC), but the schedule is brutal. Tennessee opens non-conference play with a dangerous Utah State team in the opener, followed by a trip to Oklahoma to play the Sooners two weeks later. It doesn’t get any easier in the SEC, as the Volunteers catch Alabama and Ole Miss in crossover play and travel to Vanderbilt to close out the regular season. As if the schedule wasn’t enough, Tennessee needs to replace all five starters on the offensive line, and there’s very little in the way of proven depth on the defensive front. The Volunteers have talent at the skill positions and should be able to get better play from their quarterbacks. Due to the holes on the depth chart and schedule, a good season for Jones is just getting to a bowl game. – Steven Lassan
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#29
#29
BigOrangeFanatic said:
There is absolutely "zero" excuse to lose to Vandy this year...or any year for that matter. I obviously wouldn't be surprised with 5-7 but if he goes 4-8 and loses to Vandy, he will have digressed from year 1 to year 2. Recruiting will likely stall at that point.

He needs a bowl game this year to keep everything rolling in the right direction. This team will be talented enough to get there if the coaching is there as well. We shall see.
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I agree. 4-8 or 5-7 are bad news. You cant fire Butch, but at the same time it isnt a good sign for the future rebuilding process. We at least need a 6-6 record and a bowl game.
 
#31
#31
BigOrangeFanatic said:
If we go 4-8, fire bUTch!

If he cant get to 6-6 this year its a bad sign IMO. There's no excuse losing to Vandy, and they should be able to find a way to beat Mizzou at home.

6-6 is my prediction.
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Come ooooon.... come ooooon... really? Come ooooon... It's possible with all of the wrong breaks. The only thing after that that could determine my faith is the next recruiting class results and ultimately next season. I don't think we'll fall that far but seriously, we should all be sick of wondering who the next coach will be. Have some faith. Lighten up and drink a little koolaid. Maybe have your glasses tinted orange. Step back from the ledge. It'll be ay okay man.
 
#32
#32
I asked my magic 8 ball about 8 wins this season and the answer is,
"Without a doubt."
 
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#34
#34
BigOrangeFanatic said:
There is absolutely "zero" excuse to lose to Vandy this year...or any year for that matter. I obviously wouldn't be surprised with 5-7 but if he goes 4-8 and loses to Vandy, he will have digressed from year 1 to year 2. Recruiting will likely stall at that point.

He needs a bowl game this year to keep everything rolling in the right direction. This team will be talented enough to get there if the coaching is there as well. We shall see.
Click to expand...

yeah we have skilled pos talent with alot of freshman recruits that are SUPPOSED to be good backing them up and the most critical guys that step on the football field have minimum experience. our lineman. Volnation I hope you realize that the expectations to get our new lineman to even last years lines level (which I believe were overrated) is asking ALOT. All im saying is your expectations are going to dissappoint you by expecting newbies to perform like sohpmores/junior/seniors. Utah St will even be a huge wake up call for these youngsters. Now, with that being said, being high recruits and hopefully being coached very well, the ability to adapt and overcome their mistakes will show how the season will turn out. Im thinking our best turnout would be 8-4, the turnout I expect is 6-6, the floor is 4-8 which coming off last year some critical improvements must be made to avoid the floor. qb play, pressure on the qb, stopping the run & pass more consistently, speed on D, better downhill running by our rbs, not dropping balls, and a bunch of freshman to play like their seniors
 
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#36
#36
Looking ahead to the inaugural College Football Playoff; more mail « SI.com

Vegas recently released its over-under win totals for the 2014 season. While the wise guys are undoubtedly smarter than I am, a few totals stick out. I would expect Tennessee is in store for more than 5.5 wins, while Notre Dame and Missouri may be a tad overrated at 9.5. Which totals stick out to you?

-Benjamin Briggs, Mount Laurel, N.J.
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I know, not an "expert", and SI's response is your standard *insert second year improvement but strength of schedule* comment. It is nice to see an outside perspective of positivity and that our feelings on Missouri are shared, however.
 
#37
#37
Just since it wasn't posted, the writer's response to the above question:

Tennessee's total of 5.5 does not surprise me, because while the Volunteers will likely improve in coach Butch Jones' second season, their schedule is brutal. As of today, they would likely be considerable underdogs at Oklahoma on Sept. 13, at Georgia on Sept. 27, against Alabama on Oct. 25 and at South Carolina on Nov. 1. The Vols would be slight underdogs against Florida on Oct. 4 and Missouri on Nov. 22, too. Their opening opponent, Utah State, is set to return dual-threat quarterback Chuckie Keeton, and Tennessee hasn't beaten Vanderbilt in four years. I think I'd take the over, but not by much.

The totals for Notre Dame and Missouri do seem high, though the Irish's is inflated because of their popularity among casual bettors. Notre Dame's schedule doesn't seem to lend itself to 10 wins, but I would have said the same thing two years ago. Missouri won 12 games last year, but after losing defensive linemen Michael Sam and Kony Ealy, among others, the Tigers have a lot to replace on defense.

Two others totals that stand out to me are Penn State's and North Carolina's. The Nittany Lions went 7-5 last season. The effect on their roster from recent scholarship reductions is only going to get worse before it gets better. Yet Penn State's over-under total of 8.5 suggests it might win nine games. I don't see that happening. I feel the opposite way about the Tar Heels. After starting 1-5 last season, Larry Fedora's squad won six of its last seven contests, the sole loss coming in a heartbreaking 27-25 defeat to division champion Duke. Several young playmakers emerged, including dynamic quarterback Marquise Williams. I see North Carolina as a potential 10-win team, making its total of 7.5 seem low -- even with potentially daunting trips to Notre Dame, Clemson and Miami.
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#39
#39
daj2576 said:
Did the author write this from the future? How long has it been since we beat Vandy?
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From a fan standpoint I wish we could beat them twice a year, every year. Looking from a historical, current, talent-wise, and program status wise, I'd say we're due for a win this year, and then some.
 
#40
#40
Lindy’s Southeastern 2014 Preview offers a forecast that is, perhaps, even fuzzier than the crystal ball used by Athlon. They provide no game-by-game predictions, but, in their divisional predictions, project us to finish 5th in the SEC East, directly behind Missouri and ahead of the Commodes. In the associated blurb, they state that “Butch Jones has UT going in right direction, but schedule makes it hard to do better than 6-6.” That message is later echoed by the simple declaration that “Tennessee is a 6-6 team.” Nationally, they have us pegged at 57th, directly behind Houston and just ahead of Washington State. Based upon their unit-by-unit analyses, even these projections would seem to be overly positive, for they consider us to have the WORST offensive and defensive lines in the conference. They do not even consider Jalen Hurd and Josh Malone to be among the top 20 incoming freshmen in the SEC.

In the team overview which is authored by the less-than-revered Jimmy Hyams, it is again asserted that “Fifth place in the East Division and a bowl bid are reasonable goals.” Hyams does offer one eyeopening nugget of information, however. As we are all aware, Butch and his staff signed 14 early enrollees in the 2014 recruiting class, which I believe is the most in program history. Hyams informs us that “UT had a nation’s leading 14 players enroll at mid term, the third time in four years that Butch Jones has had the most mid-termers in the country” (p. 174). That quite simply does not happen by random chance and underscores what I believe to be part of Butch’s overall strategy for program development. I regret that I can’t provide a citation, but he stated previously that one of his goals is for his players to graduate in 3 to 3 ½ years. It is my opinion that Butch wants to do everything in his power to coordinate the graduation of as many players as possible in December, both on the high school level and from UT, thus maximizing the number of spots available for early enrollees. If he can bring in 12-15 early enrollees every year, that is a tremendous advantage in terms of accelerating player development, both in the strength and conditioning program, spring practice, enhanced preparation for their freshman season, and academic acclimation to college-level work.
 
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#41
#41
daj2576 said:
Volnation, I need your help.

Every year the "professionals" come out in force and tell us how they expect every team to perform. I want to compare the voluminous predictions to reality. I know many of the prognosticators are total clown shoes, and some are really good at what they do.

Help me track them?

If you have a link to any website, blogger, or magazine that tells us how they believe Vols 2014 season will turn out, post them here. I don't want this to be a discussion of what "we" think, there are a dozen threads about that already. Let's crowd source this, scour the internet, and I will compile a list of all preseason predictions and provide a summary at the end of the season.

EDIT: please try to avoid discussions of what "we" think, there is enough of that in every thread. I'd like to keep this about what "they" (the so-called professionals) think.
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SEC football predictions: SIDs predict division winners, All-SEC team | Saturday Down South
 
#42
#42
As with others here, I think that the way UT comes out of the brutal

OKLA
UGA
UF
UTC
Ole Miss
Bama
USCe

stretch will mentally set them up for the rest of the season. Come out with some close losses to USC/UGA/Ole Miss, a 14-24 point loss to Bama and OU and a win against UF and I think this team will pull through and clean out after USCe. Certainly Kentucky and Vandy should be wins given the talent difference and I think Mizzou 2014 will be far more like 2012 than 2013.

Yes, we do have a lot of Freshmen, but they should improve significantly over the year. This is a brutal schedule but it's easier overall than our 2013 and 2014 UT should have a much better roster with far more depth than 2013 UT did.

I think 6-6 is the baseline with 7-5 more probable than 5-7 and certainly 4-8 shouldn't be attained if our staff is quality. I just don't see 4-8 unless something drastically wrong happens.

Given UT finds a competent QB and the OL isn't horrible, I think 6-6/7-5 are the most likely results.
 
#44
#44
Volosaurus rex said:
Lindy’s Southeastern 2014 Preview offers a forecast that is, perhaps, even fuzzier than the crystal ball used by Athlon. They provide no game-by-game predictions, but, in their divisional predictions, project us to finish 5th in the SEC East, directly behind Missouri and ahead of the Commodes. In the associated blurb, they state that “Butch Jones has UT going in right direction, but schedule makes it hard to do better than 6-6.” That message is later echoed by the simple declaration that “Tennessee is a 6-6 team.” Nationally, they have us pegged at 57th, directly behind Houston and just ahead of Washington State. Based upon their unit-by-unit analyses, even these projections would seem to be overly positive, for they consider us to have the WORST offensive and defensive lines in the conference. They do not even consider Jalen Hurd and Josh Malone to be among the top 20 incoming freshmen in the SEC.

In the team overview which is authored by the less-than-revered Jimmy Hyams, it is again asserted that “Fifth place in the East Division and a bowl bid are reasonable goals.” Hyams does offer one eyeopening nugget of information, however. As we are all aware, Butch and his staff signed 14 early enrollees in the 2014 recruiting class, which I believe is the most in program history. Hyams informs us that “UT had a nation’s leading 14 players enroll at mid term, the third time in four years that Butch Jones has had the most mid-termers in the country” (p. 174). That quite simply does not happen by random chance and underscores what I believe to be part of Butch’s overall strategy for program development. I regret that I can’t provide a citation, but he stated previously that one of his goals is for his players to graduate in 3 to 3 ½ years. It is my opinion that Butch wants to do everything in his power to coordinate the graduation of as many players as possible in December, both on the high school level and from UT, thus maximizing the number of spots available for early enrollees. If he can bring in 12-15 early enrollees every year, that is a tremendous advantage in terms of accelerating player development, both in the strength and conditioning program, spring practice, enhanced preparation for their freshman season, and academic acclimation to college-level work.
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You had such a good summary, I simply included that with the column regarding Lindy. Thanks!

We now have the Lindy prediction, per your comments, and the SDS sports athletic director predictions included.
 
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#45
#45
Thought you guys might like this: See attached pdf.

Basically this shows the probability of winning X number of games using the known likelihood that the team who recruits better wins 70% of the time.

To date, I had been counting a win for the 8 games that UT'S 4 year recruiting average was higher and a 30% likelihood of a win for the inverse. I knew that was a weakness to the way I was currently viewing seasonal probabilities. This also explains why about 80% of SEC teams finish the season within 2 games of predictions.

It looks to be a very good bet that UT wins at least 6 if not 7 games where UT is favored by talent. In other words, bet the over on UT.
 

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#46
#46
daj2576 said:
Thought you guys might like this: See attached pdf.

Basically this shows the probability of winning X number of games using the known likelihood that the team who recruits better wins 70% of the time.

To date, I had been counting a win for the 8 games that UT'S 4 year recruiting average was higher and a 30% likelihood of a win for the inverse. I knew that was a weakness to the way I was currently viewing seasonal probabilities. This also explains why about 80% of SEC teams finish the season within 2 games of predictions.

It looks to be a very good bet that UT wins at least 6 if not 7 games where UT is favored by talent. In other words, bet the over on UT.
Click to expand...

It's funny that the "nega-vols" are all pretty much saying UT should be at least a 6-6 season while the pro-Butch crowd is saying 5-7 is realistic.

I agree that 6-6, 7-5 should be the expectation this season.
 
#47
#47
rickyb712 said:
I have 2 words for the projections -------SUCK IT
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So what do you think we will go? I would personally be ecstatic with 6-6 this year. We have ZERO returning linemen on both sides of the ball. Nothing. Do some research on what happens to line-depleted teams in the SEC. It will make your skin crawl. Not for the faint of heart.
 
#48
#48
Boca Vol said:
It's funny that the "nega-vols" are all pretty much saying UT should be at least a 6-6 season while the pro-Butch crowd is saying 5-7 is realistic.

I agree that 6-6, 7-5 should be the expectation this season.
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Both 5-7 and 6-6 are realistic. Still don't know which is likely.
 
#49
#49
LotteryPick said:
Both 5-7 and 6-6 are realistic. Still don't know which is likely.
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According to my new calculations, and using a 70% probability of a win for a team we have out recruited, and a 30% probability of a win for a team we haven't...here are some numbers to chew on.

Probability of Winning at least 1 of 12 games: 100 %
Probability of Winning at least 2 of 12 games: 99.97 %
Probability of Winning at least 3 of 12 games: 99.67 %
Probability of Winning at least 4 of 12 games: 98.11 %
Probability of Winning at least 5 of 12 games: 92.65 %
Probability of Winning at least 6 of 12 games: 79.63 %
Probability of Winning at least 7 of 12 games: 58.09 %
Probability of Winning at least 8 of 12 games: 33.35 %
Probability of Winning at least 9 of 12 games: 13.95 %
Probability of Winning at least 10 of 12 games: 3.9 %
Probability of Winning at least 11 of 12 games: 0.64 %
Probability of Winning at least 12 of 12 games: 0.05 %
 
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