According to projections by ESPN’s Football Outsiders, there’s a 65 percent chance the SEC will lose at least two of its week one matchups. The mostly likely candidate to be upset? Tennessee.
Utah State Aggies at Tennessee Volunteers
53.6 percent chance the Vols loseUtah State is one of only eight teams that have ranked among the top 15 in our opponent-adjusted defensive efficiency measure each of the last two seasons. Tennessee lost all six games it played against defenses ranked that highly in the same span. While this is a new year and the Volunteers are a program projected to take steps forward in 2014, this matchup has the most upset potential because the Aggies can be so tough to move the ball against, much less score on. Utah State allowed only 2.8 yards per rush last season (No. 2 in FBS) and allowed only 3.8 points per drive that crossed the Aggies’ 30-yard line (also No. 2). Meanwhile, Tennessee ranked No. 117 in producing methodical drives (possessions of 10 plays or more).
Forum discussion: Opener is a likely L per ESPN