You're gonna love this Vols Report

#1
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OmahaOmaha

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#1
Straight Outta Vegas!

#18 TENNESSEE | OVER 8½ WINS (+115 | Betonline.ag)

Recency Bias has caused the Vols to be underestimated after last year’s playoff thrashing, but this Vols win total number seems to overlook two major UT advantages:

Offense: In a highly publicized and ugly NIL compensation dispute, 2024 starting UT QB, now-sophomore 6-06 | 221 Nico Iamaleava unexpectedly left Knoxville for a (seemingly) bigger bag at UCLA.

Tennessee (reportedly) looks to hand the QB keys to a portal veteran, Appalachian State transfer, senior QB 6-03 | 222 Joey Aguilar.

Aguilar may carry some question marks, but his résumé is undeniable: He has 24 Division I starts in his breakout 2023 season, in which he rolled up 3,757 yards (33 TD | 10 Int). Aguilar did have a modest dip in 2024, but under HC Heupel’s fast-paced system, this seasoned journeyman quarterback is more likely to rediscover his 2023 form with Heupel.

Defense: Returns the majority of a top-6 unit that kept opponents under 20 points until Week 12, despite overhauling its front seven.

Phil Steele ranks Tennessee's schedule as the SEC’s second easiest. Tennessee avoids playing Texas, LSU, Ole Miss, and A&M; has only two true road tests (at Alabama and at Florida); and will host Georgia and Oklahoma.

Vols play only four true road games in 2025.

At these odds, and a strong defense combined with an easier 2025 conference schedule, a Vols 9+ win season is the play.

By the way, how underappreciated is Tennessee’s HC, Josh Heupel?

Tennessee four years before Heupel (2017 through 2020)

TENNESSEE 20-27 overall (.425)
TENNESSEE 10-24 SEC conference (.294)

Tennessee HC Josh Heupel’s four-year tenure (2021 through 2024)

TENNESSEE 37-15 overall (.712)
TENNESSEE 20-12 SEC conference (.625)

Consider Heupel's last combined seven years as a head coach.
Three years at (28-8) UCF plus four years at (37-15) Tennessee

Heupel is 65-23 (.739) and 40-17 conference (.702)

Props to UT HC Josh Heupel.

We hear how much Heupel has significantly improved the Vols, but I (for one) just didn't realize he's been this good.
 
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#2
#2
Aguilar should be an upgrade over what we got last season at QB. If Defense and Running Game can be similar, then the team should be better. It doesn’t necessarily result in a better record because I suspect OU and UF will be better too.

And, yes folks, we have a very good HC and coaching staff in Knoxville.
 
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#12
#12
I think our defense will be better bc we have a solid secondary this year to match a great D line.

Also CJH has shown a knack for playing to a players strengths and minimizing their weaknesses. Sounds basic but many coaches try forcing something with players that isn’t there.

- Run game is there bc it always has been.
- Defense improved.
- Experienced QB playing with the best weapons, coaches, and facilities he’s ever had.
- favorable schedule.

I don’t see why Vols fans aren’t more optimistic.

WRs should come along. That aspect of offense always takes time to gel, even in the nfl ranks.

Last thing: I ain’t scared. If we shutdown Georgia’s run game they can’t score. We have more options to score on offense than they do. Bring them on.

Vols 49-24. Yeah I said it.
 
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#13
#13
EZE said:
Aguilar should be an upgrade over what we got last season at QB. If Defense and Running Game can be similar, then the team should be better. It doesn’t necessarily result in a better record because I suspect OU and UF will be better too.

And, yes folks, we have a very good HC and coaching staff in Knoxville.
Click to expand...
Let’s not overlook that Nico had 19 TDs with only 5 INTs…I felt like Nico held the ball too long sometimes but he didn’t turn the ball over much…
 
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#15
#15
Just to reiterate some stats. Pajama boy Nico threw for 300 yards once. Against mighty UTC. He threw for over 200 twice in SEC games. Against Kentucky and Vandy. Against Ohio state he threw for 104. He did show some courage running in the OSU game, though. Still, looking at Heupel’s history with quarterbacks, I think it was an all time low for production from that position. I can’t imagine JA could be worse than that. He also seems to be a tough, not scared, runner, which is imperative if you want to run the zone option scheme. I’m optimistic.
 
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#16
#16
I think that we all want depth, when needed, we want the next man up to rise to the occasion, embody the maxims, and succeed. For one, I want this Tennessee team to play for victory every second on the clock, every player on the roster all in. And with the culture CJH has fostered, I’m optimistic about that being the case. GBO.
 
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#17
#17
I posted this in another thread, but I am going to post it here as well.
My two cents after looking at the data from last year. Nico was:
1. 7th in completion percentage (63.8%), just above the conference average of 62.8%.
2. 8th in passing yards.
3. 7th in TDs.
4. Above average in INTs (5) which is good.
5. 7th in passing yards per attempt.
6. 11th in passing yards per completion (lots of shorter passes).
7. 7th in QB rating at 145.3.

In all, Nico was average last year. Despite having an average QB, Tennessee made the playoffs. Will we make the playoffs this year with average QB play?
My guess is no, given that we play Alabama and Florida away and Georgia at home.
If, however, the defense is really good and our starting QB is just a little better than Nico, then who knows.
As the old adage goes, "If the offense scores, we may win. If the defense keeps them from scoring, we will win."
GO VOLS!
 
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#18
#18
EZE said:
Aguilar should be an upgrade over what we got last season at QB. If Defense and Running Game can be similar, then the team should be better. It doesn’t necessarily result in a better record because I suspect OU and UF will be better too.

And, yes folks, we have a very good HC and coaching staff in Knoxville.
Click to expand...

Insert "will"
 
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#19
#19
ETV said:
CJH underappreciated? I don't believe that's the case with the fan base. We know what we have compared to the dark years before. My concern is with Halzle and his lack of growth in his new role.
Click to expand...
Yes, I agree some of our fans are sub-par, but we have recruited over some of them, and given some their git-shirts. I think our fan blue-chip ratio is higher than ever. 🤔
 
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#20
#20
OmahaOmaha said:
Straight Outta Vegas!

#18 TENNESSEE | OVER 8½ WINS (+115 | Betonline.ag)

Recency Bias has caused the Vols to be underestimated after last year’s playoff thrashing, but this Vols win total number seems to overlook two major UT advantages:

Offense: In a highly publicized and ugly NIL compensation dispute, 2024 starting UT QB, now-sophomore 6-06 | 221 Nico Iamaleava unexpectedly left Knoxville for a (seemingly) bigger bag at UCLA.

Tennessee (reportedly) looks to hand the QB keys to a portal veteran, Appalachian State transfer, senior QB 6-03 | 222 Joey Aguilar.

Aguilar may carry some question marks, but his résumé is undeniable: He has 24 Division I starts in his breakout 2023 season, in which he rolled up 3,757 yards (33 TD | 10 Int). Aguilar did have a modest dip in 2024, but under HC Heupel’s fast-paced system, this seasoned journeyman quarterback is more likely to rediscover his 2023 form with Heupel.

Defense: Returns the majority of a top-6 unit that kept opponents under 20 points until Week 12, despite overhauling its front seven.

Phil Steele ranks Tennessee's schedule as the SEC’s second easiest. Tennessee avoids playing Texas, LSU, Ole Miss, and A&M; has only two true road tests (at Alabama and at Florida); and will host Georgia and Oklahoma.

Vols play only four true road games in 2025.

At these odds, and a strong defense combined with an easier 2025 conference schedule, a Vols 9+ win season is the play.

By the way, how underappreciated is Tennessee’s HC, Josh Heupel?

Tennessee four years before Heupel (2017 through 2020)

TENNESSEE 20-27 overall (.425)
TENNESSEE 10-24 SEC conference (.294)

Tennessee HC Josh Heupel’s four-year tenure (2021 through 2024)

TENNESSEE 37-15 overall (.712)
TENNESSEE 20-12 SEC conference (.625)

Consider Heupel's last combined seven years as a head coach.
Three years at (28-8) UCF plus four years at (37-15) Tennessee

Heupel is 65-23 (.739) and 40-17 conference (.702)

Props to UT HC Josh Heupel.

We hear how much Heupel has significantly improved the Vols, but I (for one) just didn't realize he's been this good.
Click to expand...
You make some good points but I believe you whiffed when you said the play was 9-3. Please don't take the kids' college money and play that number in Vegas. I believe 8-4 at best but, if I was laying out money, I would play 7-5.
 
#21
#21
Redheads said:
Just to reiterate some stats. Pajama boy Nico threw for 300 yards once. Against mighty UTC. He threw for over 200 twice in SEC games. Against Kentucky and Vandy. Against Ohio state he threw for 104. He did show some courage running in the OSU game, though. Still, looking at Heupel’s history with quarterbacks, I think it was an all time low for production from that position. I can’t imagine JA could be worse than that. He also seems to be a tough, not scared, runner, which is imperative if you want to run the zone option scheme. I’m optimistic.
Click to expand...
Nico and Joe both were pretty much the same, one was just really skinny. So it’s 2 years of handpicked guys that have woefully underachieved. You can’t just throw anyone back there and come out with a Hendon Hooker.
 
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