madtownvol
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I know this assessment is a bit early since the transfer window is not yet finished but, Kellie's roster is still mostly set, so we can start to envision what next year’s team might be.
It is easier now because the last two seasons have shown how Kellie will set up her team and the specific roles each player has to fit into (even when facing the square peg round hole problem). No reason to waste any more time imagining different configurations that Kellie could or should use because she has her system and, as we know, "she does not like change."
Conventional post slot: Kellie wants the old skool back to the basket, protect the rim post player who occasionally slides out for pick and roll action. Having Key back will be a huge upgrade over the triad who filled in during her absence. None of them really fit that role, though Hollingshead came the closest. The open question is who will be the back-up since Key will probably only average between 25 to maybe 30 minutes a game. Right now, it would be Hollingshead which I will argue is not a good use of her talents so, a #2 post in the transfer would seem to be a high priority. In lieu of that, I would rather Striplin than Hollingshead in the role for reasons listed below:
The power forward slot: Two years ago, Alexus Dye was the perfect fit for this role. She was an excellent rebounder, good finisher around the rim, and a strong defensive presence in the paint. This season square peg Rickea was put into this round hole and it worked okay, except that Rickea could not be the linebacker in the paint that Dye had been. Couple that deficiency with Key’s absence and no shock that the LVs interior defense seriously declined.
Next season (assuming Kellie recruits a number two post), Hollingshead is the perfect fit with Puckett and Striplin being good next options. When you consider this role in the broader defensive scheme and not just point production, I think Hollingshead will be an overall improvement. As with Rickea, I would keep Holllingshead on the floor as much as possible (in this role) and so I would not use her in the suboptimal role of Key's back-up unless forced to by circumstances.
The “I can do everything” Jordan Horston slot: We come to the “bacon saving” decision from Rickea to use her covid year. She will slot in here and it will be a big offensive upgrade. Rickea could put up Caitlin Clark numbers in this role. Rickea showed she can be a very good perimeter defender. I do expect a little defensive drop off from Jordan simply because JH is a super elite defender but overall Rickea is an upgrade in the spot. Who backs up Rickea is the question. Wynn has the athleticism for the role but has to take a big step forward in her all round game this offseason. I am not sure Puckett has the necessary athleticism but I suppose she could be an option as well.
Point Guard- Short answer: Destiny Wells and a year more experienced Jaz Powell will be an upgrade over Walker and this year’s version of Powell. I think Miles, also with an extra year of development, will be a solid contributor when needed to fill in.
Shooting guard—Tess and Justine. I am actually very pro-Tess and I expect her game to jump another level but I think LVs best chance to become a legit title contender is for Justine to make a Rae Burrell caliber jump from her freshman to sophomore season and become the primary option in that slot. Regardless of who starts, though I think next year's tandem will also be an upgrade from this year's.
Conclusion. The 2023-24 team will be a better team at each position than the 2022-23 team. I believe that they will also gel much faster than last year's team.
But what is their ceiling?
If we go back to 2021-22 before the injuries, the LVs were a top 5 team who hung their identity on defense. This year’s team was better offensively but was nowhere near as dominating on defense. I think next year will be a best of both worlds. The LVs will be a top ten team who will give everyone fits due to their defense. They also will be playing the same style as SC and LSU and it is hard to see the LVs beating those teams at their own game but on the right night, it could happen, as we saw in the SEC tournament vs. LSU.
I think they will be in the hunt for the SEC title and should certainly be able to get the elite 8, after which it becomes anybody’s game.
It is easier now because the last two seasons have shown how Kellie will set up her team and the specific roles each player has to fit into (even when facing the square peg round hole problem). No reason to waste any more time imagining different configurations that Kellie could or should use because she has her system and, as we know, "she does not like change."
Conventional post slot: Kellie wants the old skool back to the basket, protect the rim post player who occasionally slides out for pick and roll action. Having Key back will be a huge upgrade over the triad who filled in during her absence. None of them really fit that role, though Hollingshead came the closest. The open question is who will be the back-up since Key will probably only average between 25 to maybe 30 minutes a game. Right now, it would be Hollingshead which I will argue is not a good use of her talents so, a #2 post in the transfer would seem to be a high priority. In lieu of that, I would rather Striplin than Hollingshead in the role for reasons listed below:
The power forward slot: Two years ago, Alexus Dye was the perfect fit for this role. She was an excellent rebounder, good finisher around the rim, and a strong defensive presence in the paint. This season square peg Rickea was put into this round hole and it worked okay, except that Rickea could not be the linebacker in the paint that Dye had been. Couple that deficiency with Key’s absence and no shock that the LVs interior defense seriously declined.
Next season (assuming Kellie recruits a number two post), Hollingshead is the perfect fit with Puckett and Striplin being good next options. When you consider this role in the broader defensive scheme and not just point production, I think Hollingshead will be an overall improvement. As with Rickea, I would keep Holllingshead on the floor as much as possible (in this role) and so I would not use her in the suboptimal role of Key's back-up unless forced to by circumstances.
The “I can do everything” Jordan Horston slot: We come to the “bacon saving” decision from Rickea to use her covid year. She will slot in here and it will be a big offensive upgrade. Rickea could put up Caitlin Clark numbers in this role. Rickea showed she can be a very good perimeter defender. I do expect a little defensive drop off from Jordan simply because JH is a super elite defender but overall Rickea is an upgrade in the spot. Who backs up Rickea is the question. Wynn has the athleticism for the role but has to take a big step forward in her all round game this offseason. I am not sure Puckett has the necessary athleticism but I suppose she could be an option as well.
Point Guard- Short answer: Destiny Wells and a year more experienced Jaz Powell will be an upgrade over Walker and this year’s version of Powell. I think Miles, also with an extra year of development, will be a solid contributor when needed to fill in.
Shooting guard—Tess and Justine. I am actually very pro-Tess and I expect her game to jump another level but I think LVs best chance to become a legit title contender is for Justine to make a Rae Burrell caliber jump from her freshman to sophomore season and become the primary option in that slot. Regardless of who starts, though I think next year's tandem will also be an upgrade from this year's.
Conclusion. The 2023-24 team will be a better team at each position than the 2022-23 team. I believe that they will also gel much faster than last year's team.
But what is their ceiling?
If we go back to 2021-22 before the injuries, the LVs were a top 5 team who hung their identity on defense. This year’s team was better offensively but was nowhere near as dominating on defense. I think next year will be a best of both worlds. The LVs will be a top ten team who will give everyone fits due to their defense. They also will be playing the same style as SC and LSU and it is hard to see the LVs beating those teams at their own game but on the right night, it could happen, as we saw in the SEC tournament vs. LSU.
I think they will be in the hunt for the SEC title and should certainly be able to get the elite 8, after which it becomes anybody’s game.
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