Daloth
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Warning, this is decently long:
tl:dr
Don't take the huge spread against App State into thinking TN isn't as good because App State is terrible. Vegas used the media to make a ton of money off the ignorant average fan, like they do every year, because they know these teams better than their own coaches do.
And they are going to do it again this week in the opposite spectrum, and maybe try again once more against Florida. But pretty soon there will be too much tape for them to pull it off.
I keep seeing people talk about how UT being 20.5 point favorites over appalachian state and our game being so close is a testament to how bad APP state actually is compared to how good UT is. But the thing is, that's now how betting lines or point spreads work. For an in depth explanation of exactly how Vegas wins money, this is a good start,
Why Sports Betting is Profitable - Winning Percentages
However, Vegas is about one thing and one thing only. Making money. Last year, they predicted nearly every single one of our games perfectly, including the games we didn't expect (OU and Alabama come to mind) and we were consistently favored over any team in the country on a neutral field in Vegas hypothetical scenarios. They had a damn good idea of just how good we were, and it is very unlikely they "forgot" how to properly rate every other college football team in this process, and that includes App State. They bet this way because they knew the games could go either way and legitimately wanted 50/50 betting roughly on both sides.
Vegas knew App state was coming in with 17 returning starters, including an elite QB in any conference, off an 11-2 season and a bowl win. They knew they had one of the best defenses statistically in the nation, and they knew they would play out of their minds with a full off season to prepare. They also have years of Debord and Butch in big games now and know they are Vanilla offensively as long as they can be early in the season. So, why would they give a team of APP states caliber (a team who is now favored to win THEIR next game by 21) such a huge point spread in such an obvious scenario for a closer game?
It's quite simple.
They wanted betters to jump on the hype train of Tennessee, and the lack of the general public knowing how good App State was, which they won't know until the end of the season after App state most likely goes undefeated the rest of the season.
Week 1 is when Vegas can "get hit" because nobody knows how good teams are, but teams like UT and App State, with very little coaching and player changes, are easier to predict for guys who's job is to follows sports, and teams, year round.
The huge spread was proven true for betters as the betting line slowly went from 20.5 to 22.5 by the start of the game. This means that the public bet heavily on Tennessee to beat the spread, which is what Vegas wanted. You set betting lines to get 50/50 bets to minimize losses in Vegas, but the line moving enormously like that means Vegas would either make a lot of money or lose a lot of money on the game.
Guess what happened? Vegas made a killing on this point spread. And they're going to use the public's perception that App State is "weak" to make even more money on Tennessee this weekend at Bristol with the 10 point spread. I wouldn't be shocked to see TN win this game by 3 TDs+ and Vegas make a killing on the average ignorant better 2 weeks into the season thinking VT must be much better than little APP state because they're in a big conference and have better players top to bottom.
We will see this again against UF regardless of what we do before them because of public perception, but once UF is over you can expect Vegas to start putting lines on us like normal, because with the money they've made off us (and a few other big teams losing, OU/Houston come to mind) they can be slightly more risky than normal at this point in the season.
After all, which is more likely... That Vegas took a risk to make a lot of money, or that they were 2 TD's off predicting a team that they had lines on nearly perfectly all of last year, even when talking heads and fans would claim they'd lose by multiple scores, in which very few of the important players left?
Why Sports Betting is Profitable - Winning Percentages
However, Vegas is about one thing and one thing only. Making money. Last year, they predicted nearly every single one of our games perfectly, including the games we didn't expect (OU and Alabama come to mind) and we were consistently favored over any team in the country on a neutral field in Vegas hypothetical scenarios. They had a damn good idea of just how good we were, and it is very unlikely they "forgot" how to properly rate every other college football team in this process, and that includes App State. They bet this way because they knew the games could go either way and legitimately wanted 50/50 betting roughly on both sides.
Vegas knew App state was coming in with 17 returning starters, including an elite QB in any conference, off an 11-2 season and a bowl win. They knew they had one of the best defenses statistically in the nation, and they knew they would play out of their minds with a full off season to prepare. They also have years of Debord and Butch in big games now and know they are Vanilla offensively as long as they can be early in the season. So, why would they give a team of APP states caliber (a team who is now favored to win THEIR next game by 21) such a huge point spread in such an obvious scenario for a closer game?
It's quite simple.
They wanted betters to jump on the hype train of Tennessee, and the lack of the general public knowing how good App State was, which they won't know until the end of the season after App state most likely goes undefeated the rest of the season.
Week 1 is when Vegas can "get hit" because nobody knows how good teams are, but teams like UT and App State, with very little coaching and player changes, are easier to predict for guys who's job is to follows sports, and teams, year round.
The huge spread was proven true for betters as the betting line slowly went from 20.5 to 22.5 by the start of the game. This means that the public bet heavily on Tennessee to beat the spread, which is what Vegas wanted. You set betting lines to get 50/50 bets to minimize losses in Vegas, but the line moving enormously like that means Vegas would either make a lot of money or lose a lot of money on the game.
Guess what happened? Vegas made a killing on this point spread. And they're going to use the public's perception that App State is "weak" to make even more money on Tennessee this weekend at Bristol with the 10 point spread. I wouldn't be shocked to see TN win this game by 3 TDs+ and Vegas make a killing on the average ignorant better 2 weeks into the season thinking VT must be much better than little APP state because they're in a big conference and have better players top to bottom.
We will see this again against UF regardless of what we do before them because of public perception, but once UF is over you can expect Vegas to start putting lines on us like normal, because with the money they've made off us (and a few other big teams losing, OU/Houston come to mind) they can be slightly more risky than normal at this point in the season.
After all, which is more likely... That Vegas took a risk to make a lot of money, or that they were 2 TD's off predicting a team that they had lines on nearly perfectly all of last year, even when talking heads and fans would claim they'd lose by multiple scores, in which very few of the important players left?
tl:dr
Don't take the huge spread against App State into thinking TN isn't as good because App State is terrible. Vegas used the media to make a ton of money off the ignorant average fan, like they do every year, because they know these teams better than their own coaches do.
And they are going to do it again this week in the opposite spectrum, and maybe try again once more against Florida. But pretty soon there will be too much tape for them to pull it off.
