Why I think (hope?) it's going to be Bailey

#1
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#1
He's the only one who doesn't make me nervous as a cat when he drops back to pass.

I know this is not exactly a scientific analysis. And I can only watch film on Milton and Hooker. But all three of the other guys have some troublesome tendencies, and for every "wow" throw, it seems like they are wildly inaccurate on three or four others. Also Hooker and Maurer try to stick the ball into some extremely tight windows with double and triple coverage. Sometimes it works out...other times, yikes.

I love that the other three QBs can run, but Bailey is no "octopus falling out of a tree" (as someone said about Clausen). He seems to feel pressure pretty well and knows when to step up or take off. I just don't know if having wheels or better escapability will be enough to offset that "uh oh" feeling I get with the other guys.

I watched every snap of Milton's game against Michigan State last night, and while he had pretty decent numbers (32 of 51, 300 yds., 62.7%), he routinely threw lasers at close targets or waaaay under the chains on possession downs, leading to lots of punts (sounds kinda familiar) and a loss. He didn't throw any INTs, but he dang near collapsed an opposing lineman's spleen with one of his bullets and had several other near INTs as well. He also had 0 TDs in that game and his average per completion was only 5.9 yds.

Don't get me wrong. I'm hoping against hope that Heupel can work his magic. I'd love to see a guy as big and powerful as Milton back there terrorizing opposing DCs. But maybe I'm just worn out on feeling my heart in my throat with every snap (like the last several years) and just want somebody who can reliably move the chains for a change.
 
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#2

sjt18

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#2
That's purely subjective though. I actually disagree. Hooker doesn't act nervous. Neither Milton or Maurer have HB's patience which can be either a good or bad thing depending on the situation.

Supposedly what we saw from HB in the O&W game was not consistent with his performance over the spring- in a good way. Hooker had a solid outing with one mistake... but he was the only one of the three that played all of his reps with the "White" team. For most of the game, the White team was the 1's against the 1's. When considering only plays with the "White" O, Hooker had the best day. Maurer had the second most yards. HB had the least. Most of his yardage and "wow" plays came with and against guys who will be on the scout team this fall.

Also, we just watched a guy flounder for 5 years in part because he was unwilling and/or unable to throw into tight windows. You don't beat good teams without being able to do that. It does heighten risks. It does take time to get good at it.

I think anyone who thinks they know who the starter will be is way ahead of the facts. They will likely come out of the summer with an "order" of some kind but all 4 guys will get a chance to win the job next month. If I were betting, I would place even money on Hooker/HB. If either of the other two can become consistent and eliminate the mental mistakes then they will likely pass those two because they have better arms and feet.

As a Vol fan, I hope Heupel can fix Milton. By far he has the most physical upside and arm.
 
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#3
I predict coaches experiment with all 4 thru the 1st 3 games and won't settle on the 'starter' until the week of the UF game and will keep a secret until game time so UF will have to prepare for 2-3 qbs. With the exception one of them plays lights out once the season starts and separates from the others quickly. Its all a guess right now.
 
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#4
That's purely subjective though. I actually disagree. Hooker doesn't act nervous. Neither Milton or Maurer have HB's patience which can be either a good or bad thing depending on the situation.

Supposedly what we saw from HB in the O&W game was not consistent with his performance over the spring- in a good way. Hooker had a solid outing with one mistake... but he was the only one of the three that played all of his reps with the "White" team. For most of the game, the White team was the 1's against the 1's. When considering only plays with the "White" O, Hooker had the best day. Maurer had the second most yards. HB had the least. Most of his yardage and "wow" plays came with and against guys who will be on the scout team this fall.

Also, we just watched a guy flounder for 5 years in part because he was unwilling and/or unable to throw into tight windows. You don't beat good teams without being able to do that. It does heighten risks. It does take time to get good at it.

I think anyone who thinks they know who the starter will be is way ahead of the facts. They will likely come out of the summer with an "order" of some kind but all 4 guys will get a chance to win the job next month. If I were betting, I would place even money on Hooker/HB. If either of the other two can become consistent and eliminate the mental mistakes then they will likely pass those two because they have better arms and feet.

As a Vol fan, I hope Heupel can fix Milton. By far he has the most physical upside and arm.
I actually agree with much of what you are saying here, sjt18. I don't have the X and O chops to really do a deep dive into each of these guys. And my usual tendency as an eternal optimist is to want to go hell for leather and root like everything for Milton to take the job and run with it. It IS a very subjective take, gut feeling, etc.

And Hooker doesn't make me as nervous as Milton or Maurer -- but I guess I feel like he relies on his legs a little too much. Also have seen him throw some real ducks. I'm desperate for a solid QB who marches us relentlessly down the field with few mistakes and a good yards per catch average. I think our won loss record would be much more positive with simple competency. I'll root like heck for whoever gets the job and hope they wash the BVS out of my system for once and all.
 
#5

sjt18

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#5
I predict coaches experiment with all 4 thru the 1st 3 games and won't settle on the 'starter' until the week of the UF game and will keep a secret until game time so UF will have to prepare for 2-3 qbs. With the exception one of them plays lights out once the season starts and separates from the others quickly. Its all a guess right now.
You could be right but I think that would be a massive mistake. IMHO, they have to whittle it down to two guys by BGSU. Preferably there will be a 1 and 2 with the 2 getting work after the game is out of hand (assuming). Otherwise, I hope they give both an opportunity to play into the #1 spot.

You aren't going to make everyone happy. Bailey and Maurer are both likely transfers if they aren't in the top 2. Being a QB himself, I think Heupel understands you can only have one at a time.
 
#8

1vol8

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#8
He's the only one who doesn't make me nervous as a cat when he drops back to pass.

I know this is not exactly a scientific analysis. And I can only watch film on Milton and Hooker. But all three of the other guys have some troublesome tendencies, and for every "wow" throw, it seems like they are wildly inaccurate on three or four others. Also Hooker and Maurer try to stick the ball into some extremely tight windows with double and triple coverage. Sometimes it works out...other times, yikes.

I love that the other three QBs can run, but Bailey is no "octopus falling out of a tree" (as someone said about Clausen). He seems to feel pressure pretty well and knows when to step up or take off. I just don't know if having wheels or better escapability will be enough to offset that "uh oh" feeling I get with the other guys.

I watched every snap of Milton's game against Michigan State last night, and while he had pretty decent numbers (32 of 51, 300 yds., 62.7%), he routinely threw lasers at close targets or waaaay under the chains on possession downs, leading to lots of punts (sounds kinda familiar) and a loss. He didn't throw any INTs, but he dang near collapsed an opposing lineman's spleen with one of his bullets and had several other near INTs as well. He also had 0 TDs in that game and his average per completion was only 5.9 yds.

Don't get me wrong. I'm hoping against hope that Heupel can work his magic. I'd love to see a guy as big and powerful as Milton back there terrorizing opposing DCs. But maybe I'm just worn out on feeling my heart in my throat with every snap (like the last several years) and just want somebody who can reliably move the chains for a change.
I get that the others make you nervous. But the fact that they are willing to thread a needle IS what you need to beat better teams. You also may need a qb that can escape pressure and throw on the run. If UT had a great o line, I’d say HB may be hard to beat out. I think people are putting too much stock into the spring game. HBs first TD was 3s vs 3s. His second was 1s vs 3s. His only other TD drive was ran in by a RB which was 1s vs 1s. His games last year vs stiff secondaries wasn’t all that impressive. In fact, very JGish. Sure he had a high competition % but dink and dunk will get you blown out by games end. How many times do we have to see the evidence of this before we collectively say “give me the guy that takes the chances that make me nervous”? That’s football. And unfortunately our team isn’t dominant enough to take a safe approach and still win.
 
#11

FLVOL_79

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#11
He's the only one who doesn't make me nervous as a cat when he drops back to pass.

I know this is not exactly a scientific analysis. And I can only watch film on Milton and Hooker. But all three of the other guys have some troublesome tendencies, and for every "wow" throw, it seems like they are wildly inaccurate on three or four others. Also Hooker and Maurer try to stick the ball into some extremely tight windows with double and triple coverage. Sometimes it works out...other times, yikes.

I love that the other three QBs can run, but Bailey is no "octopus falling out of a tree" (as someone said about Clausen). He seems to feel pressure pretty well and knows when to step up or take off. I just don't know if having wheels or better escapability will be enough to offset that "uh oh" feeling I get with the other guys.

I watched every snap of Milton's game against Michigan State last night, and while he had pretty decent numbers (32 of 51, 300 yds., 62.7%), he routinely threw lasers at close targets or waaaay under the chains on possession downs, leading to lots of punts (sounds kinda familiar) and a loss. He didn't throw any INTs, but he dang near collapsed an opposing lineman's spleen with one of his bullets and had several other near INTs as well. He also had 0 TDs in that game and his average per completion was only 5.9 yds.

Don't get me wrong. I'm hoping against hope that Heupel can work his magic. I'd love to see a guy as big and powerful as Milton back there terrorizing opposing DCs. But maybe I'm just worn out on feeling my heart in my throat with every snap (like the last several years) and just want somebody who can reliably move the chains for a change.
Its 2021. If you want it to be science, its science.
 
#12

whodeycin85

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#12
I get that the others make you nervous. But the fact that they are willing to thread a needle IS what you need to beat better teams. You also may need a qb that can escape pressure and throw on the run. If UT had a great o line, I’d say HB may be hard to beat out. I think people are putting too much stock into the spring game. HBs first TD was 3s vs 3s. His second was 1s vs 3s. His only other TD drive was ran in by a RB which was 1s vs 1s. His games last year vs stiff secondaries wasn’t all that impressive. In fact, very JGish. Sure he had a high competition % but dink and dunk will get you blown out by games end. How many times do we have to see the evidence of this before we collectively say “give me the guy that takes the chances that make me nervous”? That’s football. And unfortunately our team isn’t dominant enough to take a safe approach and still win.
I think people just are conditioned by the JG poop show for the last few years...some stats I found interesting

ADOT ( Avg depth target)
HB 8.92
JG 10.27
JS 13.28

Depth Adjusted Accuracy vs comp %
HB 36.01 vs 70.59
JG 51.95 vs 62.05
JS 36.57 vs 57.14

This shows me HB doesn't take chances and just takes what the D gives him...that works vs the Vandys and bad teams. But won't win big ones on the SEC
 
#13

1vol8

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#13
I think people just are conditioned by the JG poop show for the last few years...some stats I found interesting

ADOT ( Avg depth target)
HB 8.92
JG 10.27
JS 13.28

Depth Adjusted Accuracy vs comp %
HB 36.01 vs 70.59
JG 51.95 vs 62.05
JS 36.57 vs 57.14

This shows me HB doesn't take chances and just takes what the D gives him...that works vs the Vandys and bad teams. But won't win big ones on the SEC
Wow! That’s very interesting. Kind of sheds new light
 
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#14
Hooker doesn't make me nervous; he was pretty good at VT; but I think Bailey is the better QB.

I love Maurer, but I do agree ... watching him play can be stressful. He takes off way too much and tries to force things too often. He's been here 3 years now, though, so hopefully he's learned how to reign it in some.

I'm still very skeptical of the great Milton experiment. He wasn't accurate in high school and he wasn't accurate in Michigan. I don't think he's suddenly going to become accurate.
 
#15

sjt18

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#15
I think people just are conditioned by the JG poop show for the last few years...some stats I found interesting

ADOT ( Avg depth target)
HB 8.92
JG 10.27
JS 13.28

Depth Adjusted Accuracy vs comp %
HB 36.01 vs 70.59
JG 51.95 vs 62.05
JS 36.57 vs 57.14

This shows me HB doesn't take chances and just takes what the D gives him...that works vs the Vandys and bad teams. But won't win big ones on the SEC
Yes. If the fatal flaw of Milton is mistakes and wild passes then HB's is not taking the chances that win for you against top competition.... not being able to or willing to throw into tight windows consistently.
 
#16

sjt18

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#16
Hooker doesn't make me nervous, but I think Bailey is the better QB.

I love Maurer, but I do agree ... watching him play can be stressful. He takes off way too much and tries to force things too often. He's been here 3 years now, though, so hopefully he's learned how to reign it in some.

I'm still very skeptical of the great Milton experiment. He wasn't accurate in high school and he wasn't accurate in Michigan. I don't think he's suddenly going to become accurate.
Milton is either hot or cold. When hot, he makes some absolutely amazing throws. When he's cold... he throws to the other guys too much and appears to get a Sax complex.
 
#17

utvols83

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#17
Keep in mind that Bailey was a freshman last season. Him being able to see the field well enough and be patient enough to take what the defense gave him is a great sign of his mental ability and potential as a QB. I don't take it as a negative at all. He wasn't exactly working within an explosive system yet he managed to move the offense and protect the ball for the most part. I think we've also got to keep in mind that Maurer and Milton also have relatively little playing experience. Any one of them could take a big leap forward. It wouldn't surprise me if we ended up with four QBs that are capable of putting up points in Heupel's system. I still don't see Hooker as being the guy unless you want the offense to really lean on the running game...but I could easily be wrong.
 
#18

utvols83

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#18
Yes. If the fatal flaw of Milton is mistakes and wild passes then HB's is not taking the chances that win for you against top competition.... not being able to or willing to throw into tight windows consistently.
How exactly does HB have a "fatal flaw" after one freshman season? He hasn't played a ton. You almost have to consider his high school film to make a more complete picture of his game...and it's full of deep throws and tight window throws. I get that some freshmen come in and light it up from the get-go, but that's uncommon. We've still got to put his performances in a proper perspective.
 
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#19
How exactly does HB have a "fatal flaw" after one freshman season? He hasn't played a ton. You almost have to consider his high school film to make a more complete picture of his game...and it's full of deep throws and tight window throws. I get that some freshmen come in and light it up from the get-go, but that's uncommon. We've still got to put his performances in a proper perspective.
I agree.

There's a lot of analysis of HB's flaws on VN that seem to ignore his entire high school career. In particular, the idea that he can't throw the deep ball or in tight windows is downright goofy; he threw it all the time in HS. People are judging HB on an extremely limited sample size where, ironically, he overthrow his receivers, so they now conclude that he doesn't have a "strong arm".

I'm not saying HB is 100% the guy. Between Hooker, Bailey, and Maurer, I think they are close in a lot of ways, with different strengths and weaknesses. Just that a lot of the analysis of HB's flaws here on VN seems off to me as someone who's watched a lot of his high school performances. The idea that he's the new Justin Worley, who can hit short passes but is limited on the deep ball, is just flat-out wrong.
 
#23

84Volfan

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#23
I agree.

There's a lot of analysis of HB's flaws on VN that seem to ignore his entire high school career. In particular, the idea that he can't throw the deep ball or in tight windows is downright goofy; he threw it all the time in HS. People are judging HB on an extremely limited sample size where, ironically, he overthrow his receivers, so they now conclude that he doesn't have a "strong arm".

I'm not saying HB is 100% the guy. Between Hooker, Bailey, and Maurer, I think they are close in a lot of ways, with different strengths and weaknesses. Just that a lot of the analysis of HB's flaws here on VN seems off to me as someone who's watched a lot of his high school performances. The idea that he's the new Justin Worley, who can hit short passes but is limited on the deep ball, is just flat-out wrong.
To take this one step further: Due to.Covid quarantine HB didn't get much practice to adapt to SEC speeds, nor to create receiver/QB cohesiveness.

Learning the playbook and then applying it on field with limited practice are two totally different things. Can't make judgement on a limited sample from last season with Bailey nor the other qbs tbh until we watch them in CJH offense.

Wasn't a big fan of the hire and still a bit apprehensive about it, but one thing I completely trust CJH on is the QB position. Going to 100% support whoever he decides on
 
#24
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#24
I think people just are conditioned by the JG poop show for the last few years...some stats I found interesting

ADOT ( Avg depth target)
HB 8.92
JG 10.27
JS 13.28

Depth Adjusted Accuracy vs comp %
HB 36.01 vs 70.59
JG 51.95 vs 62.05
JS 36.57 vs 57.14

This shows me HB doesn't take chances and just takes what the D gives him...that works vs the Vandys and bad teams. But won't win big ones on the SEC
First ... excellent job with the stats. YOU ARE THE MAN!

However, if you will ... I respectfully, disagree. Maybe. Sort of...
You would have to know what the QB coach is teaching his QB.
For instance, (back in the day) David Cutcliffe's mantra appears to have been, "When the clock in the QBs head reaches 0 - throw it out of bounds and move on to the next play."
We have no idea what the marching orders were that the QBs were given.
In fact, it is possible that different QBs are given a different set of instructions, based on their skill set and tendencies.

JGs years of experience - whatever they were, should have resulted in 'naturally' better results - based on nothing be experiencing 'time in the saddle.'
It does not appear to be a secret that xHCJP, prevented his OC from running the show. The ultimate recipe for disaster .... ensued.
 
#25

butchna

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#25
Yes. If the fatal flaw of Milton is mistakes and wild passes then HB's is not taking the chances that win for you against top competition.... not being able to or willing to throw into tight windows consistently.
When’s that been tested…in an even setting? In his starts, he was saddled with not only ultra conservative gameplans but also a quick hook where Shrout was over his shoulder in that weird Pruitt timeshare rotation. Hard to get in any kind of rhythm and even more difficult to take chances…once again because of the quick trigger finger. We can keep droning over and over about who he was throwing against and to in the O&W Game but the THROWS? There were more than a few that fit in tight windows and covered some distance and only 3 weren’t completed. In any case, all the candidates have the same opportunity in front of them and 3 weeks to reach the top of the pecking order for the honor of starting against Bowling Green. No sigh of relief should be expressed even then because then you have to KEEP it. Mizzou took on a former TCU starter and he won the starting job and lasted almost the first half against us…never to be seen again.
 

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