Who they have played vs. who we have played

#1
KnoxRealtorVOL

KnoxRealtorVOL

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#1
After surfing the Florida message boards a good bit, I've seen plenty of chatter about how Tennessee "hasn't played anyone" and "struggled with some of the worst teams in the country," comparing stats from their first 3 games vs our first 3 games. All of the "college football live" type shows have been making the same points, talking about how good Florida's defense is and saying they may be the best defense in the country.

I decided to put some stats behind all this chatter, so I'll just drop this off here:

CFB CBS Sports Rankings - CBSSports.com

In 3 games, UF has played:

#87 out of 128 Kentucky
#117 out of 128 Mass
#127 out of 128 North Texas

Average rank = 110

Meanwhile,

In 3 games, UT has played:

#59 out of 128 App State
#47 out of 128 Va Tech
#78 out of 128 Ohio

Average rank = 61

The lowest ranked team we've played is still 10 spots better than the highest ranked team they have played.

Furthermore, in that time, their defense has allowed just under 5 points per game, which is quite impressive. Tennessee's defense has allowed 18 points per game. A roughly 13 point per game difference under dramatically different competition. It's a decent margin, but not as big as one would think considering who they've played and who we've played. The teams we've played aren't great teams by any stretch, but they're capable of scoring points:

Through 3 games: Mass, UK, and N. Texas are averaging a combined 18 points per game.

Through 3 games: App State, VA Tech, and Ohio are averaging 30 points per game.

That's about the same margin as the difference between the points per game our defense and their defense is allowing.

Also,

Our offense is currently putting up 31 points per game, theirs is putting up 33 points per game, again, against dramatically weaker competition.


This is not a #WGWTFA prediction by any means, but more of a "What do we really know about Florida?" kind of situation. The only thing we really know is that through 3 weeks, their stats really are coming against the absolute worst teams in the country, and aside from a defensive margin of 13 PPG (against teams that average 12 offensive PPG less per game already), our stats are very similar. We're just playing better teams.

Final note: Saturday their competition ranks almost 100 spots higher than their current average.

Just a few thoughts.
 
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#3
#3
Nice post! Also, Florida's first 3 opponents combined for 9 wins last season with no bowl appearances. Our first 3 opponents combined for 26 wins and all 3 went to bowl games.
 
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#5
#5
UF's schedule is reminiscent of the cupcake schedule Virginia Tech used to play a decade or so ago. The media would gush over the Hokies until conference play began and then would wonder what happened after a defeat to their first tough opponent. I hope to see this same scenario play out this Saturday.
 
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#6
#6
This is not a #WGWTFA prediction by any means, but more of a "What do we really know about Florida?"

Good post. What does #WGWTFA stand for
 
#8
#8
B EaZy40 said:
Nice post! Also, Florida's first 3 opponents combined for 9 wins last season with no bowl appearances. Our first 3 opponents combined for 26 wins and all 3 went to bowl games.
Click to expand...

This, + OP's xellent findings, are very enlightening !

Good gracious -- let's just hit our FG's and hold 'em on a few 4th downs (or just get the ball on 3rd downs), and we will end this streak !!

Go VOLS!! TEAM 120, you have this.
 
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#9
#9
chatt-townVOL said:
After surfing the Florida message boards a good bit, I've seen plenty of chatter about how Tennessee "hasn't played anyone" and "struggled with some of the worst teams in the country," comparing stats from their first 3 games vs our first 3 games. All of the "college football live" type shows have been making the same points, talking about how good Florida's defense is and saying they may be the best defense in the country.

I decided to put some stats behind all this chatter, so I'll just drop this off here:

CFB CBS Sports Rankings - CBSSports.com

In 3 games, UF has played:

#87 out of 128 Kentucky
#117 out of 128 Mass
#127 out of 128 North Texas

Average rank = 110

Meanwhile,

In 3 games, UT has played:

#59 out of 128 App State
#47 out of 128 Va Tech
#78 out of 128 Ohio

Average rank = 61

The lowest ranked team we've played is still 10 spots better than the highest ranked team they have played.

Furthermore, in that time, their defense has allowed just under 5 points per game, which is quite impressive. Tennessee's defense has allowed 18 points per game. A roughly 13 point per game difference under dramatically different competition. It's a decent margin, but not as big as one would think considering who they've played and who we've played. The teams we've played aren't great teams by any stretch, but they're capable of scoring points:

Through 3 games: Mass, UK, and N. Texas are averaging a combined 18 points per game.

Through 3 games: App State, VA Tech, and Ohio are averaging 30 points per game.

That's about the same margin as the difference between the points per game our defense and their defense is allowing.

Also,

Our offense is currently putting up 31 points per game, theirs is putting up 33 points per game, again, against dramatically weaker competition.


This is not a #WGWTFA prediction by any means, but more of a "What do we really know about Florida?" kind of situation. The only thing we really know is that through 3 weeks, their stats really are coming against the absolute worst teams in the country, and aside from a defensive margin of 13 PPG (against teams that average 12 offensive PPG less per game already), our stats are very similar. We're just playing better teams.

Final note: Saturday their competition ranks almost 100 spots higher than their current average.

Just a few thoughts.
Click to expand...

Very nice, I enjoyed that. Makes a lot of sense.
 
#14
#14
interesting. i'd feel more comfortable with this, if a) we'd played better against App and Ohio, and b) if we were healthy going in to the game.

the problem is, while the level of competition we've played is clearly different than what they've played, we've not done enough to build confidence.

so, while it' is interesting, i don't know that the 'battle tested' theory makes that much of a difference. maybe it will?

bottom line, we're having to look someplace other than how we've played to find a reason we should/might/can/will win.
 
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#17
#17
normalfootballfan said:
Where does Miami beating Appy State 45-10 fit into that equation?
Click to expand...

I can't wait until we're a little further into the season and people realize Miami is MUCH better than anyone thinks they are.

The golden fountain of talent that is South Florida is now playing for a team that has a competent coach behind the wheel.

Miami is about to be scary, and they may already be there.
 
#18
#18
chatt-townVOL said:
I can't wait until we're a little further into the season and people realize Miami is MUCH better than anyone thinks they are.

The golden fountain of talent that is South Florida is now playing for a team that has a competent coach behind the wheel.

Miami is about to be scary, and they may already be there.
Click to expand...

So you're saying they are that much better than us? :mf_surrender: Maybe next season will be our year
 
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#21
#21
normalfootballfan said:
Where does Miami beating Appy State 45-10 fit into that equation?
Click to expand...

Not taking anything away from Miami as it was good win against a pretty good team on the road but

1. Appy State had all off season to prepare a game plan for Tennessee and one week for Miami

2. It should have been no problem to get the Miami players convinced Appy State was good after seeing the Tennessee game film.

3. After Appy State got a 55 yard TD run from their star RB Marcus Cox called back for holding and Cox was injured on the play and maybe out for the season the air kind of went out of their sails against the Hurricanes. I know its next man up but Cox was their best offensive threat and when Appy had to go to the passing game they just couldn't compete.

But one could also ask how the 49-0 beat down of Boston College by Virginia Tech figures in to the equation as well.
 
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#24
#24
1974Vol said:
normalfootballfan said:
Where does Miami beating Appy State 45-10 fit into that equation?
Click to expand...

Not taking anything away from Miami as it was good win against a pretty good team on the road but

1. Appy State had all off season to prepare a game plan for Tennessee and one week for Miami

2. It should have been no problem to get the Miami players convinced Appy State was good after seeing the Tennessee game film.

3. After Appy State got a 55 yard TD run from their star RB Marcus Cox called back for holding and Cox was injured on the play and maybe out for the season the air kind of went out of their sails against the Hurricanes. I know its next man up but Cox was their best offensive threat and when Appy had to go to the passing game they just couldn't compete.

But one could also ask how the 49-0 beat down of Boston College by Virginia Tech figures in to the equation as well.
Click to expand...

I would say the state of Massachusetts only cares about pro football
 
#25
#25
chatt-townVOL said:
Anybody have any idea what this guy is talking about?
Click to expand...

You can't pick and choose what's relevant. If you list out all those stats about opposing teams, isn't it also relevant what those teams have done against similar opponents, like Appy v. Miami?

Don't get me wrong, I hope we blow the doors off Fl but it's just hard to imagine based on what I've seen so far.
 
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