Who has more roster talent UT or WVU?

#52
#52
37620VOL said:
A few different threads have discussed the talent level for our week 1 game. Here is my shot of looking at it analytically.

Methodology:
1. I only care about the roster talent likely to play a significant role. So based on an abbreviated 2-deep for each team (39 players each team, no punters/kickers).
2. I used the 247 ranking system which uses the following point system.

100 - 98 = Five-star prospect. One of the top 30 players in the nation.
97 - 90 = Four-star prospect. One of the top 300 players in the nation.
89 - 80 = Three-star prospect. One of the top 10% players in the nation.
79 - below = Two-star prospect.

3. If 247 did not rank a player, such as a transfer, I went to another ranking site and plugged in a number accordingly. I did this for 4 players.

Findings:
Here are the position group rankings.
View attachment 164800

Takeaway… in 7 out of 8 position groups UT is playing with 4 star talent. In 1 out of 8 position groups WVU is playing with 4 star talent. All position groups for both teams average 3 star or better, so neither is without legit D1 talent.

(Complete data sets to follow.) Thoughts?

@ptclaus98
@aaronvol
@VFL-82-JP
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Across the board we have the most talent. 22 players with a rating of .9000 or higher vs. just 6 for WVU but they are better at the most important position (QB). I'm expecting a shootout and turnovers will be critical. Could come down to who has the ball last
 
#54
#54
UT may have more talent but UT is dealing with a new staff and low confidence. There are a lot of factors that go into winning a football game and confidence is a major factor, not to mention learning a completely new scheme. I hope UT wins but this game reminds me of the UCLA game in 2009. A new staff vs a team that UT had much more talent but found ways to lose. That game would have been much different at the end of the season as would this game
 
#55
#55
Rudy123 said:
I can honestly see the WVU game going either way. We usually do well against non conference opponents. If we win, I will not be surprised and if we lose I will not be surprised. I think our bds will be the deciding factor in this game. Hope they play well
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OK, I'll be that guy. What in Vol Nation are "bds?"
 
#57
#57
KeepinUpWithJones said:
4-8 seems pretty quantifiable to me

Again hope I'm wrong but I don't love the idea of saying we have more talent than WVU. My fear is it causes UT fans to go to Charlotte expecting a win, when no objective person expects Pruitt to beat a highly regarded WVU team after going 4-8 last year and losing significant pieces to the draft from a bad team
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Sure we were 4-8 in 2017. But in 2016 we were 9-4 and highly regarded heading into 2017. Not sure that prior year record is a solid predictive trait.
 
#59
#59
37620VOL said:
A few different threads have discussed the talent level for our week 1 game. Here is my shot of looking at it analytically.

Methodology:
1. I only care about the roster talent likely to play a significant role. So based on an abbreviated 2-deep for each team (39 players each team, no punters/kickers).
2. I used the 247 ranking system which uses the following point system.

100 - 98 = Five-star prospect. One of the top 30 players in the nation.
97 - 90 = Four-star prospect. One of the top 300 players in the nation.
89 - 80 = Three-star prospect. One of the top 10% players in the nation.
79 - below = Two-star prospect.


Do that same analysis for UT versus TCU, or Wisconsin, or Washington, or OK State, Mich State and many others. UT wins on paper (HS rankings) every time. Now go play those teams and see who really has more talent........
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#60
#60
landscapingvol said:
UT may have more talent but UT is dealing with a new staff and low confidence. There are a lot of factors that go into winning a football game and confidence is a major factor, not to mention learning a completely new scheme. I hope UT wins but this game reminds me of the UCLA game in 2009. A new staff vs a team that UT had much more talent but found ways to lose. That game would have been much different at the end of the season as would this game
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Low confidence? false.
 
#62
#62
Sorry fellas, but having talent on a team only goes so far.

Fathom this, Alvin Kamara and John Kelly were on the bench while Jalen Hurd got 90% of the carries until he quit.

Coach Cornbread will take the existing talent, that closely resembles the above mentioned players, and put them in the correct position and order to succeed at a high level.

Go Vols!
 
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#63
#63
jdhallvols said:
Sorry fellas, but having talent on a team only goes so far.

Fathom this, Alvin Kamara and John Kelly were on the bench while Jalen Hurd got 90% of the carries until he quit.

Coach Cornbread will take the existing talent, that closely resembles the above mentioned players, and put them in the correct position and order to succeed at a high level.

Go Vols!
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You are correct, but thread asks who has more talent. UT does. Doesn't guarantee wins though.
 
#64
#64
aaronvol said:
Low confidence? false.
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Everyone is confident during practice but there is a huge difference between being confident during practice and walking onto the field before the game expecting to win. No matter how much you want to believe that going 4-8 doesn't affect a player's psyche, it does and some players have a very difficult time overcoming difficult seasons especially quarterbacks. It doesn't matter what sport it is either. The only thing that will cure a lack of confidence is winning, not practice.
 
#65
#65
One great QB can make all the difference in the world. Look at the year Cam Newton played at Auburn. The year before and after Auburn was not that great. However, with him it was a NC.
 
#66
#66
37620VOL said:
Sure we were 4-8 in 2017. But in 2016 we were 9-4 and highly regarded heading into 2017. Not sure that prior year record is a solid predictive trait.
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Believe it or not many simple power indices include previous year performance. You can create a simple predictive model that performs pretty well just by using wins and losses and the spread on said wins and losses from the prior year.
 
#68
#68
Smokeyone said:
They are one demential with a suspect D. I would think the Vols being a more complete and less dependent on a QB can overcome the advantage a QB gives WV.
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I think that some of these WVU fellers are individually demented (perhaps suffering from dementia) and a little suspect myself too! ;)
 
#69
#69
"If West Virginia loses it's because Tennessee had an extra week of practice" - Dana Holgorsen :cool:
 
#70
#70
VolsnRavens said:
"If West Virginia loses it's because Tennessee had an extra week of practice" - Dana Holgorsen :cool:
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Heh.

Perhaps the greatest irony is this: it is actually West Virginia who gets an extra week of practice.

Their fall camp started on Sunday, 29th of July; ours on the following Friday, the 3rd of August. Almost a full week later. Both teams have been practicing ever since, and will continue to practice right up to game day.

You can count it for yourself; just pull up a calendar. West Virginia will get a total of five weeks of practice by the 1st of September; the Vols will get four.

When you look past his words to the truth, it is really quite disingenuous of Dana.
 
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#72
#72
Confused as to why this is even a question. Recruiting over the last 4 years

UT - ranges between 4th (best) to 22nd (worst)
WVU - ranges between 35th (best) to 57th (worst)

Granted, they have one more proven QB and we all know too well that talent alone does not equal wins but how is there even a question as to who has more talent?

And long term, you can over perform with a bunch of 3 stars for a bit but you simply are not going to reliably beat teams that are comprised of 4 stars and a few 5s. Stats have shown time and time again that a teams season can be predicted within 1 game either way based upon their recruiting. It just shows how bad last season was - a real anomaly. Our recruiting has been good but middle of the pack for SEC, which is where we should have ended up last year, based on talent prediction, somewhere between 6-8 wins. There is a reason for the saying "Jimmies and Joes not Xs and Os".

Now that we have a coach actually focused on teaching football, a revved up team and are relatively injury free so far, it should be a normative expectation that our season goes back to that baseline. Pruitt can over-perform with 8 wins but to get much further he is going to have to consistently out recruit, which I think he is working on.
 
#73
#73
Gandalf said:
Confused as to why this is even a question. Recruiting over the last 4 years

UT - ranges between 4th (best) to 22nd (worst)
WVU - ranges between 35th (best) to 57th (worst)

Granted, they have one more proven QB and we all know too well that talent alone does not equal wins but how is there even a question as to who has more talent?

And long term, you can over perform with a bunch of 3 stars for a bit but you simply are not going to reliably beat teams that are comprised of 4 stars and a few 5s. Stats have shown time and time again that a teams season can be predicted within 1 game either way based upon their recruiting. It just shows how bad last season was - a real anomaly. Our recruiting has been good but middle of the pack for SEC, which is where we should have ended up last year, based on talent prediction, somewhere between 6-8 wins. There is a reason for the saying "Jimmies and Joes not Xs and Os".

Now that we have a coach actually focused on teaching football, a revved up team and are relatively injury free so far, it should be a normative expectation that our season goes back to that baseline. Pruitt can over-perform with 8 wins but to get much further he is going to have to consistently out recruit, which I think he is working on.
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In a contest of who has more HS 4-5 stars on their team UT also mops the floor (on paper) with Wisconsin, TCU, Washington, Michigan State, OK State etc etc. Play them on the field and tell me who has more "talent".
 
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